Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0°C for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a,–0.27 p/10a, and–0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.     

Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.     

内蒙古黄旗海不同粒级湖泊沉积物Rb、Sr组成与环境变化

Based on the geochemical elements Rb and Sr in sediments with three different grain size fractions from profile H3 on the northern lacustrine bottomland 13 m above the Huangqihai Lake surface in 1986,the paper investigates the record of palaeolake stand state, sedimentary environmental evolution,and winter monsoon change.First,these samples are separated into three different grain size fractions,i.e.,total sediments,77-20μm and〈20μm. Second,the chemical elements-Rb and Sr-of the grain size separation were tested and analyzed systematically in this paper.Then the elements compositions of these samples are measured using VP-320 mode fluorescence spectrum instrument,respectively.The magnetic susceptibility of these samples is measured using Kappabridge KLY-3 mode instrument made in Czech AGICO Company.The results showed the elements and the ratios varied regularly with the grain size.But the ratio of Rb/Sr in the sediments〈20μm correlates positively with the magnetic susceptibility of these samples.Therefore,the ratio of Rb/Sr in the fraction〈20 μm from the lake sediments reflected the strengthening of the weathering in the deposition sites.It is a good indicator of the summer monsoon-induced weathering and pedogenesis fluctuations and can be used to reconstruct the conditions of the paleoclimate and paleoenvironment.     

The dependence of precipitation on wind direction over the Kuroshio front in the winter East China Sea

This study investigates atmospheric responses to the directions of surface wind over the Kuroshio front in the East China Sea, using wintertime satellite-derived data sets. Composite maps of sea surface temperature, wind speed, precipitation, turbulent heat flux, surface wind divergence, and the curl of wind vectors above the atmospheric boundary layer are depicted based on the classification of intense northeasterly (along the front) and northwesterly (across the front) winds over the East China Sea. When northeasterly winds prevail, considerable precipitation occurs on the offshore side of the Kuroshio front, in contrast to periods when northwesterly winds prevail. First, the northeasterly winds strengthen above the front because of the downward transfer of momentum from the fast-moving air at higher levels and/or an adjustment of sea level pressure over the oceanic front, although the process by which the influence of the Kuroshio penetrates beyond the marine atmospheric boundary layer remains unclear. Second, a cyclonic vortex forms above the marine atmospheric boundary layer (at 850-hPa height) on the offshore side of the front, and thereafter, surface wind convergence via Ekman suction (hence, enhanced precipitation) occurs over the East China Sea shelf breaks. The northeasterly winds blow over the East China Sea when the Aleutian Low retreats to the east and when high sea level pressure covers the northern Sea of Japan.     

Evolution of the Fine Structure of Magnetic Fields in the Quiet Sun: Observations from Sunrise/IMaX and Extrapolations

Observations with the balloon-borne Sunrise/Imaging Magnetograph eXperiment (IMaX) provide high spatial resolution (roughly 100 km at disk center) measurements of the magnetic field in the photosphere of the quiet Sun. To investigate the magnetic structure of the chromosphere and corona, we extrapolate these photospheric measurements into the upper solar atmosphere and analyze a 22-minute long time series with a cadence of 33 seconds. Using the extrapolated magnetic-field lines as tracer, we investigate temporal evolution of the magnetic connectivity in the quiet Sun’s atmosphere. The majority of magnetic loops are asymmetric in the sense that the photospheric field strength at the loop foot points is very different. We find that the magnetic connectivity of the loops changes rapidly with a typical connection recycling time of about 3±1 minutes in the upper solar atmosphere and 12±4 minutes in the photosphere. This is considerably shorter than previously found. Nonetheless, our estimate of the energy released by the associated magnetic-reconnection processes is not likely to be the sole source for heating the chromosphere and corona in the quiet Sun.     

Performance results of HESP physical model

As a continuation to the published work on model based calibration technique with HESP(Hanle Echelle Spectrograph) as a case study, in this paper we present the performance results of the technique. We also describe how the open parameters were chosen in the model for optimization, the glass data accuracy and handling the discrepancies. It is observed through simulations that the discrepancies in glass data can be identified but not quantifiable. So having an accurate glass data is important which is possible to obtain from the glass manufacturers. The model’s performance in various aspects is presented using the ThAr calibration frames from HESP during its pre-shipment tests. Accuracy of model predictions and its wave length calibration comparison with conventional empirical fitting, the behaviour of open parameters in optimization, model’s ability to track instrumental drifts in the spectrum and the double fibres performance were discussed. It is observed that the optimized model is able to predict to a high accuracy the drifts in the spectrum from environmental fluctuations. It is also observed that the pattern in the spectral drifts across the 2D spectrum which vary from image to image is predictable with the optimized model. We will also discuss the possible science cases where the model can contribute.     

Numerical simulation of wave-induced currents combined with parabolic mild-slope equation in curvilinear coordinates

Researches on breaking-induced currents by waves are summarized firstly in this paper. Then, a combined numerical model in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates is presented to simulate wave-induced current in areas with curved boundary or irregular coastline. The proposed wave-induced current model includes a nearshore current module established through orthogonal curvilinear transformation form of shallow water equations and a wave module based on the curvilinear parabolic approximation wave equation. The wave module actually serves as the driving force to provide the current module with required radiation stresses. The Crank-Nicolson finite difference scheme and the alternating directions implicit method are used to solve the wave and current module, respectively. The established surf zone currents model is validated by two numerical experiments about longshore currents and rip currents in basins with rip channel and breakwater. The numerical results are compared with the measured data and published numerical results.     

APPLICATION OF ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS TO ASSESSING THE ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS IN THE JIANGHAN PLAIN

Wetlands in the Jianghan Plain are important components of wetland types in lake area in the middle and lower reaches the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and they fulfill many uses and functions related to hydrology,waste assimilation, ecosystem productivity and biodiversity. Owing to natural factors and human activities, especially excessive reclamation from lakes, the shrinking process of the lakes has been accelerated. Wetland ecosystem has shown the characteristics of vulnerability. According to the analysis of wetland ecological function in the Jianghan Plain, this paper presented an index system related to productivity, stability and environmental capacity. By using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process, we computed the values of the relative weights of the indexes, and evaluated the vulnerability level of the wetland ecosystem by the method of multi-indexes. The case study showed that the fragile extent of wetland ecosystem in the Jianghan Plain is 5.6. This means that the wetland ecosystem in the Jiang-han Plain is laid to the state of middle vulnerability. Therefore, the wetland conservation and eco-rehabilitation in the JiangJaan Plain should be paid attention to.     

A Multiple Flare Scenario where the Classic Long-Duration Flare Was Not the Source of a CME

A series of flares (GOES class M, M and C) and a CME were observed in close succession on 20 January 2004 in NOAA 10540. Radio observations, which took the form of types II, III and N bursts, were associated with these events. We use the combined observations from TRACE, EIT, Hα images from Kwasan, MDI magnetograms and GOES to understand the complex development of this event. Contrary to a standard interpretation, we conclude that the first two impulsive flares are part of the CME launch process while the following long-duration event flare represents simply the recovery phase. Observations show that the flare ribbons not only separate but also shift along the magnetic inversion line so that magnetic reconnection progresses stepwise to neighboring flux tubes. We conclude that “tether cutting” reconnection in the sheared arcade progressively transforms it to a twisted flux tube, which becomes unstable, leading to a CME. We interpret the third flare, a long-duration event, as a combination of the classical two-ribbon flare with the relaxation process following forced reconnection between the expanding CME structure and neighboring magnetic fields. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River

Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956–2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had at- tracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P, Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual pre- cipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is –3.9oC, temperature is the main factor in- fluencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area be-tween Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising of annual precipitation, while direct runoff coefficient was inversely proportional to temperature. In the source regions of the Huanghe River with the increase of average annual temperature, the impacts of temperature on runoff coefficients be-come insignificant.