Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.     

Concept design and hydrodynamic optimization of an innovative SWATH USV by CFD methods

The paper presents the main characteristics of an innovative platform which has been conceived and designed to extend the operational capabilities of current unmanned surface vehicles in terms of platform stability in waves and of powering requirement at a relatively high speed. The main idea which rules the project is the realization of a small autonomous surface unit (about 6 m in length) capable of undertaking several tasks in the marine environment even with moderate rough sea conditions. The designed vessel has the ability to locate, recover, and launch other members of the autonomous fleet (like AUVs or other underwater devices) and at the same time could carry out a surveillance service of the surrounding areas. To manage these tasks, the vehicle is designed to provide a fairly good autonomy which is needed to face intermediate-range missions (100 nautical miles). The choice of a small waterplane area twin hull (SWATH) form has been motivated by its excellent properties of seakeeping qualities, combined with a non-conventional low resistance underwater hull shape, currently under patenting process, which is able to reduce to a minimum the resistance of the vessel especially at higher speeds. To obtain the most efficient profile of the underwater bodies, a systematic optimization with an automatic procedure based on a parametric definition of the geometry, a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solver, and a differential evolution global minimization algorithm have been created and used. As expected, all the final CFD computations on the best design have demonstrated the superior efficiency of the developed unconventional SWATH technology with respect to different alternatives of current hull typologies.     

Complex dynamics of small-moderate volcanic events: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile

After decades of repose, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) erupted in June 2011 following a month of continuously increasing seismic activity. The eruption dispersed a large volume of rhyolitic tephra over a wide area and was characterized by complex dynamics. During the initial climactic phase of the eruption (24–30 h on 4–5 June), 11–14-km-high plumes dispersed most of the erupted tephra eastward towards Argentina, reaching as far as the Atlantic Ocean. This first eruptive phase was followed by activity of lower intensity, leading to the development of a complex stratigraphic sequence, mainly due to rapid shifts in wind direction and eruptive style. The resulting tephra deposits consist of 13 main layers grouped into four units. Each layer was characterized based on its dispersal direction, sedimentological features, and on the main characteristics of the juvenile fraction (texture, density, petrography, chemistry). The lowest part of the eruptive sequence (Unit I), corresponding to the tephra emitted between 4 and 5 June, is composed of alternating lapilli layers with a total estimated volume of ca. 0.75 km³; these layers record the highest intensity phase, during which a bent-over plume dispersed tephra towards the southeast-east, with negligible up-wind sedimentation. Products emitted during 5–6 June (Unit II) signaled an abrupt shift in wind direction towards the north, leading to the deposition of a coarse ash deposit in the northern sector (ca. 0.21 km³ in volume), followed by a resumption of easterly directed winds. A third phase (Unit III) began on 7 June and resulted in tephra deposits in the eastern sector and ballistic bombs around the vent area. A final phase (Unit IV) started after 15 June and was characterized by the emission of fine-grained white tephra from ash-charged plumes during low-level activity and the extrusion of a viscous lava flow. Timing and duration of the first eruptive phases were constrained based on comparison of the dispersal of the main tephra layers with satellite images, showing that most of the tephra was emitted during the first 72 h of the event. The analyzed juvenile material tightly clusters within the rhyolitic field, with negligible chemical variations through the eruptive sequence. Textural observations reveal that changes in eruption intensity (and consequently in magma ascent velocity within the conduit) and complex interactions between gas-rich and gas-depleted magma portions during ascent resulted in vesicular clasts with variable degrees of shear localization, and possibly in the large heterogeneity of the juvenile material.     

The use of cholinesterase as potential biomarker: In vitro characterization in the polychaete Capitella teleta

The ecological relevance of polychaetes coupled with their easy culture and maintenance in the laboratory, has led them to become increasingly used in marine ecotoxicological studies, raising the need to validate frequently applied monitoring tools at various biological levels. The present study was aimed to characterize the cholinesterases (ChE) activity in the polychaete Capitella teleta, using three substrates (acetylthiocholine iodide, propionylthiocholine iodide, and S-butyrylthiocholine iodide) and four known inhibitors (eserine hemisulfate, BW284c51, iso-OMPA and chlorpyrifos-oxon). Results showed that most of the measured cholinesterase activity was acetylcholinesterase (AChE). Inhibition of enzyme kinetic experiments denoted that sensitivity of C. teleta’s ChE to the organophosphorous metabolite chlorpyrifos-oxon (IC₅₀ = 60.72 nM) was analogous to some fish species. This study highlights the relevance of ChE characterization before its use as a biomarker in ecotoxicology and biomonitoring studies.     

Visual Event Screening of Continuous Seismic Data by Supersonograms

We present a new visualization method for human inspection of seismic data called supersonograms, which maximizes the amount of time and stations visible on screen while retaining the possibility to detect short and low-signal to noise ratio (SNR) signals. This visualization approach is integrated into a seismological software suite used in the seismic aftershock monitoring system (SAMS) of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) on-site inspections (OSI) to detect suspicious events eventually representing aftershocks from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). During an OSI, huge amounts of continuous waveform data accumulate from up to 50 six-channel mini-arrays covering an inspection area of 1,000 square kilometers. Sought-after events can have magnitude as low as $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-2.0}$ and duration of just a few seconds, which makes it particularly hard to discover them in large, noisy datasets. Therefore, the data visualization is based on nonlinearly scaled, noise-adapted spectrograms, i.e., sonograms, which help to distinguish weak signal energy from stationary background noise. Four single-trace sonograms per mini-array can be combined into supersonograms, since the array aperture is small and sonograms suppress differences of local site noise, allowing an analyst to check array-wide signal coherence quickly. In this paper, we present the supersonograms and the software on the basis of a dataset from a creeping, inhabited landslide in Austria where the same station layout is used as in an OSI. Detected signals are fracture processes in the sedimentary landslide, i.e., slidequakes, with $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-0.5} \,\hbox{\,to}\,{-2.5}$ between July 2009 and July 2011. These signals are comparable in magnitude and duration to expected weak UNE aftershocks.     

Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification,scale dependence and effect on flood response

Abstract

The concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km²-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km² to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889     

Structural damage in the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the earthquake on May 2012 in Emilia Romagna

This paper addresses the structural damage to the main buildings of the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the primary earthquake shocks on May 20th and 29th, 2012, in Emilia Romagna. The damage survey, performed via form-based methods, highlights the different seismic behaviour of several types of buildings, especially those having historical features, and the consequences of the damage in terms of costs. Moreover, an analysis of some failure mechanisms activated in Reggiolo enables the evaluation of the local peak ground acceleration, due to the soil amplification.     

Numerical study of tides in Ontario Lacus,a hydrocarbon lake on the surface of the Saturnian moon Titan

In the context of the emergence of extra-terrestrial oceanography, we adapted an existing oceanographic model, SLIM (www.climate.be/slim), to the conditions of Titan, a moon of Saturn. The tidal response of the largest southern lake at Titan’s surface, namely Ontario Lacus, is simulated. SLIM solves the 2D, depth-averaged shallow water equations on an unstructured mesh using the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, which allows for high spatial resolution wherever needed. The impact of the wind forcing, the bathymetry, and the bottom friction is also discussed. The predicted maximum tidal range is about 0.56 m in the southern part of the lake, which is more than twice as large as the previous estimates (see Tokano, Ocean Dyn 60:(4) 803–817 10.1007/s10236-010-0285-3 (Tokano 2010)). The patterns and magnitude of the current are also markedly different from those of previous studies: the tidal motion is not aligned with the major axis of the lake and the speed is larger nearshore. Indeed, the main tidal component rotates clockwise in an exact period of one Titan day and the tidal currents can reach 0.046 ms ^?1 close to the shores depending on the geometry and the bathymetry. Except for these specific nearshore regions, the current speed is less than 0.02 ms ^?1. Circular patterns can be observed offshore, their rotational direction and size varying along the day.     

Sensitivity of simulated flow fields and bathymetries in meandering channels to the choice of a morphodynamic model

Morphodynamic models are used by river practitioners and scientists to simulate geomorphic change in natural and artificial river channels. It has long been recognized that these models are sensitive to the choice of parameter values, and proper calibration is now common practice. This paper investigates the less recognized impact of the choice of the model itself. All morphodynamic models purport to simulate the same flow and sediment dynamics, often relying on the same governing equations. Yet in solving these equations, the models have different underlying assumptions, for example regarding spatial discretization, turbulence, sediment inflow, lateral friction, and bed load transport. These differences are not always considered by the average model user, who might expect similar predictions from calibrated models. Here, a series of numerical simulations in meandering channels was undertaken to test whether six morphodynamic codes (BASEMENT, CCHE‐2D, NAYS, SSIIM‐1, TELEMAC‐2D and TELEMAC‐3D) would yield significantly different equilibrium bathymetries if subjected to identical, initial flow conditions. We found that, despite producing moderately similar velocity patterns on a fixed‐flat bed (regression coefficient r of 0.77 ± 0.20), the codes disagree substantially with respect to simulated bathymetries (r = 0.49 ± 0.31). We relate these discrepancies to differences in the codes' assumptions. Results were configuration specific, i.e. codes that perform well for a given channel configuration do not necessarily perform well with higher or lower sinuosity configurations. Finally, limited correlation is found between accuracy and code complexity; the inclusion of algorithms that explicitly account for the effects of local bed slope and channel curvature effects on transport magnitude and direction does not guarantee accuracy. The range of solutions obtained from the evaluated codes emphasizes the need for carefully considering the choice of code. We recommend the creation of a central repository providing universal validation cases and documentation of recognized fluvial codes in commonly studied fluvial settings. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated approach for investigating geomorphic response to extreme events: methodological framework and application to the October 2011 flood in the Magra River catchment,Italy

A high‐magnitude flash flood, which took place on 25 October 2011 in the Magra River catchment (1717 km²), central‐northern Italy, is used to illustrate some aspects of the geomorphic response to the flood. An overall methodological framework is described for using interlinked observations and analyses of the geomorphic impacts of an extreme event. The following methods and analyses were carried out: (i) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the event; (ii) sediment delivery by event landslide mapping; (iii) identification and estimation of wood recruitment, deposition, and budgeting; (iv) interpretation of morphological processes by analysing fluvial deposits; (v) remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis of channel width changes. In response to the high‐magnitude hydrological event, a large number of landslides occurred, consisting of earth flows, soil slips, and translational slides, and a large quantity of wood was recruited, in most part deriving from floodplain erosion caused by bank retreat and channel widening. The most important impact of the flood event within the valley floor was an impressive widening of the overall channel bed and the reactivation of wide portions of the pre‐event floodplain. Along the investigated (unconfined or partly confined) streams (total investigated length of 93.5 km), the channel width after the flood was up to about 20 times the channel width before the event. The study has shown that a synergic use of different methods and types of evidence provides fundamental information for characterizing and understanding the geomorphic effects of intense flood events. The prediction of geomorphic response to a flood event is still challenging and many limitations exist; however a robust geomorphological analysis can contribute to the identification of the most critical reaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.