Robustness of variograms and conditioning of kriging matrices

Current ideas of robustness in geostatistics concentrate upon estimation of the experimental variogram. However, predictive algorithms can be very sensitive to small perturbations in data or in the variogram model as well. To quantify this notion of robustness, nearness of variogram models is defined. Closeness of two variogram models is reflected in the sensitivity of their corresponding kriging estimators. The condition number of kriging matrices is shown to play a central role. Various examples are given. The ideas are used to analyze more complex universal kriging systems.Research performed while on leave at Centre de Geóstatistique et de Morphologie Mathématique, Fontainebleau.     

Nitrogen and carbon isotopic composition of bone collagen from marine and terrestrial animals

The stable nitrogen and carbon isotope ratios of bone collagen prepared from more than 100 animals representing 66 species of birds, fish, and mammals are presented. The δ¹⁵N values of bone collagen from animals that fed exclusively in the marine environment are, on average, 9%. more positive than those from animals that fed exclusively in the terrestrial environment; ranges for the two groups overlap by less than 1%. Bone collagen δ¹⁵N values also serve to separate marine fish from the small number of freshwater fish we analyzed. The bone collagen δ¹⁵N values of birds and fish that spent part of their life cycles feeding in the marine environment and part in the freshwater environment are intermediate between those of animals that fed exclusively in one or the other system. Further, animals that fed at successive trophic levels in the marine and terrestrial environment are separated, on average, by a 3%. difference in the δ¹⁵N values of their bone collagen. Specifically, carnivorous and herbivorous terrestrial animals have mean δ¹⁵N values for bone collagen of + 8.0 and + 5.3%., respectively. Among marine animals, those that fed on fish have a mean δ¹⁵N value for bone collagen of + 16.5%., whereas those that fed on invertebrates have a mean δ¹⁵N value of + 13.3%. These results support previous suggestions of a 3%. enrichment in δ¹⁵N values at each successively higher trophic level. In contrast to the results for δ¹⁵N values, the ranges of bone collagen δ¹³C values from marine and terrestrial feeders overlap to a great extent. Additionally, bone collagen δ¹³C values do not reflect the trophic levels at which the animals fed. These results indicate that bone collagen δ¹⁵N values will be useful in determining relative dependence on marine and terrestrial food sources and in investigating trophic level relationships among different animal species within an ecosystem. This approach should be applicable to animals represented by prehistoric or fossilized bone in which collagen is preserved.     

Growth of large sulfide structures on the endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge

Mapping and sampling with DSRV “Alvin” has established that sulfide blocks 0.5 m across, dredged from the axial valley of the Endeavour Segment at 47°57′N, are samples of unusually large sulfide structures. The steep-sided structures, up to 30 m in length, 20 m in height, and 10–15 m across, are localized by venting along normal faults at the base of the western axial valley wall, and are distributed for about 200 m along strike paralleling the 020 trend of the ridge crest. High-temperature fluids (350 to more than 400°C) pass through the massive sulfide structures and enter seawater through small, concentric “nozzle-like” features projecting from the top or the sides of the larger vent structures. Diffuse, low-temperature flow is pervasive in the vicinity of the active sulfide structures, exiting from basalt and sulfide surfaces alike. Evidence of recent volcanic activity is sparse.The two largest samples taken with the dredge would not have been recoverable using the submersible. These samples represent massive, complex portions of the sulfide structures which were not closely associated with rapid high-temperature fluid flow at the time of sampling; they contain textural evidence of sealed hydrothermal fluid exit channels. Mineralogy is dominated by Fe sulfides nnd amorphous silica. Pyrite, marcasite, wurtzite, chalcopyrite, and iss are the most common sulfide phases. Pyrrhotite, galena, and sphalerite are present in trace amounts. Barite, amorphous silica, and chalcedony are the only non-sulfide phases; anhydrite is not observed in any of the dredge samples, although it is common in the chimney-like samples recovered by “Alvin”.Specific mineralogical-textural zones within the dredge samples are anaoogous to individual layers in East Pacific Rise at 21°N and southern Juan de Fuca Ridge samples, with two exceptions: a coarse-grained, highly porous Fe sulfide-rich interior containing sulfidized tubeworm casts, and a 2–5 cm thick zone near the outer margin of the samples dominated by late stage amorphous silica. The porous interior may have formed by dendritic crystal growth from a slowly circulating fluid within a large enclosed chamber. The amorphous silica deposited from a seawater/hydrothermal fluid mixture percolating slowly through the walls of the enclosed chamber; conductive cooling of the fluid as it traversed the walls allowed amorphous silica to precipitate. These silica-rich zones are the densest, most durable portions of the structures and may be responsible for the lasting stability of the large sulfide features.Observations in these samples are consistent with two distinct phases of development. Phase 1 is analogous to chimney growth and construction at 21°N and ends when flow channels become sealed to rapid flow of through-going fluid. The flow is evidently redirected within the structure. Phase 2 includes dissolution of anhydrite and precipitation of amorphous silica during conductive cooling of sluggishly circulating hydrothermal fluid or seawater/hydrothermal fluid mixtures. Evolution of vent structures through phase 2 allows lateral and vertical growth of unusually large structures.     

Uranium and thorium isotope concentrations in foraminiferal calcite

Uranium and thorium isotope activities were measured by isotope dilution alpha spectrometry in four late Pleistocene and Holocene foraminiferal calcite samples. Sample cleaning methods were utilized to separate calcite tests from contaminating clay and surface oxide coatings. The maximum concentration of lattice bound uranium is 0.023 ppm (10 × 10^?9 moles U/mole Ca), consistent with the lowest reported value, 0.025 ppm [1].²³⁰Th/²³⁴U activity ratios in samples cleaned as described above are much greater than one, indicating that the cleaning methods used do not effectively remove²³⁰Th from the surfaces of the calcite. The upper limit for lattice bound²³²Th is 0.039 ppm (17 × 10^?9 moles Th/mole Ca).     

Pro-Am astronomy

The long history of close collaboration between amateur and professional in astronomy continued with an RAS discussion meeting held in September. Margaret Penston reports on the lively and enthusiastic discussion.     

CO2 Snow on Mars and Early Earth: Experimental Constraints

Greenhouse warming due to carbon dioxide atmospheres may be responsible for maintaining the early Earth's surface temperature above freezing and may even have allowed for liquid water on early Mars. However, the high levels of CO₂ required for such warming should have also resulted in the formation of CO₂ clouds. These clouds, depending on their particle size, could lead to either warming or cooling. The particle size in turn is determined by the nucleation and growth conditions. Here we present laboratory studies of the nucleation and growth of carbon dioxide on water ice under martian atmospheric conditions. We find that a critical saturation, S=1.34, is required for nucleation, corresponding to a contact parameter between solid water and solid carbon dioxide of m=0.95. We also find that after nucleation occurs, growth of CO₂ is very rapid, and we report the growth rates at a number of supersaturations. Because growth would be expected to continue until the CO₂ pressure is lowered to its vapor pressure, we expect particles larger than those being currently suggested for the present and past martian atmospheres. Using this information in a microphysical model described in a companion paper, we find that CO₂ clouds are best described as “snow,” having a relatively small number of large particles.     

天坑形成的水力机制

大部分情况下,天坑都是现代暗河通道洞顶塌陷而成.塌陷的扩大造成暗河通道的阻塞和改道,使得水力梯度变陡,溶蚀和侵蚀增强.可以说,天坑大部分空间体积的形成都是地下河大规模搬运崩塌堆积物的结果.强烈变化的大流量是搬运崩塌堆积的最佳条件,而暗河通道的改道和扩大又进一步加强了塌陷作用.与区域裂隙模式不同,新的裂隙随着崩塌周围应力释放而扩张.与原始洞穴通道形成相比,大规模天坑的形成都是源于这些作用.     

Late quaternary glacial history of the South Orkney Plateau, Antarctica

Piston cores from the South Orkney Plateau penetrated overcompacted diamictons in water depths of up to 250 m. Detailed textural and petrological analyses of these diamictons indicate that they are basal tills. Seismic records from the plateau show a widespread surface of glacial erosion and provide additional evidence of an ice cap grounded to a depth of 250 m. Piston cores from the slope of the plateau penetrated diatomaceous muds resting directly on poorly sorted muds with very little to no biogenic material. The ice-rafted debris in these glacial-marine sediments is composed almost exclusively of material derived from the South Orkney Islands. This implies deposition beneath an ice shelf as opposed to iceberg rafting. In contrast, diatomaceous muds contain relatively abundant exotic iceberg-rafted material and reflect a glacial-maritime setting similar to that of today. The sharp contact separating diatomaceous surface sediments from basal tills and sub-ice shelf deposits indicates that the ice cap and ice shelf retreated from the plateau rapidly. Radiocarbon dates for diatomaceous muds from a glacial trough on the plateau indicate that the ice cap and ice shelf retreated from the plateau prior to 6000 to 7000 years ago. The homogeneity of surficial diatomaceous sediments suggests that sea ice conditions over the plateau have not changed radically since that time.     

Documenting hurricane impacts on coral reefs using two-dimensional video-mosaic technology

Four hurricanes impacted the reefs of Florida in 2005. In this study, we evaluate the combined impacts of hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma on a population of Acropora palmata using a newly developed video‐mosaic methodology that provides a high‐resolution, spatially accurate landscape view of the reef benthos. Storm damage to A. palmata was surprisingly limited; only 2 out of 19 colonies were removed from the study plot at Molasses Reef. The net tissue losses for those colonies that remained were only 10% and mean diameter of colonies decreased slightly from 88.4 to 79.6 cm. In contrast, the damage to the reef framework was more severe, and a large section (6 m in diameter) was dislodged, overturned, and transported to the bottom of the reef spur. The data presented here show that two‐dimensional video‐mosaic technology is well‐suited to assess the impacts of physical disturbance on coral reefs and can be used to complement existing survey methodologies.