Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach

This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe.     

Subduction metamorphism of serpentinite‐hosted carbonates beyond antigorite‐serpentinite dehydration (Nevado‐Filábride Complex,Spain)

At sub‐arc depths, the release of carbon from subducting slab lithologies is mostly controlled by fluid released by devolatilization reactions such as dehydration of antigorite (Atg‐) serpentinite to prograde peridotite. Here we investigate carbonate–silicate rocks hosted in Atg‐serpentinite and prograde chlorite (Chl‐) harzburgite in the Milagrosa and Almirez ultramafic massifs of the palaeo‐subducted Nevado‐Filábride Complex (NFC, Betic Cordillera, S. Spain). These massifs provide a unique opportunity to study the stability of carbonate during subduction metamorphism at P–T conditions before and after the dehydration of Atg‐serpentinite in a warm subduction setting. In the Milagrosa massif, carbonate–silicate rocks occur as lenses of Ti‐clinohumite–diopside–calcite marbles, diopside–dolomite marbles and antigorite–diopside–dolomite rocks hosted in clinopyroxene‐bearing Atg‐serpentinite. In Almirez, carbonate–silicate rocks are hosted in Chl‐harzburgite and show a high‐grade assemblage composed of olivine, Ti‐clinohumite, diopside, chlorite, dolomite, calcite, Cr‐bearing magnetite, pentlandite and rare aragonite inclusions. These NFC carbonate–silicate rocks have variable CaO and CO₂ contents at nearly constant Mg/Si ratio and high Ni and Cr contents, indicating that their protoliths were variable mixtures of serpentine and Ca‐carbonate (i.e., ophicarbonates). Thermodynamic modelling shows that the carbonate–silicate rocks attained peak metamorphic conditions similar to those of their host serpentinite (Milagrosa massif; 550–600°C and 1.0–1.4 GPa) and Chl‐harzburgite (Almirez massif; 1.7–1.9 GPa and 680°C). Microstructures, mineral chemistry and phase relations indicate that the hybrid carbonate–silicate bulk rock compositions formed before prograde metamorphism, likely during seawater hydrothermal alteration, and subsequently underwent subduction metamorphism. In the CaO–MgO–SiO₂ ternary, these processes resulted in a compositional variability of NFC serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks along the serpentine‐calcite mixing trend, similar to that observed in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate‐rocks in other palaeo‐subducted metamorphic terranes. Thermodynamic modelling using classical models of binary H₂O–CO₂ fluids shows that the compositional variability along this binary determines the temperature of the main devolatilization reactions, the fluid composition and the mineral assemblages of reaction products during prograde subduction metamorphism. Thermodynamic modelling considering electrolytic fluids reveals that H₂O and molecular CO₂ are the main fluid species and charged carbon‐bearing species occur only in minor amounts in equilibrium with carbonate–silicate rocks in warm subduction settings. Consequently, accounting for electrolytic fluids at these conditions slightly increases the solubility of carbon in the fluids compared with predictions by classical binary H₂O–CO₂ fluids, but does not affect the topology of phase relations in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate‐rocks. Phase relations, mineral composition and assemblages of Milagrosa and Almirez (meta)‐serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks are consistent with local equilibrium between an infiltrating fluid and the bulk rock composition and indicate a limited role of infiltration‐driven decarbonation. Our study shows natural evidence for the preservation of carbonates in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks beyond the Atg‐serpentinite breakdown at sub‐arc depths, demonstrating that carbon can be recycled into the deep mantle.     

High-Frequency Response of the Atmospheric Electric Potential Gradient Under Strong and Dry Boundary-Layer Convection

The spectral response of atmospheric electric potential gradient gives important information about phenomena affecting this gradient at characteristic time scales ranging from years (e.g., solar modulation) to fractions of a second (e.g., turbulence). While long-term time scales have been exhaustively explored, short-term scales have received less attention. At such frequencies, space-charge transport inside the planetary boundary layer becomes a sizeable contribution to the potential gradient variability. For the first time, co-located (Évora, Portugal) measurements of boundary-layer backscatter profiles and the 100-Hz potential gradient are reported. Five campaign days are analyzed, providing evidence for a relation between high-frequency response of the potential gradient and strong dry convection.     

Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis

The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard approach, the seismicity is taken to be random and the predictions are held fixed. 'Conditioning' on the predictions this way tends to reject the null hypothesis even when it is true, if the predictions depend on the seismicity history. An approach that seems less likely to yield erroneous conclusions is to compare the predictions with the predictions of a 'sensible' random prediction algorithm that uses seismicity up to time t to predict what will happen after time t. The null hypothesis is then that the predictions are no better than those of the random algorithm. Significance levels can be assigned to this test in a more satisfactory way, because the distribution of the success rate of the random predictions is under our control. Failure to reject the null hypothesis indicates that there is no evidence that any extra-seismic information the predictor uses (electrical signals for example) helps to predict earthquakes.     

Determining the drivers of long‐term aridity variability: a southern African case study

This paper highlights the importance of differentiating between precipitation amount and moisture availability (‘humidity’/‘aridity’) when considering proxy records of climate change. While the terms are sometimes used interchangeably, moisture availability is determined by both (i) precipitation amount and (ii) temperature, through its influence on potential evapotranspiration. As many palaeoenvironmental proxies reflect changes in this water balance rather than purely precipitation amount, it is important to distinguish between the potential relative influences of precipitation and temperature if those records are to be interpreted in terms of climate mechanisms and/or compared with model outputs. As a case study, we explore how precipitation and temperature have determined moisture availability in South Africa's summer rainfall zone over the last 45 000 years. Using quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature, summer rainfall amount and an aridity index, our analysis reveals strong spatiotemporal variability in the relative influences of precipitation and temperature on aridity. Temperature is shown to have exerted a considerable and even dominant influence on moisture availability, resulting in elevated humidity during the last glacial period, despite significant reductions in precipitation amount.     

The soft X-ray polychromator for the Solar Maximum Mission

The 1.4–22.4 Å range of the soft X-ray spectrum includes a multitude of emission lines which are important for the diagnosis of plasmas in the 1.5–50 million degree temperature range. In particular, the hydrogen and helium-like ions of all abundant solar elements with Z > 7 have their primary transitions in this region and these are especially useful for solar flare and active region studies. The soft X-ray polychromator (XRP) is a high resolution experiment working in this spectral region. The XRP consists of two instruments with a common control, data handling and power system. The bent crystal spectrometer is designed for high time resolution studies in lines of Fe i-Fe xxvi and Ca xix. The flat crystal scanning spectrometer provides for 7 channel polychromatic mapping of flares and active regions in the resonance lines of O viii, Ne ix, Mg xi, Si xiii, S xv, Ca xix, and Fe xxv with 14 spatial resolution. In its spectral scanning mode it covers essentially the entire 1.4–22.5 Å region.This paper summarizes the scientific objectives of the XRP experiment and describes the characteristics and capabilities of the two instruments. Sufficient technical information for experiment feasibility studies is included and the resources and procedures planned for the use of the XRP within the context of the Solar Maximum Mission is briefly discussed.     

Effectiveness of the structural fisheries policy in the European Union

This paper presents an analysis of the effectiveness of the community structural policy in the fisheries sector by comparing the relative level of compliance with objectives (reduction of fleets and economic viability) with the mechanisms that have been implemented (structural funds and allocation of quotas). On the one hand, this analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the level of structural funds and the attainment of goals. On the other hand, it was found that the greater the relative availability of quotas, the poorer the countries performed in complying with the objective of reducing the fishing capacity, and the higher the expectations of achieving acceptable yields. These correlations, however, were not very strong.