Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870–2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.     

Impact of climate variability on summer fires in a Mediterranean environment (northeastern Iberian Peninsula)

We analyse the impact of climate interannual variability on summer forest fires in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula). The study period covers 25 years, from 1983 to 2007. During this period more than 16000 fire events were recorded and the total burned area was more than 240 kha, i.e. around 7.5% of whole Catalonia. We show that the interannual variability of summer fires is significantly correlated with summer precipitation and summer maximum temperature. In addition, fires are significantly related to antecedent climate conditions, showing positive correlation with lagged precipitation and negative correlation with lagged temperatures, both with a time lag of two years, and negative correlation with the minimum temperature in the spring of the same year. The interaction between antecedent climate conditions and fire variability highlights the importance of climate not only in regulating fuel flammability, but also fuel structure. On the basis of these results, we discuss a simple regression model that explains up to 76% of the variance of the Burned Area and up to 91% of the variance of the number of fires. This simple regression model produces reliable out-of-sample predictions of the impact of climate variability on summer forest fires and it could be used to estimate fire response to different climate change scenarios, assuming that climate-vegetation-humans-fire interactions will not change significantly.     

Origin of atoll garnet in schists from the Alpuj��rride Complex (Central zone of the Betic Cordillera, Spain): Implications on the P-T evolution

Atoll-shaped and normal garnets from schists of the Betic Cordillera (Spain) were studied by electron microprobe, scanning electron microscopy and microstructural electron backscattered scanning diffraction (EBSD). Medium-grade schists contain a textural variety of atoll garnets, characterized by the presence of muscovite, annite, and quartz as main ??core?? phases. Zoning patterns, EBSD analyses and themobarometric data indicate that the micaceous intergrowths formed in most cases through breakdown of a first garnet generation, with orientation of micas being controlled by garnet (c*_mica//[111]*_Grt and c*_mica//[110]*_Grt as main crystallographic relationships). Rings formed from multiple nucleation and coalescence, with orientation being controlled, in some cases, by the relics of the initial garnet and more generally by mica orientation. P-T estimates indicate that the first stage of garnet growth occurred at relatively high P (9?C12?kbar/500?C550°C) whereas the second metamorphic stage occurred at lower P and slightly higher T conditions (5?C7?kbar/500?C600°C).     

3D-electrical resistivity tomography monitoring of salt transport in homogeneous and layered soil samples

Monitoring transport of dissolved substances in soil deposits is particularly relevant where safety is concerned, as in the case of geo-environmental barriers. Geophysical methods are very appealing, since they cover a wide domain, localising possible preferential flow paths and providing reliable links between geophysical quantities and hydrological variables. This paper describes a 3D laboratory application of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) used to monitor solute transport processes. Dissolution and transport tests on both homogeneous and heterogeneous samples were conducted in an instrumented oedometer cell. ERT was used to create maps of electrical conductivity of the monitored domain at different time intervals and to estimate concentration variations within the interstitial fluid. Comparisons with finite element simulations of the transport processes were performed to check the consistency of the results. Tests confirmed that the technique can monitor salt transport, infer the hydro-chemical behaviour of heterogeneous geomaterials and evaluate the performances of clay barriers.     

Structural and geochemical alterations in the Mg calcite bryozoan Myriapora truncata under elevated seawater pCO2 simulating ocean acidification

The possible effects of ocean acidification on the calcareous skeleton of the Mediterranean bryozoan Myriapora truncata (Pallas, 1766) were studied by transplanting live and dead colonies into an area of natural volcanic CO₂ vents at Ischia (Gulf of Naples, Tyrrhenian Sea), Italy. Morphology and geochemistry were compared between colonies from normal (mean pH = 8.07, min. pH 7.95), below‐normal (mean pH 7.66, min. pH 7.32) and acidic (mean pH 7.43, min. pH 6.83) conditions after colonies had been exposed in situ for 45 and 128 days. Both distal (juvenile) and proximal (adult) parts of the branches were investigated. Skeletons of live colonies in acidic pH site after 45 days of exposure were less corroded than those of dead colonies, suggesting that the organic tissues enveloping the skeleton play a protective role. Colonies remained alive at the below‐normal and acidic pH sites during the 45‐day experiment but corrosion was very striking after 128 days, with colonies from the acidic site showing significant loss of skeleton. Compared to the control, these colonies also had lower levels of Mg (mean 8 versus 9.5 wt% Mg) within their skeletons. Electron microprobe mapping showed Mg to be higher in the outer layers of the skeletal walls in colonies from the normal pH site. Corrosion of outer layers of the walls probably explains the lower Mg level found in colonies exposed to acidic conditions. As solubility of calcite increases with Mg content, the enrichment of Mg in outer layers of the skeleton should enhance the vulnerability of Myriapora truncata to dissolution. These findings raise concerns over the survival of bryozoans with Mg calcite skeletons in the face of predicted decreases in oceanic pH levels.     

Dissolved iron(III) speciation in the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

On voyages in the Iceland Basin in 2007 and 2009, we observed low (ca. 0.1 nM) total dissolved iron concentrations [dFe] in surface waters (<150 m), which increased with depth to ca. 0.2–0.9 nM. The surface water [dFe] was low due to low atmospheric Fe inputs combined with biological uptake, with Fe regeneration from microbial degradation of settling biogenic particles supplying dFe at depth. The organic ligand concentrations [L_T] in the surface waters ranged between 0.4 and 0.5 nM, with conditional stability constants (log K′_FeL) between 22.6 and 22.7. Furthermore, [L_T] was in excess of [dFe] throughout the water column, and dFe was therefore largely complexed by organic ligands (>99%). The ratio of [L_T]/[dFe] was used to analyse trends in Fe speciation. Enhanced and variable [L_T]/[dFe] ratios ranging between 1.6 and 5.8 were observed in surface waters; the ratio decreased with depth to a more constant [L_T]/[dFe] ratio in deep waters. In the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough, enhanced [L_T]/[dFe] ratios in surface waters resulted from decreases in [dFe], likely reflecting the conditions of Fe limitation of the phytoplankton community in the surface waters of the Iceland Basin and the high productivity in the Rockall Trough.Below the surface mixed layer, the observed increase in [dFe] resulted in a decrease of the [L_T]/[dFe] ratios (1.2–2.6) with depth. This indicated that the Fe binding ligand sites became occupied and even almost saturated at enhanced [dFe] in the deeper waters. Furthermore, our results showed a quasi-steady state in deep waters between dissolved organic Fe ligands and dFe, reflecting a balance between Fe removal by scavenging and Fe supply by remineralisation of biogenic particles with stabilisation through ligands.     

Sail pressures from full-scale, wind-tunnel and numerical investigations

The main results of a two-year project aimed at comparing full-scale tests, wind tunnel tests, and numerical analysis predictions are presented. Pressure measurements were obtained from both full-scale tests and wind tunnel tests, in upwind and downwind conditions. The upwind wind tunnel test condition was modelled using a Vortex Lattice code, while the downwind wind tunnel test was modelled using a Navier-Stokes code. The pressures obtained from the three different methods are compared on three horizontal sections of the headsail, mainsail and asymmetric spinnaker. In general the pressure from the three experiments showed good agreement. In particular, very good agreement was obtained between the numerical computations and the wind tunnel test results. Conversely, the results from the downwind full-scale pressure measurements showed less similarity due to a slightly tightened trim being used for the spinnaker in the on-water tests. Full-scale tests allow the action of unsteadiness due to the wind, wave and yacht movements to affect the results. This unstable environment caused the asymmetric spinnaker to move around, and a tightened trim was required to prevent the spinnaker from collapsing.     

Can starvation influence cellular and biochemical parameters in the crab Carcinus aestuarii?

Crustacea experience periods of starvation during moulting or when limited food availability occurs. The effects of starvation on Crustacea physiological responses have been demonstrated, whereas the effects of starvation on Crustacea immune parameters remain to be more fully studied. In the present study the effects of starvation on immune parameters and antioxidant enzyme activities of the crab Carcinus aestuarii were evaluated for the first time. Treated crabs were starved for 7 days, whereas control crabs were fed daily with mussels. Total haemocyte count (THC), haemocyte diameter and volume, haemocyte proliferation, cell-free haemolymph (CFH) glucose and total protein levels, and phenoloxidase (PO) activity in both haemocyte lysate (HL) and CFH were measured in crabs. In addition, superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activities were evaluated in both gills and digestive gland from crabs, in order to evaluate whether starvation induced oxidative stress in C. aestuarii. THC increased significantly in starved crabs, with respect to controls, whereas no significant variations were observed in haemocyte diameter, volume and proliferation. In CFH of starved animals glucose concentration significantly increased, whereas total protein concentration significantly reduced. A significantly higher PO activity was recorded in HL from starved crabs, than in control crabs. Conversely, PO activity did not vary significantly in CFH. Starvation did not cause significant alterations in antioxidant enzyme activities in both gills and digestive gland. Results obtained demonstrated that starvation influenced crab immune parameters, but did not induce oxidative stress. Results also indicated that C. aestuarii can modulate its cellular and biochemical parameters in order to cope with starvation.     

Climate changes and human activities recorded in the sediments of Lake Estanya (NE Spain) during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age

A multi-proxy study of short sediment cores recovered in small, karstic Lake Estanya (42°02?? N, 0°32?? E, 670 m.a.s.l.) in the Pre-Pyrenean Ranges (NE Spain) provides a detailed record of the complex environmental, hydrological and anthropogenic interactions occurring in the area since medieval times. The integration of sedimentary facies, elemental and isotopic geochemistry, and biological proxies (diatoms, chironomids and pollen), together with a robust chronological control, provided by AMS radiocarbon dating and ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radiometric techniques, enabled precise reconstruction of the main phases of environmental change, associated with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the industrial era. Shallow lake levels and saline conditions with poor development of littoral environments prevailed during medieval times (1150?C1300 AD). Generally higher water levels and more dilute waters occurred during the LIA (1300?C1850 AD), although this period shows a complex internal paleohydrological structure and is contemporaneous with a gradual increase of farming activity. Maximum lake levels and flooding of the current littoral shelf occurred during the nineteenth century, coinciding with the maximum expansion of agriculture in the area and prior to the last cold phase of the LIA. Finally, declining lake levels during the twentieth century, coinciding with a decrease in human pressure, are associated with warmer climate conditions. A strong link with solar irradiance is suggested by the coherence between periods of more positive water balance and phases of reduced solar activity. Changes in winter precipitation and dominance of NAO negative phases would be responsible for wet LIA conditions in western Mediterranean regions. The main environmental stages recorded in Lake Estanya are consistent with Western Mediterranean continental records, and show similarities with both Central and NE Iberian reconstructions, reflecting a strong climatic control of the hydrological and anthropogenic changes during the last 800 years.     

Archaeoseismological Analysis of a Late Bronze Age Site on the Alhama de Murcia Fault,SE Spain

An archaeoseismological study of Tira del Lienzo (Totana, Spain) was undertaken. The site belongs to the Argar archaeological group (2200–1550 cal. B.C.; Bronze Age). It is located on the trace of the reverse left‐lateral Alhama de Murcia fault (AMF) that was responsible for the 5.1 Mw 2011 Lorca earthquake. The constructive typology of the site consists of mortar‐free irregular natural boulders (dry‐set masonry) and differs from earlier archaeoseismological sites built on regular masonry constructions in the Betic Cordillera. Four Earthquake Archaeological Effects (EAEs) were identified as follows: (1) an apparent surface rupture (c. 18 cm left‐lateral offset), (2) the differential coseismic uplift of several centimeters affecting the main building of the settlement, (3) the widespread development of fractures on the ground surface (ground cracks) in a NE‐SW direction consistent with the kinematics of the AMF, and (4) fractures in boulders that constitute the remains of the dry stone walls at the site. Structural analysis of the two fracture types reveals two nearly orthogonal sets (NE‐SW and NW‐SE), matching the strike‐slip kinematics of the AMF in the zone. Archaeoseismic evidence and related radiocarbon dates of the different building phases of the Bronze Age site indicate the probable occurrence of at least one strong seismic event (6.3–6.5 Mw; IX ESI‐07) around 1550 cal. B.C., or soon after, triggering the destruction and probably the eventual abandonment of the site. We have identified an ancient lost earthquake from the Bronze Age and report the first archaeoseismological evidence of surface rupture in the Iberian Peninsula. This study also provides the first numerical data in the Totana‐Alhama segment of the AMF based on the recorded archaeoseismic displacements. These data allowed us to characterize the related slip rates (0.05 mm/yr) to define the seismic potential of the analyzed fault segment of the AMF, which was poorly defined by previous seismic and geological data.