A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

Canadian gravimetric geoid model 2010

A new gravimetric geoid model, Canadian Gravimetric Geoid 2010 (CGG2010), has been developed to upgrade the previous geoid model CGG2005. CGG2010 represents the separation between the reference ellipsoid of GRS80 and the Earth’s equipotential surface of $W_0=62{,}636{,}855.69~\mathrm{m}^2\mathrm{s}^{-2}$ W 0 = 62 , 636 , 855.69 m 2 s ? 2 . The Stokes–Helmert method has been re-formulated for the determination of CGG2010 by a new Stokes kernel modification. It reduces the effect of the systematic error in the Canadian terrestrial gravity data on the geoid to the level below 2 cm from about 20 cm using other existing modification techniques, and renders a smooth spectral combination of the satellite and terrestrial gravity data. The long wavelength components of CGG2010 include the GOCE contribution contained in a combined GRACE and GOCE geopotential model: GOCO01S, which ranges from $-20.1$ ? 20.1 to 16.7 cm with an RMS of 2.9 cm. Improvement has been also achieved through the refinement of geoid modelling procedure and the use of new data. (1) The downward continuation effect has been accounted accurately ranging from $-22.1$ ? 22.1 to 16.5 cm with an RMS of 0.9 cm. (2) The geoid residual from the Stokes integral is reduced to 4 cm in RMS by the use of an ultra-high degree spherical harmonic representation of global elevation model for deriving the reference Helmert field in conjunction with a derived global geopotential model. (3) The Canadian gravimetric geoid model is published for the first time with associated error estimates. In addition, CGG2010 includes the new marine gravity data, ArcGP gravity grids, and the new Canadian Digital Elevation Data (CDED) 1:50K. CGG2010 is compared to GPS-levelling data in Canada. The standard deviations are estimated to vary from 2 to 10 cm with the largest error in the mountainous areas of western Canada. We demonstrate its improvement over the previous models CGG2005 and EGM2008.     

Modelling river water temperature using deterministic,empirical, and hybrid formulations in a Mediterranean stream

River water temperature is a common target of water quality models at the watershed scale, owing to its principal role in shaping biogeochemical processes and in stream ecology. Usually, models include physically‐based, deterministic formulations to calculate water temperatures from detailed meteorological information, which usually comes from meteorological stations located far from the river reaches. However, alternative empirical approaches have been proposed, that usually depend on air temperature as master variable. This study explored the performance of a semidistributed water quality application modelling river water temperature in a Mediterranean watershed, using three different approaches. First, a deterministic approach was used accounting for the different heat exchange components usually considered in water temperature models. Second, an empirical approximation was applied using the equilibrium temperature concept, assuming a linear relationship with air temperature. And third, a hybrid approach was constructed, in which the temperature equilibrium concept and the deterministic approach were combined. Results showed that the hybrid approach gave the best results, followed by the empirical approximation. The deterministic formulation gave the worst results. The hybrid approach not only fitted daily river water temperatures, but also adequately modelled the daily temperature range (maximum–minimum daily temperature). Other river water features directly dependent on water temperature, such as river intrusion depth in lentic systems (i.e. the depth at which the river inflow plunges to equilibrate density differences with lake water), were also correctly modelled even at hourly time steps. However, results for the different heat fluxes between river and atmosphere were very unrealistic. Although direct evidence of discrepancies between meteorological drivers measured at the meteorological stations and the actual river microclimate was not found, the use of models including empirical or hybrid formulations depending mainly on air temperature is recommended if only meteorological data from locations far from the river reaches are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecological niches of Arctic deep-sea copepods: Vertical partitioning,dietary preferences and different trophic levels minimize inter-specific competition

The biodiversity of pelagic deep-sea ecosystems has received growing scientific interest in the last decade, especially in the framework of international marine biodiversity initiatives, such as Census of Marine Life (CoML). While a growing number of deep-sea zooplankton species has been identified and genetically characterized, little information is available on the mechanisms minimizing inter-specific competition and thus allowing closely related species to co-occur in the deep-sea pelagic realm. Focussing on the two dominant calanoid copepod families Euchaetidae and Aetideidae in Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean, the present study strives to characterize ecological niches of co-occurring species, with regard to vertical distribution, dietary composition as derived from lipid biomarkers, and trophic level on the basis of stable isotope signatures. Closely related species were usually restricted to different depth layers, resulting in a multi-layered vertical distribution pattern. Thus, vertical partitioning was an important mechanism to avoid inter-specific competition. Species occurring in the same depth strata usually belonged to different genera. They differed in fatty acid composition and trophic level, indicating different food preferences. Herbivorous Calanus represent major prey items for many omnivorous and carnivorous species throughout the water column. The seasonal and ontogenetic vertical migration of Calanus acts as a short-cut in food supply for pelagic deep-sea ecosystems in the Arctic.     

Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Similarity Scaling Over a Steep Alpine Slope

In this study, we investigate the validity of similarity scaling over a steep mountain slope (30–41 $^\circ $ ). The results are based on eddy-covariance data collected during the Slope Experiment near La Fouly (SELF-2010); a field campaign conducted in a narrow valley of the Swiss Alps during summer 2010. The turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum are found to vary significantly with height in the first few metres above the inclined surface. These variations exceed by an order of magnitude the well-accepted maximum 10 % required for the applicability of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory in the surface layer. This could be due to a surface layer that is too thin to be detected or to the presence of advective fluxes. It is shown that local scaling can be a useful tool in these cases when surface-layer theory breaks down. Under convective conditions and after removing the effects of self-correlation, the normalized standard deviations of slope-normal wind velocity, temperature and humidity scale relatively well with $z/\varLambda $ , where $z$ is the measurement height and $\varLambda (z)$ the local Obukhov length. However, the horizontal velocity fluctuations are not correlated with $z/\varLambda $ under all stability regimes. The non-dimensional gradients of wind velocity and temperature are also investigated. For those, the local scaling appears inappropriate, particularly at night when shallow drainage flows prevail and lead to negative wind-speed gradients close to the surface.     

Découverte d'un diatrème de kimberlite diamantifère à Séguéla en Côte-d'Ivoire

The Séguéla area in Ivory Coast is known for its diamond-bearing field related to dykes of kimberlite and lamproite. These dykes, devoid of any deformation and metamorphism, crosscut the Birimian formations. Their N 170° orientation is controlled by the tectonized contact between the Archean and the Paleoproterozoic shields of the West-African craton. Discovery of a diatreme, with its pipe breccias and well-preserved maar sediments, below the present-day colluvia, attests for the probable recent geological age (Cretaceous?) of the kimberlitic activity. To cite this article: A. Pouclet et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.