Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.     

Land-surface segmentation as a method to create strata for spatial sampling and its potential for digital soil mapping

Sampling efforts are constrained by limited availability of resources. Therefore, methods to reduce the number of samples, while still achieving reasonable accuracy are needed. Land-surface segmentation (LSS) has proven a powerful technique to partition digital elevation models (DEMs) and their derivatives into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be further employed as support in soil sampling. Though topography is one of the main soil forming factors, a robust assessment of the potential of this technique to digital soil mapping (DSM) is still missing. In this study, we aimed at evaluating the potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape into relatively homogeneous areas, which can be used as strata for guiding the selection of sampling points in DSM. The experiments were carried out in two study areas where soil samples were available. Land-surface derivatives were derived from DEMs and segmented with a tool based on the multiresolution segmentation algorithm, into objects considered as homogeneous soil-landscape divisions. Thus, one sample was randomly selected within each segment from the existing sample data, based on which predictions of soil classes/sub-orders and properties, i.e. soil texture and A-horizon thickness, were made. Results were compared with predictions based on simple random sampling (SRS) and conditioned Latin hypercube (cLHS). The segmentation-based sampling (SBS) scheme performed better than SRS and cLHS schemes in predicting the A-horizon thickness, soil texture fractions and soil classes, showing a high potential of LSS in stratifying a landscape for the purposes of DSM. The novelty of this study is in the way strata are constructed, rather than in the sampling design itself. Further research is needed to demonstrate the value of a SBS design for practical use. The analyses presented here further highlight the importance of considering locally adaptive techniques in optimization of sampling schemes and predictions of soil properties.     

Impact of copper smelting on lakes in the southern Ural Mountains,Russia, inferred from chironomids

Karabash (52°2 N, 60°10 E) is a copper smelting town in the southern Ural Mountains of Russia. The town is affected by sulphur dioxide emissions and deposition of metal-rich particulates from the smelter, acid drainage from old mine workings, and leachates from disused waste dumps and tailings dams. The close proximity of houses to these sources of pollution is of concern to human health and has devastated terrestrial vegetation in the environs. The environmental impact of the smelter on lakes in the area has been assessed using chironomids. Short sediment cores were taken from 16 lakes within a 50 km radius of the smelter and the composition of the chironomid fauna from the bottom of each core, representing conditions prior to the commissioning of the smelter in 1910, was compared with the present chironomid fauna in the surface sediments. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that changes in the chironomid fauna of most lakes were driven by trophic change, independent of the industrial activity. Lakes and ponds adjacent to the smelter and waste dumps, which directly receive contaminated waters were devoid of macro- and mesofauna and flora, but there is no evidence that other lakes have been severely impacted by smelter emissions. Local geology ensures that the lakes are well-buffered to the effects of acid deposition which will limit the bioavailability of metals in the water column and sediment.     

Youth Mobility and Territorial Disparities: An Analysis of Urban and Rural Barcelona

Travel behavior of the present generation of youths is being increasingly explored due to their relevance in shaping future accessibility needs and mobility habits. The present study offers an original perspective on this topic by identifying territorial disparities that emerge in youth mobility patterns in rural and urban areas. Unlike most previous research, we propose taking a global view on mobility by analyzing all trip purposes and transportation modes. This is conducted by analyzing a comprehensive mobility survey in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, which provides data on mobility engagement, trip purposes, modal split, travel times and territorial differences. In general, youngsters account for larger daily travel times than older adults, present a higher attachment to public transportation and walk less on a daily basis. These differences are enhanced in rural territories, where while older adults overcome accessibility issues with higher use of the private vehicle, youngsters are more likely to invest larger travel times on transit.     

Use of Fuzzy Membership Input Layers to Combine Subjective Geological Knowledge and Empirical Data in a Neural Network Method for Mineral-Potential Mapping

Use of GIS layers, in which the cell values represent fuzzy membership variables, is an effective method of combining subjective geological knowledge with empirical data in a neural network approach to mineral-prospectivity mapping. In this study, multilayer perceptron (MLP), neural networks are used to combine up to 17 regional exploration variables to predict the potential for orogenic gold deposits in the form of prospectivity maps in the Archean Kalgoorlie Terrane of Western Australia. Two types of fuzzy membership layers are used. In the first type of layer, the statistical relationships between known gold deposits and variables in the GIS thematic layer are used to determine fuzzy membership values. For example, GIS layers depicting solid geology and rock-type combinations of categorical data at the nearest lithological boundary for each cell are converted to fuzzy membership layers representing favorable lithologies and favorable lithological boundaries, respectively. This type of fuzzy-membership input is a useful alternative to the 1-of-N coding used for categorical inputs, particularly if there are a large number of classes. Rheological contrast at lithological boundaries is modeled using a second type of fuzzy membership layer, in which the assignment of fuzzy membership value, although based on geological field data, is subjective. The methods used here could be applied to a large range of subjective data (e.g., favorability of tectonic environment, host stratigraphy, or reactivation along major faults) currently used in regional exploration programs, but which normally would not be included as inputs in an empirical neural network approach.     

Hydrogeochemistry of two river main floodplain lakes,Hessia, FR Germany

Two lakes, Lake Gänseweiher (LGW) and Lake Fechenheimer Weiher (LFW) occupy groundwater filled abandoned gravel pits which serve as fishing grounds and are part of recreational areas, respectively.Both lakes are cut into a near-surface groundwater aquifer, which is located in the pleistocene River Main gravel terrace t₆. They are sealed at the base by miocene clays and above by overlying flood deposits of the River Main. The latter provide protection from pollutants derived from wet and dry deposition of atmospheric contaminants.Groundwater chemistry determines the pool of dissolved constituents in lake water. The temporal and spatial distribution patterns of chemical compounds in lake water are brought about by endo-biogenic processes, of which the indicators are nitrate-nitrogen and dissolved silica. The latter illustrates an instantaneous response to pulses of diatom blooms.Both lakes are eutrophic (polytrophic) according to the classification guidelines presented in literature.     

Compositional variations and reflectance of the common platinum-group minerals

Summary A detailed study of the compositional variations of 22 different platinum-group minerals, of Os-Ir-Ru- and Pt-Fe alloys, Pt-Pd- and Ru-Os-Ir sulfides, RhIr-Pt sulfarsenides and Pd-Pt tellurides from various deposits resulted in verification of extensive solid solution series and element substitution within different mineral groups. On the basis of representative new microprobe analyses and related spectral reflectance curves of the platinum-group minerals investigated significant correlations between chemical composition and reflectance are discussed.

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Chemische Variation und Reflexion der wichtigsten Minerale der Platingruppe

Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung der chemischen Variation bei 22 Platinmineralen aus der Gruppe der Os-Ir-Ru- und Pt-Fe-Legierungen, Pt-Pd- und Ru-Os-Ir-Sulfide, Rh-Ir-Pt-Sulfarsenide und Pd-Pt-Telluride ergibt signifikante Mischkristallbildung und Element-Substitutionen innerhalb der unterschiedlichen Mineralgruppen. Anhand neuer Mikrosondenanalysen und der zugehörigen spektralen Reflexionskurven der betreffenden Platinminerale werden die Korrelationen zwischen Chemismus und Reflexion diskutiert.

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With 17 Figures

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Contribution to the Ore Mineralogy Symposium (IMA/COM) at the 14th General Meeting of the International Mineralogical Association, at Stanford, California, in July, 1986.     

Die tektonische Evolution der Erde von Pangäa zur Gegenwart ein plattentektonisches Modell

Zusammenfassung Das hier vorgestellte Modell basiert auf der Annahme, daß sich unter großen Landmassen, wie Pangäa zum Beispiel, in tektonischen Ruheperioden Wärme aus dem Erdinneren anstaut. Infolgedessen entwickelte sich vom Perm bis zur Kreide ein weites Konvektionstumorsystem; Pangäa zersplitterte und die kontinentalen Platten bewegten sich vom afrikanischen Zentrum weg. Die ozeanischen Rücken des Atlantiks und Indiks folgten den abwandernden Platten wie sich »öffnende Ringe«. Panthalassa, der Eo-Pazifik, wurde von allen Seiten überdriftet. Es muß einen Gegenstrom vom Pazifik im Mantel geben, welcher für die Auffüllung der zwischen den Pangäabruchstücken entstehenden ozeanischen Räume mit Mantelmaterial sorgt. Auch die ozeanischen Platten des Pazifiks bewegen sich vom zentralen »Darwin-Rise« weg. Der ostpazifische Rükken folgte der Bewegung und bildet heute einen ausgedehnten ostwärts gekrümmten Bogen. In den ozeanischen »Außenbögen« bildeten sich infolge der Dehnung Querrifts. Die Transformstörungen sind in beiden Systemen radial angeordnet. Die Terrains an Nordamerikas Westküste können nur östlich eines ostpazifischen Rückens aus ihrer ursprünglichen Position im zentralen Pazifik herausgewandert sein, also synchron mit dem sich öffnenden Pazifik. Die Kontinente bewegen sich möglicherweise solange von ihrer ursprünglichen Position weg, bis erneut eine große Landmasse zusammengedriftet ist. Unterhalb einer solchen »Neogäa« könnte sich wieder ein Konvektionstumor infolge von Wärmestau entfalten. Das findet vielleicht in Intervallen von einigen hundert Millionen Jahren statt und könnte die WILSON-Zyklen der Erdgeschichte erklären.

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The tectonic evolution of the earth from Pangea to the present a plate tectonic model

The model proposed here is based on the assumption that beneath giant landmasses (e.g. Pangea) heat from the inner earth is stored up and accumulated during periods of tectonic inactivity. Consequently below Pangea a huge convection bulge system developed from the Permian to the Cretaceous; Pangea split up and the continental plates moved away from the African centre. The oceanic ridges of the Atlantic and the Indic also followed the movement of the withdrawing continents like »opening rings«. The oceanic ridges always maintained their position in the middle of the spreading oceans above unidirectional flows in the upper mantle. Panthalassa which surrounded Pangea, was over-drifted from all sides. Since the »expansion« of Pangea is continuing even today, there must be a counter current of mantle material from the Pacific area, compensating the gaps between the fragments of Pangea. Consequently at the subduction zones a suction should exist, which pulls the Pacific plates under the advancing plates of the former Pangean continent. In the centre of Panthalassa another bulge from the upper mantle developed simultaneously with the bulge under Pangea. The Pacific oceanic plates moved away outwards from this central »Darwin rise«. The Eastpacific ridge also followed this movement eastwards and forms today a wide, ringlike arc. In the outer arcs of the Pangean and Pacific spreading ocean systems transverse ridges developed as a result of the extension of the older oceanic crust. The transform faults are radial structures in both »expanding« systems. The hotspot spurs of the Hawaii and Polynesian islands can be explained as the result of material derived from an independent slowly ESE moving deeper part of the mantle. The terrains on North Americas West cost moved away from their original position in the central Pacific ocean synchronously with the opening ocean on the east side of the advancing East Pacific ridge.The energy which drives the whole system is residual plus radioactive heat. Kinetic movements compensate the heat surplus of the earth. The continental plates of the Pangean system are moving away from their original position until a new giant landmass is formed by collision. Below such a stationary »Neogea« a heat bulge can develop again. This may take place perhaps in intervals of hundred of million years, explaining the WILSON-cycles in earth history.

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Résumé Le modèle présenté ici est basé sur l'hypothèse qu'endessous des grandes masses continentales — comme la Pangée p.ex. - il s'accumule, pendant les périodes de calme tectonique, de la chaleur d'origine interne. En conséquence, depuis le Permien jusqu'au Crétacé, un vaste système de convection s'est développé; la Pangée s'est morcelée et les plaques continentales se sont éloignées du centre africain. Les dorsales océaniques circum-africaines ont suivi le mouvement de ces plaques à la manière d'»anneaux concentriques«. La Panthalassa, précurseur du Pacifique, a été chevauchée de tous les côtés. Il doit s'être établi, dans le manteau, à partir du Pacifique, un contre-courant qui compense l'ouverture des océans en formation entre les fragments de la Pangée. Le Pacifique a donné lieu, lui aussi, à une expansion centrifuge; la dorsale est-pacifique a suivi le mouvement et forme aujourd'hui un arc bombé vers l'est. Dans les arcs océaniques extérieurs, l'expansion a provoqué la formation de dorsales transverses. Les failles transformantes montrent, dans les deux systèmes, des dispositions radiales. Les terrains de la côte W de l'Amérique du N ne peuvent provenir que d'une région située à l'Est de la dorsale est-pacifique dans sa position d'origine. Les continents s'éloigment et forme aujourd'hui un arc bombé vers l'est. Dans les arcs océaniques extérieurs, l'expansion a provoqué la forSous une telle »Néogée«, une nouvelle cellule de convection pourrait ensuite se développer. Ces phénomènes pourraient se dérouler dans un intervalle de quelques centaines de millions d'années, expliquant ainsi les cycles de Wilson dans l'histoire de la Terre.

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