Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability

Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead.     

A minimal dynamical model for tidal synchronization and orbit circularization

We study tidal synchronization and orbit circularization in a minimal model that takes into account only the essential ingredients of tidal deformation and dissipation in the secondary body. In previous work we introduced the model (Escribano et al. in Phys. Rev. E, 78:036216, 2008); here we investigate in depth the complex dynamics that can arise from this simplest model of tidal synchronization and orbit circularization. We model an extended secondary body of mass m by two point masses of mass m/2 connected with a damped spring. This composite body moves in the gravitational field of a primary of mass M ≫ m located at the origin. In this simplest case oscillation and rotation of the secondary are assumed to take place in the plane of the Keplerian orbit. The gravitational interactions of both point masses with the primary are taken into account, but that between the point masses is neglected. We perform a Taylor expansion on the exact equations of motion to isolate and identify the different effects of tidal interactions. We compare both sets of equations and study the applicability of the approximations, in the presence of chaos. We introduce the resonance function as a resource to identify resonant states. The approximate equations of motion can account for both synchronization into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance and the circularization of the orbit as the only true asymptotic attractors, together with the existence of relatively long-lived metastable orbits with the secondary in p:q (p and q being co-prime integers) synchronous rotation.     

Photometric analysis of V30 of open cluster NGC 7789

We present the photometric solutions of the variable star V30 that is in the foreground of intermediate open cluster NGC 7789.The observations were done in the V passband using the 2 m telescope at the IUCAA-Girawali Observatory in India.The analysis is done using the Wilson-Devinney Code (2003) and the fitted light curve is presented.The photometric solutions reveal a W-subtype contact configuration.The photometric mass ratio is found to be 0.395 and the absolute masses and radii for the components are ded...