Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Strato-mesospheric ozone and IMF sector boundary

Summary We find no effect of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF) sector boundary crossing in ozone at altitudes ranging from the middle stratosphere(10 hPa) to the lower mesosphere(0.4 hPa) at middle latitudes(40°–60° N), based on winter data over the period of December 1979–December 1982.

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Резюме Мы не нaшлu нuкaко о эффекma nересеченuя секmорноŭ рaнuцы межnлaнеmно о мa нumно о nоля в озоне в облaсmu высоm меж?rt;у сре?rt;неŭ сmрamосфероŭ(10 Пa) u нuжнеŭ мезосфероŭ(0,4 Пa) нa сре?rt;нuх шuроmaх(40°–60° с.ш.), nрuменяя зuмнuе ?rt;aнные зa nерuо?rt; ?rt;екaбрь 1979 – ?rt;екaбрь 1982 .

     

Mechanisms of shear failure in artificial fractures of sandstone and their implication for models of hydromechanical coupling

Summary Direct shear tests, in which the behaviour of the rock surfaces during shear could be continuously observed, were used to study the shear failure of a profiled and clean discontinuity artificially prepared from natural sandstone. Displacement transducers were used to measure the normal and shear displacements. A series of strain gauges glued on the sides of the upper block provided information on the change of the stress field occurring close to the discontinuities whilst shear displacement increased, and these changes were then compared with the behaviour of the profiled surface. The results of the laboratory tests, the sequence of photographs taken for most of them, and the results conducted with a sample of similar shape made from the same rock material and tested in a rotary shear machine, allowed several stages and mechanisms of failure to be defined: static friction and mobilization of initial shear stiffness; mobilization of sliding; mobilization of brittle fracture; post-peak failure of the teeth; descent of the teeth; gliding and ploughing; commencement of second cycle of shearing. In many respects these stages are similar to those occurring between sliding surfaces of metal and suggest that the analyses developed in tribology may be relevant to the development of constitutive models for predicting the hydromechanical coupled behaviour of a discontinuity with shear displacement. Such models will have to consider these different stages of shear, because the original discontinuity changes its geometry with displacement and is filled with gouge which changes its grain size with displacement.     

The Amazon river breeze and the local boundary layer: I. Observations

Observations of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer over the Amazon rain forest, made at sites close to the confluence of the Solimões and Negro rivers (approximately at 3°S, 60°W) near Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, show the existence of a diurnal rotation of the wind near the surface and the frequent presence of low-level nocturnal wind maxima. These circulations are shown to be plausibly explained as elements of a river and land breeze circulation induced by the thermal contrast between the rivers and the adjacent forest.     

Enhancements of CO and O3 from burnings in sugar cane fields

The manual harvest of sugar cane requires the burning of its foliage. This burning has strongly increased in Brazil after the National Alcohol Program was started which substituted automobile gasoline engines for alcohol engines. Presently, the source strength per unit area of this rural pollution is comparable to the well-known biomass burning source in Amazonia. The observed concentrations of CO and O₃ in the rural area of the state of São Paulo during the 1988 burning season were twice as large as those reported from an aircraft experiment of 1985 for biomass burnings of the tropical rain forest. Results are reported from airplane measurements and from three fixed ground stations. Mixing ratios of ozone and carbon monoxide in the height range below 6 km are normally less than 40 and 100 ppbv, (parts per billion by volume), respectively, in the absence of burnings. A strong O₃ and CO layer was observed during the burning period with peak concentrations of 80 ppbv of ozone and 580 ppbv of CO at about 2 km. The concentrations of CH₄ and CO₂ were also large, 1756 ppbv and 409 ppmv, respectively, at 1500 m. During the dry season period of the experiment, the ground based O₃ average diurnal variations obtained at the rural sites were practically identical to the typical urban variation observed at São José dos Campos, with daytime ozone values between 45 and 60 ppbv. A second three-day airplane excursion to the surgar cane fields in the wet season of 1989 has produces results to be contrasted with the dry (burning) season of 1988 and 1989. Carbon monoxide concentrations were below 100 ppbv at all heights and ozone concentrations were around 30–40 ppbv. The maximum daytime concentrations at the ground station Bauru was 25 ppbv of O₃, and at Jaboticabal it was 35 ppbv of O₃, only one half of what was observed in the dry season.Universidade Estadual de São Paulo.     

Characterization of dissolved organic materials in surface waters within the blast zone of Mount St Helens,Washington

After the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St Helens, the concentration of dissolved organic material in surface waters near the volcano increased significantly as a result of the destruction of the surrounding conifer forest. Low molecular weight organic compounds identified in the blast zone surface waters were derived from pyrolysis of plant and soil organic materials incorporated into pyroclastic flow, mud flow and debris avalanche deposits. A major fraction of the dissolved organic material consisted of high molecular weight, colored, organic acids that are similar in their general properties to aquatic fulvic acids found in more typical surface waters except for greater sulfur contents. The other major fraction of the dissolved organic material consisted of hydrophilic acids, which may include compounds capable of supporting heterotrophic microorganisms, and precursors in the formation of aquatic fulvic acids. The organic chemistry of blast zone surface waters will probably be greatly influenced by the May 18, 1980, eruption for many years.     

Aquifer development planning to supply a seaside resort: a case study in Goa,India

Using the hydrogeological and socio-economic data derived from a European Commission research project on the measurement, monitoring and sustainability of the coastal environment, two optimization models have been applied to satisfy the future water resources needs of the coastal zone of Bardez in Goa, India. The number of tourists visiting Goa since the 1970s has risen considerably, and roughly a third of them go to Bardez taluka, prompting growth in the tourist-related infrastructure in the region. The optimization models are non-linear mixed integer models that have been solved using GAMS/DICOPT++ commercial software. Optimization models were used, firstly, to indicate the most suitable zones for building seaside resorts and wells to supply the tourist industry with an adequate amount of water, and secondly, to indicate the best location for wells to adequately supply pre-existing hotels. The models presented will help to define the optimal locations for the wells and the hydraulic infrastructures needed to satisfy demand at minimum cost, taking into account environmental constraints such as the risk of saline intrusion.

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Résumé A l’aide de données hydrogéologiques et socio-économiques, dérivées d’un projet de recherche de la Commission Européenne sur l’étude, la surveillance et la durabilité de l’environnement c?tier, deux modèles d’optimisation ont été appliqués en vue de satisfaire les besoins futurs en ressources en eau de la zone c?tière de Bardez au Goa en Inde. Le nombre de touristes qui visitent le Goa depuis les années 70 a considérablement augmenté et environ un tiers d’entre eux se rend à Bardez taluka, ce qui encourage la croissance des infrastructures liées au tourisme dans la région. Les modèles d’optimisation sont des modèles non linéaires mixtes en nombres entiers qui ont été résolus en utilisant le logiciel commercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Les modèles d’optimisation ont été utilisés pour indiquer premièrement les zones les plus appropriées pour construire des stations balnéaires et des puits pour approvisionner en quantité d’eau suffisante l’industrie touristique, et deuxièmement pour indiquer la meilleure localisation de puits pour l’alimentation des h?tels préexistants. Les modèles présentés aideront à définir les localisations optimales des puits et des infrastructures hydrauliques nécessaires à la satisfaction de la demande à un co?t minimum, tout en prenant en compte les contraintes environnementales, tel que le risque d’intrusion saline.

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Resumen Se han aplicado dos modelos de optimización en base a datos socio-económicos e hidrogeológicos derivados de un proyecto de investigación de la Comisión Europea sobre medición, monitoreo y sostenibilidad del ambiente costero para satisfacer las necesidades futuras de recursos hídricos de la zona costera de Bardez en Goa, India. El número de turistas que visita Goa desde la década de 1970′s ha subido considerablemente y cerca de un tercio de ellos van a Bardez taluka impulsando el crecimiento en la infraestructura turística de la región. Los modelos de optimización son modelos de números enteros mixtos no-lineales que se han resuelto usando el programa comercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Los modelos de optimización se usaron, primero para indicar las zonas más adecuadas para la construcción de centros de diversión en las márgenes del océano y pozos para abastecer la industria turística con una adecuada cantidad de agua, y segundo, para indicar la mejor localización de pozos para el abastecimiento de hoteles pre-existentes. Los modelos que se presentan ayudarán a definir las localizaciones óptimas para los pozos y las infraestructuras hidráulicas necesarias para satisfacer la demanda al mínimo costo, tomando en consideración restricciones ambientales tal como el riesgo de intrusión salina.

     

Analysis of the weightiness of site effects on reinforced concrete (RC) building seismic behaviour: The Adra town example (SE Spain)

The damage distribution in Adra town (south‐eastern Spain) during the 1993 and 1994 Adra earthquakes (5.0 magnitude), that reached a maximum intensity degree of VII (European Macroseismic Scale (EMS scale)), was concentrated mainly in the south‐east zone of the town and the most relevant damage occurred in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with four or five storeys. In order to evaluate the influence of ground condition on RC building behaviour, geological, geomorphological and geophysical surveys were carried out, and a detailed map of ground surface structure was obtained. Short‐period microtremor observations were performed in 160 sites on a 100m × 100m dimension grid and Nakamura's method was applied in order to determine a distribution map of soil predominant periods. Shorter predominant periods (0.1–0.3 s) were found in mountainous and neighbouring zones and larger periods (greater than 0.5 s) in thicker Holocene alluvial fans. A relationship T = (0.049 ± 0.001)N, where T is the natural period of swaying motion and N is the number of storeys, has been empirically obtained by using microtremor measurements at the top of 38 RC buildings (ranging from 2 to 9 storeys). 1‐D simulation of strong motion on different soil conditions and for several typical RC buildings were computed, using the acceleration record in Adra town of the 1993 earthquake. It is noteworthy that all the aforementioned results show the influence of site effects in the degree and distribution of observed building damage. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mapping and initial dilution estimation of an ocean outfall plume using an autonomous underwater vehicle

A monitoring mission to study the shape and estimate initial dilution of the S. Jacinto outfall plume using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) was performed on July 30, 2002. In order to reduce the uncertainty about plume location and to concentrate the vehicle mission only in the hydrodynamic mixing zone, outputs of a near-field prediction model, based on effective real-time in situ measurements of current speed and direction and density stratification, were opportunistically used to specify in real time the mission transects. The surface characteristics of the outfall plume were found to be influenced strongly by the relatively weak stratification and low current velocities. Dilution was estimated using a temperature–salinity (TS-) diagram with initial mixing lines between wastewater and ambient waters. Effluent dilutions were at least 30:1 in this study. In order to efficiently map the plume dispersion we applied the least-squares collocation method technique. Our results demonstrate that AUVs can provide high-quality measurements of physical properties of effluent plumes in a quite effective manner and valuable considerations about the initial mixing processes under real oceanic conditions can be further investigated.     

Ponderomotive effects in magnetospheric hydromagnetic waves

The ponderomotive force (PMF) is a ubiquitous nonlinear wave effect arising in plasma physics when applied wave fields or plasma parameters have significant spatial gradients. Some basic properties of the PMF are described as they relate to ULF hydromagnetic waves in the magnetosphere. Examples are given of recent results obtained using both analytical and numerical techniques for waves from the lowest frequencies (determined by the dimensions of the magnetosphere) up to the vicinity of the ion cyclotron frequency. These results include the possibilities that the PMF may transport plasma over large distances in the magnetosphere, and that the PMF may energize magnetospheric ions significantly. In particular the PMF may play a role in transporting and energizing O⁺ ions from the ionosphere into the body of the magnetosphere. The PMF can also generate nonlinear coupling between the slow magnetosonic mode and the other hydromagnetic modes. This should lead to limitation of density enhancements and, notably in the case of standing Alfvén waves, to spatial harmonic generation, secularly growing frequency shifts, and saturation of driven wave fields. Some implications of these results for the magnetosphere are discussed.Based on an invited review given in IAGA Symposium 3.07, Nonlinear and Kinetic Effects in ULF Waves, at the IUGG XXI General Assembly, Boulder, Colorado, July 2-14, 1995.