Landform instability and land-use dynamics in tropical high mountains, Central Mexico

This investigation is an analysis of the influence of landform instability on the distribution of land-use dynamics in a hydrographical basin, located in the Mexican Volcanic Belt mountain range (central Mexico), currently affected by substantial changes in land use and deforestation. A landform map was produced, in addition to seven attribute maps - altimetry, drainage density, slope, relief energy, potential erosion, geology and tectonics - which were considered as factors for determining landform instability through Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis. Likewise, the direction and rhythm of land-use dynamics were analyzed in four dates - between 1976 and 2000 - and cross tabulations were made between them, in order to analyze the trends and processes of land-use dynamics. Afterwards, the databases obtained were cross tabulated with the landform variables to derive areas, percentages and correlation indices. In the study area, high-instability landforms are associated with most ancient volcanic and sedimentary landforms, where high altitude, drainage density, slope and potential to develop gravitational and fluvial processes are the major factors favouring a land-use pattern, dominated by the conservation of extensive forest land, abandonment of human land use and regeneration of disturbed areas. In contrast, low-instability landforms correspond to alluvial plains and lava hills covered by pyroclasts, where low potential erosion to develop fluvial processes, added to water and soil availability and accessibility, have favoured a land-use pattern dominated by the expansion of agroforestry plantations and human settlements, showing a marked trend towards either intensification or permanence of the current land use and with little abandonment and regeneration.     

Late Pleistocene tectonic-geomorphological development within a passive margin — The Cariatá trough, northeastern Brazil

Studies on the geomorphological evolution of the South American passive margin have been based on the pediplanation model, which predicts that its morphology is a response to regional uniform uplift and concomitant development of erosion surfaces. We combined remote sensing, geological mapping, lithostratigraphic and facies analyses, and luminescence dating in the Cariatá trough, northeastern Brazil, in order to determine how brittle tectonics and climate influenced colluviation and the shaping of local landforms in the Quaternary. Our work indicates that Cariatá is an asymmetrical trough  40 km long,  25 km wide, 250–550 m deep, and delimited by ENE–WSW-trending faults to the north and south. We recognized an ENE–WSW-oriented compression related to a strike-slip faulting regime, which corresponds to the present-day stress field in the region. This faulting event led to the deposition of colluvial fans, shed from adjacent uplifted crustal blocks, in a tectonically controlled depression. The colluvial succession is  45 m thick and presents two facies assemblages that filled the southern and, in particular, the northern borders of the trough: non-cohesive debrisflow and mudflow deposits. Optically stimulated luminescence dates of the sedimentary infill yielded ages at 224–128 ka and 45–28 ka, dominated by debrisflow and mudflow deposits, respectively. These ages may be over-estimated due to poor bleaching of colluvium, but they and our field data suggest that the margins of the trough were tectonically uplifted and eroded twice in the Late Pleistocene. The spasmodic colluvial accretion reflects the occurrence of high-magnitude, low-recurrence episodes probably associated with climate shifts in a semi-arid hillslope system. It follows that the present-day low-lying piedmont in which the Cariatá trough occurs is a juxtaposition of surfaces of various ages. This trough may have counterparts across the region. These conclusions do not corroborate the application of the cyclical pediplanation hypothesis in the area.     

Contribution of non-pollen palynomorphs to the paleolimnological study of a high-altitude Andean lake (Laguna Verde Alta,Venezuela)

This paper evaluates the potential usefulness of non-pollen palynomorphs or NPPs (microfossils other than pollen and spores present in palynological preparations) contained in lake sediments in the paleolimnological reconstruction of high altitude environments (>4,000 m) from the Venezuelan Andes. A synthetic, quantitative approach is employed, instead of the classical analytical and mostly qualitative approach commonly used so far for NPPs. The main sources of variation are the Pediastrum–Botryococcus alternation and the relationship between these two algae and animal remains such as Acari legs, postabdomina of Cladocera, mandibles of other invertebrates, and an unknown type called LVA-1. Other significant microfossils are remains of Rivularia-type and turbellarian oocytes, including Gyratrix. The sequence initiates around 15,000 calibrated years before present (cal BP) with the deglaciation of the lake catchment, high water levels and still cold climates. A phase of lower lake levels was recorded between about 12,000 and 6,000 cal BP. Temperatures increased by around 9,000 and 7,000 cal BP, and then decreased until 6,000 cal BP. Since that time, both lake levels and temperature increased again and stabilized at about 4,000 cal BP, when they reach modern-like values. These results show a good agreement with previous studies based on pollen, diatom and oxygen isotope analyses, and provide additional paleoecological information, as for example the possibility of a previously unrecorded Younger Dryas signal. The inclusion of quantitative NPP analysis in routine paleolimnological studies using synthetic methods is thus recommended. Possible future improvements are suggested, mainly those related with the development and use of NPP modern analogs.     

Scale-dependent correlations between soil heavy metals and As around four coal-fired power plants of northern Greece

We analyse the concentration of five trace elements (As, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the topsoil of the Kozani-Ptolemais basin where four coal-fired power plants run to provide almost 47.8 % of electricity requirements in Greece. We assume that if the power plants have altered the spatial (co)variation of the analysed elements through their toxic by-products, their effect would be observable only on a small spatial scale, since deposition of airborne pollutants is more evident if it is near the emission source. We used Factorial Cokriging to estimate the small-scale correlations among soil elements and to compare them to large spatial-scale correlations. Soil samples were collected from 92 sites. Given the low concentrations in soil heavy metals and As, we observed no serious soil contamination risk. We estimated correlations among the analysed elements on two spatial scales. On the larger scale, Ni and As exhibited higher correlation and received higher weights for the first regionalized factor, contrary to Cu, Pb and Zn which weighted more for the second regionalized factor. On the small spatial scale As associated with neither Ni nor other heavy metals. We conclude that soil arsenic has been altered by enrichment caused by some power plants through fly ash deposition and/or disposal. However, enrichment of soil elements was detectable only on the smaller spatial scale because anthropogenic inputs in soil through airborne emissions and subsequent deposition are evident only in the vicinity of the emission source.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.