Geostatistical prediction of a local geometric geoid - kriging and cokriging with the use of EGM2008 geopotential model

We investigate prediction abilities of different variants of kriging and different combinations of data in a local geometric (GNSS/leveling based) geoid modeling. In order to generate local geoid models, we have used GNSS/leveling data and EGM2008 geopotential model. EGM2008 has been used twofold. Firstly, it was used as a basic long wave-length trend to be removed from geoid undulation data to generate a residual field of geoid heights modeled later by kriging (remove-restore technique). Secondly, EGM2008-based undulations were used as a secondary variable in a cokriging prediction procedure (as pseudo-observations). Besides the use of EGM2008, the kriging-based local geometric geoid models were generated only on the basis of raw undulations data. Kriging itself was used in two variants, i.e. ordinary kriging and universal kriging for univariate and bivariate cases (cokriging). The quality of kriging-based prediction for all its variants and all data combinations have been investigated on one fixed validation dataset consisting of 86 points and three training data sets characterized by a different density of sampling. Results of this study indicate that incorporation of EGM08 as a long wave-length trend in kriging prediction procedure outperforms cokriging strategy based on incorporation of EGM08 as a secondary spatially correlated variable.     

Changes in The Dynamics And Thermal Regime of The Permafrost and Active Layer of The High Arctic Coastal Area in North‐West Spitsbergen,Svalbard

In this paper changes in the active layer of the high arctic coastal area in north‐west Spitsbergen, Svalbard are described. Analysis includes both the ground thawing depth and its near‐surface thermal structure. The study was conducted on the Kaffiøyra Plain (Svalbard) at several fixed sites, which represent places typical of the region: a sandy beach, a tundra plain and a moraine ridge. The results show that in recent years, at two measurement points a significantly deeper thawing was observed. In 1996–2012 on the beach and on the moraine the trend of active layer thickness change was +1.3 cm yr^?1 and +2.5 cm yr^?1, respectively. Generally, in the years 2008–2012 the mean thickness of the active layer in the Kaffiøyra region increased by 3% to 6%. Even at the spatially close sites, within similar environments, there are significant differences in the thickness of the active layer. Measurements show that significant changes also occurred in the thawed ground temperature. Mean values of the observed near‐surface temperature in recent years (2007–2011) were higher by more than 1.0°C, in comparison to the mean in the late 1970s.     

Toward very high horizontal resolution NWP over the alps: Influence of increasing model resolution on the flow pattern

The increasing resolution of contemporary regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, reaching horizontal grid sizes of O(1 km), requires robust and reliable dynamical cores, working well beyond the approximation of quasi-horizontal flows. That stimulates an interest in an application for NWP purposes of dynamical cores based on the anelastic, or — more generally — sound-proof flow equations, and characterized by appropriate robustness and reliability. The paper presents results from testing the dynamical core of EULAG, the anelastic research model for multi-scale flows, as a prospective NWP dynamical core. The model simulates the semi-realistic frictionless and adiabatic flow over realistic steep Alpine topographies, employing horizontal grid sizes of 2.2, 1.1, and 0.55 km. The paper demonstrates not only the numerical robustness of EULAG, but also studies the influence of the varying horizontal resolution on the simulated flow. Results show that the increased horizontal resolution increases orographic drag on the flow. While the general flow pattern remains the same, increased resolution influences the flow on scales from hundreds of kilometers to meso-gamma scales. The differences are especially apparent in the near-surface layer of 1.5 to 3 km deep, and in the distribution and amplitudes of the orographically-induced gravity waves.     

Testing the anelastic nonhydrostatic model EULAG as a prospective dynamical core of a numerical weather prediction model Part I: Dry benchmarks

In this paper, a feasibility of anelastic approach for numerical weather prediction (NWP) is examined. The study concerns the anelastic nonhydrostatic model EULAG as a prospective candidate for the new dynamical core of a high-resolution NWP model. Such an application requires a series of benchmark tests to be performed. The study presents the results of dry idealized two-dimensional linear and non-linear tests. They include evolution of cold and warm density currents in neutrally stratified atmosphere, inertia-gravity waves in short and long channels, as well as mountain gravity waves for a set of different flow regimes. Detailed comparison of the results with the reference solutions, based mainly on the results of compressible models, indicates a high level of conformity for all of the experiments. It verifies the anelastic approach as strongly consistent with the compressible one for a broad class of atmospheric problems. It also corroborates the robustness of EULAG numerics, an essential requirement of dynamical core of NWP model.     

The significance of Chara vegetation in the precipitation of lacustrine calcium carbonate

A significant portion of calcium carbonate is deposited in lake sediments as a result of biological processes related to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton in the pelagic realm and, in addition, macrophytes in the littoral zone. Lake Wigry, one of the largest lakes in Poland (north‐east Poland), is characterized by: (i) carbonate sediments with a CaCO₃ content exceeding 80% within the littoral zone; and (ii) large areas of submerged vegetation dominated by charophytes (macroscopic green algae, Characeae family). It is claimed that charophytes are highly effective in utilizing HCO₃^? and forming thick CaCO₃ encrustations. Thus, this study was aimed at evaluating the CaCO₃ production by dense Chara stands overgrowing the lake bottom reaching a depth of 4 m. In late July 2009, the fresh and dry mass of plants, the percentage contribution of calcium carbonate and the production of CaCO₃ per 1 m² were investigated along three transects at three depths (1 m, 2 m and 3 m, with each sample area equal to 0·0625 m²) per transect. The composition and structure of phytoplankton and the physico‐chemical properties of the water analysed in both the littoral and pelagic zones served as the environmental background and demonstrated moderately low fertility in the lake. The greatest dry plant mass exceeded 1000 g m^?2 and CaCO₃ encrustations constituted from 59% to over 76% of the charophyte dry weight. Thus, the maximum and average values of carbonates precipitated by charophytes were 685·5 and 438 g m^?2, respectively, which exceeded previously reported results. A correlation of carbonate production with the depth of Chara stands was detected, and intermediate depths offered the most favourable conditions for carbonate precipitation (589 g m^?2 on average). As precipitated carbonates are ultimately stored in bottom deposits, the results highlight the significance of charophytes in lacustrine CaCO₃ sedimentation.     

Landslide databases in the Geological Surveys of Europe

Landslides are one of the most widespread geohazards in Europe, producing significant social and economic impacts. Rapid population growth in urban areas throughout many countries in Europe and extreme climatic scenarios can considerably increase landslide risk in the near future. Variability exists between European countries in both the statutory treatment of landslide risk and the use of official assessment guidelines. This suggests that a European Landslides Directive that provides a common legal framework for dealing with landslides is necessary. With this long-term goal in mind, this work analyzes the landslide databases from the Geological Surveys of Europe focusing on their interoperability and completeness. The same landslide classification could be used for the 849,543 landslide records from the Geological Surveys, from which 36% are slides, 10% are falls, 20% are flows, 11% are complex slides, and 24% either remain unclassified or correspond to another typology. Most of them are mapped with the same symbol at a scale of 1:25,000 or greater, providing the necessary information to elaborate European-scale susceptibility maps for each landslide type. A landslide density map was produced for the available records from the Geological Surveys (LANDEN map) showing, for the first time, 210,544 km² landslide-prone areas and 23,681 administrative areas where the Geological Surveys from Europe have recorded landslides. The comparison of this map with the European landslide susceptibility map (ELSUS 1000 v1) is successful for most of the territory (69.7%) showing certain variability between countries. This comparison also permitted the identification of 0.98 Mkm² (28.9%) of landslide-susceptible areas without records from the Geological Surveys, which have been used to evaluate the landslide database completeness. The estimated completeness of the landslide databases (LDBs) from the Geological Surveys is 17%, varying between 1 and 55%. This variability is due to the different landslide strategies adopted by each country. In some of them, landslide mapping is systematic; others only record damaging landslides, whereas in others, landslide maps are only available for certain regions or local areas. Moreover, in most of the countries, LDBs from the Geological Surveys co-exist with others owned by a variety of public institutions producing LDBs at variable scales and formats. Hence, a greater coordination effort should be made by all the institutions working in landslide mapping to increase data integration and harmonization.     

A multiyear analysis of aerosol optical thickness over Europe and Central Poland using NAAPS model simulation

This study contains a comparative analysis of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) between numerical calculations obtained from the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) model and direct observations from the AERONET robotic network and the Saharan Aerosol over WArsaw (SAWA) field campaign. AOT was calculated for 500 nm wavelength. The comparison shows underestimation of the total aerosol optical thickness simulated by NAAPS. The correlation coefficients between model and observation oscillates between 0.57 and 0.72. Results of seven-year (1998–2004) NAAPS simulation of aerosol components (sea salt, mineral dust, sulphate, and smoke) show large temporal and spatial variability of the aerosol optical thickness over Europe. The least polluted region is the Iberian Peninsula, while the highest aerosol burdens occurred in Central Europe, mostly due to anthropogenic sulphate particles. Finally, the analysis of mineral dust transport shows frequent episodes of Saharan dust inflow over Central Europe. There are about 20 days a year (4 days in May) when instantaneous AOT associated with mineral dust aerosol increases over 0.1.     

Fractionation of heavy metals in bottom sediments using Tessier procedure

The study presents the results of Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn and Fe determination in the samples of bottom sediments collected from the Oder and Warta rivers. The sequential extraction of metals in the samples of bottom sediments was performed after introducing the modification of the extraction scheme suggested by Tessier et al. (Anal Chem 51(7):844–851, 1979). The extraction times of particular stages were optimised. The fifth stage was altered by introducing the new methods of performing extraction. The samples of bottom sediments submitted the following granulometric analyses: dry, wet and wet with (HMP) dispersing reagent. Seven granulometric fractions with the following grain sizes were isolated: >2.0, 2.0–1.0, 1.0–0.5, 0.5–0.25, 0.25–0.1, 0.1–0.063 and <0.063 mm. The sequential extraction of particular granulometric fractions was performed. The concentration of metals variability was analysed depending on the method of sample preparation for the chemical analysis, granulometric fraction of sediments subjected to the analysis, extraction conditions and the site of samples collection. The lack of linearity between the metal concentration and the size of granulometric fraction was observed. The highest concentrations of metals were observed in fractions >2.0, 2.0–1.0 and 0.1–0.063 and <0.063 mm while the lowest concentrations occurred in fractions 1.0–0.5, 0.5–0.25, and 0.25–0.1 mm. The atomic absorption spectrometry with flame atomisation (F-AAS) was used for the determination of the investigated elements.     

Thermodynamic model of the activity of the comet 103P/Hartley

The paper presents three processes related to the dynamics of cometary particles.The following thermodynamic mechanisms were taken into account:quiet sublimatio...