From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000

Why is population not evenly distributed throughout a country’s territory? This paper focuses on the case of Spain, in order to empirically test two complementary theoretical explanations: (a) first nature advantages or locational fundamentals; and (b) second nature advantages or increasing returns. We estimate population density and population growth equations for the case of Spain between 1787 and 2000. Our results suggest that locational fundamentals explain the distribution of population prior to industrialization and that industrialization reinforced the pre-existing regional population disparities, especially as the share of increasing-returns sectors in the Spanish economy became significant. Finally, we perform an ANOVA analysis which shows that although in the pre-industrial economy first nature advantages were the most important in explaining the growth in provincial population densities, these were progressively superseded by the influence of first via second nature effects.     

Full Positional Accuracy Analysis of Spatial Data by Means of Circular Statistics

The positional error in spatial data is defined as a vector by comparing the coordinates between the true position and the measured position. The standard tests to assess the positional accuracy use only the magnitude of the vector and omit the azimuth. This article suggests that the use of both values allows a much more complete analysis of the positional error. A set of tests is proposed that are relevant for this purpose and demonstrate that some important features are not identified by the common procedures. The test samples come from two datasets. The first is obtained from the comparison of 100 homologous points in two conventional maps, and the second one comes from the geometric calibration of a photogrammetric scanner. The results are analyzed and discussed, showing that important issues such as error anisotropy are detected only by means of the circular statistics tests and density maps of distribution. Therefore, tests that assess the goodness of fit for uniform distribution in azimuths, such as Rayleigh and Rao tests, give low probabilities (P = 0 and P > 0.01). Moreover, density maps working with both magnitude and angle can locate the outlier candidate and offer more information about the spatial distribution of error.     

Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula)

Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to Extremadura, a region of southwestern Spain, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn.     

A high-resolution operational forecast system for oil spill response in Belfast Lough

This paper presents a high-resolution operational forecast system for providing support to oil spill response in Belfast Lough. The system comprises an operational oceanographic module coupled to an oil spill forecast module that is integrated in a user-friendly web application. The oceanographic module is based on Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from COPERNICUS and from the UK Meteorological Office. Downscaled currents and meteorological forecasts are used to provide short-term oil spill fate and trajectory predictions at local scales. Both components of the system are calibrated and validated with observational data, including ADCP data, sea level, temperature and salinity measurements and drifting buoys released in the study area. The transport model is calibrated using a novel methodology to obtain the model coefficients that optimize the numerical simulations. The results obtained show the good performance of the system and its capability for oil spill forecast.     

A fully coupled simple model for unsaturated soils

Different phenomena influence the strength and volumetric behavior of unsaturated soils. Among the most important are suction hardening, hydraulic hysteresis, and the influence of volumetric strain on the soil-water retention curves. Fully coupled hydro-mechanical models require including all three phenomena in their constitutive relationships. Among these phenomena, suction hardening is the most influencing as it determines the apparent preconsolidation stress, the position of the loading-collapse yield surface, and the shift of both the isotropic consolidation and the critical state lines. In this paper, a fully coupled hydro mechanical model is presented. It is based on the modified Cam-Clay model but includes a yield surface with anisotropic hardening that takes account of the shift of the critical state line with suction. For highly overconsolidated materials, the sub-loading surface concept has been included in order to increase the precision of the model for these materials. The shift of the retention curves produced by volumetric strains is simulated using a hydraulic model based on the grain and current pore size distribution of the soil.     

Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter disasters (dzud) in Mongolia

Dzud is the Mongolian term for a severe winter weather disaster. With global change dzud may increase in frequency and intensity, placing livestock and livelihoods at risk. We conducted in-depth case studies of dzud impacts and responses in two mountain-steppe and two Gobi desert-steppe districts in Mongolia. We used focus groups, key informant interviews, a household survey and photovoice to document individual and community experiences with dzud and identify the factors that make some households and communities more vulnerable to dzud and others less so. We found that dzud is a complex social–ecological phenomenon and vulnerability to dzud is a function of interacting physical, biological, socio-economic and institutional factors. Vulnerability was affected by factors within and interactions between communities as well as cross-level dynamics. Communities that are well prepared for dzud at the household level may suffer disproportionate losses if exposure is increased by in-migrating livestock from other districts. Relief aid that helps prevent loss of life, suffering and impoverishment in the short-term may contribute to long-term dependence syndromes, social disparities, and lack of initiative on the part of both herders and local government. Based on our findings, we recommend that dzud policies and programs promote: (1) increased individual responsibility for disaster preparedness; (2) greater cooperation and communication on disaster planning and response among different actors within communities and across governance levels; (3) sustained and scaled out investment in building local capacity for collective action through formal herder organizations; and (4) effective cross-level institutions to manage pastoral movements and pastures.     

Stellar clusters in the nuclear regions of AGN with the Advanced Camera for Surveys

We explore the role of star clusters in the nuclear regions of galaxies through their connection with active galactic nuclei (AGN). Nuclear star clusters (NCs) are conspicuous in the centers of most nearby galaxies, all along the Hubble sequence. These clusters are probably the faint-end distribution of the central supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in massive bulges. On the other hand, star formation is known to be ongoing in the majority of Seyfert nuclei and in many low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (LLAGN). We study two samples of AGN galaxies (75 Seyferts and 26 LLAGN) in the near-ultraviolet with the Hubble Space Telescope’s Advanced Camera for Surveys. We aim to better understand the connection between the growing of the SMBH and the build-up of the bulge, and we also intend to make statistical progress and determine the properties of the population of NCs coexisting with growing SMBHs.     

The Cali meteorite fall: A new H/L ordinary chondrite

Abstract— The fall of the Cali meteorite took place on 6 July 2007 at 16 h 32 ± 1 min local time (21 h 32 ± 1 min UTC). A daylight fireball was witnessed by hundreds of people in the Cauca Valley in Colombia from which 10 meteorite samples with a total mass of 478 g were recovered near 3°24.3′N, 76°30.6′W. The fireball trajectory and radiant have been reconstructed with moderate accuracy. From the computed radiant and from considering various plausible velocities, we obtained a range of orbital solutions that suggest that the Cali progenitor meteoroid probably originated in the main asteroid belt. Based on petrography, mineral chemistry, magnetic susceptibility, thermoluminescence, and bulk chemistry, the Cali meteorite is classified as an H/L4 ordinary chondrite breccia.