Methodological Aspects of the Tolerable Windows Approach

The tolerable windows approach (TWA) allows the climate policyformulation process to be safeguarded in the following way. First,guardrails are defined in order to exclude intolerable climatechange impacts, on the one hand, and unacceptable socioeconomicconsequences of climate change mitigation measures, on the other.Second, a scientific analysis is conducted to investigate thefeatures of those emission paths that are compatible with theguardrail constraints. The fundamental methodology of the TWA isbest described in terms of the theory of differentialinclusions. This emerging mathematical theory already providesnumerical methods applicable as long as the underlying integratedassessment models are of limited complexity. In order to identifyemissions corridors, we propose a novel calculation schemeapplicable also for large-scale integrated assessment models.     

Dynamical System Analysis and Forecasting of Deformation Produced by an Earthquake Fault

— We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2-D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3-D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space, we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformation fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time, given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large-scale, dynamical model for the fault. The map can be evaluated once to provide a short-term predictions or iterated to obtain a prediction for the long-term fault dynamics.     

The significance of channel recharge rates for estimating debris‐flow magnitude and frequency

The quantification of debris‐flow hazard requires estimates of debris‐flow frequency and magnitude. Several methods have been proposed to determine the probable volume of future debris flows from a given basin, but most have neglected to account for debris recharge rates over time, which may lead to underestimation of debris‐flow volumes in basins with rare debris flows. This paper deals with the determination of debris recharge rates in debris‐flow channels based on knowledge of debris storage and the elapsed time since the last debris flow. Data are obtained from coastal British Columbia and a relation is obtained across a sample of basins with similar terrain and climatic conditions. For Rennell Sound on the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands, the power‐law relation for area‐normalized recharge rate, R_t, versus elapsed time, t_e was R_t = 0·23t_e^?0·58 with an explained variance of 75 per cent. A difference in recharge rates may exist between creeks in logged and unlogged forested terrain. The power function for undisturbed terrain was R_t = 0·20t_e^?0·49, while the function for logged areas was R_t = 0·30t_e^?0·77. This result suggests that for the same elapsed time since the last debris flow, clearcut gullies tend to recharge at a slower rate than creeks in old growth forest. This finding requires verification, particularly for longer elapsed times since debris flow, but would have important implications for forest resource management in steep coastal terrain. This study demonstrates that commonly used encounter probability equations are inappropriate for recharge‐limited debris flow channels. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kyanite eclogite xenolith from the orthogneiss terrane of the Tisza Megaunit, Jánoshalma area, crystalline basement of southern Hungary

New evidence for high-pressure, eclogite facies metamorphism in the crystalline basement of the Tisza Megaunit (southern Hungary) is reported. The retrogressed mafic eclogite forms a small lens in the orthogneiss and it was found in the borehole near Jánoshalma. The carbonated eclogite contains the peak metamorphic assemblage omphacite + garnet + phengite + kyanite + clinozoizite + rutile + K-feldspar + quartz. Omphacite (Xjd_0.40–0.41Xdio_0.52–0.53Xhd_0.05Xaug_1.55–2.85) occurs in the matrix and as inclusions in garnet (Xpy_0.37–0.38Xgrs_0.21–0.22Xalm_0.39–0.40Xsps_0–0.01Xadr_0–0.01) and kyanite. Thermobarometry based on net-transfer reactions between garnet, omphacite, kyanite and phengite yields P–T conditions of 710 ± 10 °C and 2.6 ± 0.75 GPa. Retrogression during decompression is manifested by formation of symplectites; the most typical are diopside + plagioclase after omphacite, corundum + spinel + plagioclase after kyanite and biotite + plagioclase after phengite. Carbonatization along the veins of the retrogressed eclogite was probably coeval with formation of these symplectites. At places where carbonate is absent the rock was completely hydrated and retrogressed down to the greenschist facies with the development of actinolite. Similar eclogites together with abundant orthogneisses occur mainly in the eastern parts of the Tisza Megaunit, suggesting the existence of an ancient (possibly Variscan) subduction/accretionary complex.     

Power-law spectra of 1–2 GHz narrowband dm-spikes

Twelve examples of clouds of narrowband dm-spikes, observed by the Ondejov radiospectrograph in the 1–2 GHz frequency range, are analyzed. After transforming of the frequency scales to heights in the solar atmosphere, the indices of the power-law power spectra are determined. The derived power-law indices are scattered in a broad range of values (–0.80––2.85). In some cases they considerably deviate from the previously found value of –5/3. A change of the power-law index above logk2.5 was also found in some cases. In the two longest events the time evolution of their power spectra as well as their indices were studied. While in most parts of the radio spectra the spectral index remains constant, in one part its absolute value increases with the spike intensity increase. Finally, the results, especially the broad range of power-law indices, are briefly discussed.     

Heat contamination in groundwater sourced from heat pump for heating in Bratislava (Slovakia)’s historic centre

The aim of the study is to evaluate the warming effect (thermal contamination) of city centres with high building density. This phenomenon has a number of scientific and practical implications. The case study was conducted in Bratislava (Slovakia), in the geological environment of alluvial gravels of the Danube River, where a permanent warming of the subsurface in the city centre is experienced, which is mainly affected by high building density and underground utilities. Thanks to this thermal contamination, the heat pumps efficiency is greater in winter, while in summer, their effectiveness is lower. Economically, this negative phenomenon in the case of heat pumps has a positive effect, since it increases energy efficiency during the heating period. This phenomenon is not universal and depends on the specific boundary conditions of the geological settings and hydrogeological conditions.     

Late Cretaceous eclogite in the Eastern Rhodopes (Bulgaria): evidence for subduction under the Sredna Gora magmatic arc

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Rhodopes in Bulgaria and Greece represent a nappe stack of high-grade units with polymetamorphic history. Constraining the time of metamorphism in...