Do 2006/7/EC European Union Bathing Water Standards exclude the risk of contact with Salmonella or Candida albicans?

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the recent (2006) European Union Directive concerning the management of bathing water quality to exclude the presence of pathogens from complying waters. Coastal water samples were classified according to the Directive. 2.5% of ‘excellent’ water contained Salmonella and 39.2% Candida albicans 11.8% of samples in category ‘good’ were Salmonella positive and 35.2% were C.albicans positive. When the USEPA criterion for marine waters was applied to the same dataset, fewer samples complied, however 6.0% of the complying samples contained Salmonella. The results suggest that the bacterial indicator threshold levels for marine recreational water quality of the 2006/7/EC European Union Directive do not fully exclude contact of bathers with dangerous pathogens. Enterococci, if used as the sole index, appear to form a more reliable proxy of the risk of contact with Salmonella.     

Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Water and nutrient fluxes off Northwest Africa

A historical data set is used to describe the coastal transition zone off Northwest Africa during spring 1973 and fall 1975, from 17° to 26°N, with special emphasis on the interaction between subtropical (North Atlantic Central Waters) and tropical (South Atlantic Central Waters) gyres. The near-surface geostrophic circulation, relative to 300 m, is quite complex. Major features are a large cyclonic pattern north of Cape Blanc (21°N) and offshore flow at the Cape Verde front. The large cyclone occurs in the region of most intense winds, and resembles a large meander of the baroclinic southward upwelling jet. The Cape Verde frontal system displays substantial interleaving that may partly originate as mesoscale features at the coastal upwelling front. Property–property diagrams show that the front is an effective barrier to all properties except temperature. The analysis of the Turner angle suggests that the frontal system is characterized by large heat horizontal diffusion as a result of intense double diffusion, which results in the smoothing of the temperature horizontal gradients. Nine cross-shore sections are used to calculate along-shore geostrophic water-mass and nutrient transports and to infer exchanges between the coastal transition zone and the deep ocean (import: deep ocean to transition zone; export: transition zone to deep ocean). These exchanges compare well with mean wind-induced transports and actual geostrophic cross-shore transport estimates. The region is divided into three areas: southern (18–21°N), central (21–23.5°N), and northern (23.5–26°N). In the northern area geostrophic import is roughly compensated with wind-induced export during both seasons. In the central area geostrophic import is greater than wind-induced export during spring, resulting in net import of both water (0.8 Sv) and nitrate (14 kmol s⁻¹), but during fall both factors again roughly cancel. In the southern area geostrophy and wind join to export water and nutrients during both seasons, they increase from 0.6 Sv and 3 kmol s⁻¹ during fall to 2.9 Sv and 53 kmol s⁻¹ during spring.     

Streamflow scaling properties: investigating characteristic scales from different statistical approaches

This paper studies the links between scaling properties of river flow time series by comparing the results of three techniques applied to an extended data set of 34 French discharge gauging stations. The three approaches used are based on different mathematical tools and hypotheses: (1) shape analysis of flood hydrographs; (2) a multifractal framework through spectral and moment analyses, and (3) flood frequency analysis through the fitting of flood duration frequency curves (QdF). The general aim is to test the hypothesis of scaling invariance of river flow and the shape invariance of the hydrographs, in order to investigate the link between scaling properties and flow dynamics. In particular, the coherence between different approaches widely used in the literature to describe these characteristics is evaluated through the estimation of parameters defining the range of time‐scales on which the scaling properties are valid. The results show that most of these timescale parameters are linked to the flow dynamics and suggest that the approaches applied are interrelated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake

A M_w 7.9 earthquake event occurred on 15 August 2007 off the coast of central Peru, 60 km west of the city of Pisco. This event is associated with subduction processes at the interface of the Nazca and South American plates, and was characterised by a complex source mechanism involving rupture on two main asperities, with unilateral rupture propagation to the southeast. The rupture process is clearly reflected in the ground motions recorded during this event, which include two separate episodes of strong shaking. The event triggered 18 accelerographic stations; the recordings are examined in terms of their characteristics and compared to the predictions of ground-motion prediction equations for subduction environments, using the maximum-likelihood-based method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). Additionally, macroseismic observations and damage patterns are examined and discussed in the light of local construction practices, drawing on field observations gathered during the post-earthquake reconnaissance missions.