Accounting for uncertainties and time preference in economic analysis of tackling climate change through forestry and selected policy implications for Scotland and Ukraine

The paper discusses the development of economic techniques for dealing with uncertainties in economic analysis of planting trees to mitigate climatic change. In consideration of uncertainty, time preference and intergenerational equity, the traditional cost-benefit analysis framework is challenged with regard to the discounting/non-discounting of carbon uptake benefits, and because it usually uses a constant and positive discount rate. We investigate the influence of various discounting protocols on the outputs of economic analysis. The idea of using the declining discount rate is also considered. Several numerical examples dealing with the analysis of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Scotland and Ukraine are provided. We show that the choice of discounting protocols have a considerable influence on the results of economic analysis, and therefore, on the decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation strategies. The paper concludes with some innovative insights on accounting for uncertainties and time preference in tackling climate change through forestry, several climate policy implications of dealing with uncertainties, and a brief discussion of what the use of different discounting protocols might imply for decision making.     

Soluble organic compounds in fog and cloud droplets: what have we learned over the past few years?

We have recently set up a new procedure for characterising the water soluble organic compounds (WSOC) in fog water, for which information is still rather limited. Fog samples collected during the 1998–1999 fall–winter season in the Po Valley (Italy) were analysed following this procedure, which allows a quantitative determination of three main classes of organic compounds (neutral species, mono- and di-carboxylic acids, polycarboxylic acids), together accounting for ca. 85% of the total WSOC. This procedure also provides information on the main chemical characteristics of these three classes of compounds (functional groups, aliphatic vs. aromatic character, etc.). The enhanced chemical knowledge on fog/cloud chemical composition opens new scenarios as far as chemical and microphysical processes in clouds and fogs are concerned.     

Uncertainties in probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes for fault sources in the Central Apennines,Italy

Using the characteristic earthquake model, we calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes M _w > 5.5 for individual fault sources in the Central Apennines for the 30-year period (2007–2037). We show the effect of time-dependent and time-independent occurrence (Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson) models together with uncertain slip rates and uncertain maximum magnitudes and, hence, uncertain recurrence times. In order to reduce the large prior geological slip rate uncertainty distribution for most faults, we obtain a posterior slip rate uncertainty distribution using a likelihood function obtained from regional historical seismicity. We assess the uncertainty of maximum magnitude by assuming that the uncertainty in fault width and length are described by a normal distribution with standard deviation equal to ±20% of the mean values. We then estimate the uncertainties of the 30-year probability of occurrence of a characteristic event using a Monte Carlo procedure. Uncertainty on each parameter is represented by the 16th and the 84th percentiles of simulated values. These percentiles bound the range that has a 68% probability of including the real value of the parameter. We do these both for the Poisson case and for the BPT case by varying the aperiodicity parameter (α value) using the values 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. The Bayesian posterior slip rate uncertainties typically differ by a factor of about 2 from the 16th to the 84th percentile. Occurrence probabilities for the next 30 years at the 84th percentile typically range from 1% to 2% for faults where the Poisson model dominates and from 2% to 21% where one of the BPT models dominates. The uncertainty in occurrence probability under the time-dependent hypothesis is very large, when measured by the ratio of the 84th to the 16th percentile, frequently being as much as two orders of magnitude. On the other hand, when measured by standard deviation, these standard deviations range from 2% to 6% for those faults whose elapsed time since previous event is large, but always 2% or less for faults with relatively recent previous occurrence, because the probability of occurrence is always small.     

Cryogenic Core Collection (C3) from Unconsolidated Subsurface Media

We evaluated tools and methods for in situ freezing of cores in unconsolidated subsurface media. Our approach, referred to as cryogenic core collection (C₃), has key aspects that include downhole circulation of liquid nitrogen (LN) via a cooling system, strategic use of thermal insulation to focus cooling into the core, and controlling LN back pressure to optimize cooling. Two cooling systems (copper coil and dual‐wall cylinder) are described. For both systems, the time to freeze a single 2.5‐foot (76‐cm) long by 2.5‐inch (63‐mm) diameter core is 5 to 7 min. Frozen core collection rates of about 30 feet/day (10 m/day) were achieved at two field sites, one impacted by petroleum‐based light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) and the other by chlorinated solvents. Merits of C₃ include (1) improved core recovery, (2) potential control of flowing sand, and (3) improved preservation of critical sediment attributes. Development of the C₃ method creates novel opportunities to characterize sediment with respect to physical, chemical, and biological properties. For example, we were able to resolve water, LNAPL, and gas saturations above and below the water table. By eliminating drainage of water, gas and LNAPL saturations in the range of 6 to 23% and 1 to 3% of pore space, respectively, were measured in LNAPL‐impacted intervals below the water table.     

Estuarine ecological risk based on hepatic histopathological indices from laboratory and in situ tested fish

Juvenile Senegalese soles were exposed through 28-day laboratory and field (in situ) bioassays to sediments from three sites of the Sado estuary (W Portugal): a reference and two contaminated by metallic and organic contaminants. Fish were surveyed for ten hepatic histopathological alterations divided by four distinct reaction patterns and integrated through the estimation of individual histopathological condition indices. Fish exposed to contaminated sediments sustained more damage, with especial respect to regressive changes like necrosis. However, differences were observed between laboratory- and field-exposed animals, with the latest, for instance, exhibiting more pronounced fatty degeneration and hepatocellular eosinophilic alteration. Also, some lesions in fish exposed to the reference sediment indicate that in both assays unaccounted variables produced experimental background noise, such as hyaline degeneration in laboratory-exposed fish. Still, the field assays yielded results that were found to better reflect the overall levels of contaminants and physico-chemical characteristics of the tested sediments.