Tree Species Composition in European Pristine Forests: Comparison of Stand Data to Model Predictions

The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made.     

中国热带气候特征

Reviewing some important German scientists who have developed climatic regionalizationschemes either on a global or Chinese scale, their various definitions of the tropical climatecharacteristics in China are discussed and compared with Huang Bingwei's climate classificationscheme and the identification of the tropical climate therein. It can be seen that, due to differentmethodological approaches of the climatic regionalization schemes, the definitions of the tropics varyand hence also their spatial distribution in China. However, it is found that the tropical climate typeoccupies only a peripheral part of southern China, though it firmly represents a distinctive type ofclimate that is subsequently associated with a great economic importance for China. As such, thetropical climate type was mostly identified with its agro-climatological significance, that is by givingfavourable growing conditions all-year round for perennial crops with a great heat demand. Tropicalclimate is, hence, conventionally regarded to be govemed by all-year round summer conditions "wherewinter never comes".     

Uplift, exhumation and precipitation: tectonic and climatic control of Late Cenozoic landscape evolution in the northern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina

Deciphering the evolution of mountain belts requires information on the temporal history of both topographic growth and erosion. The exhumation rate of a mountain range undergoing shortening is related to the erodability of the uplifting range as well as the efficiency of erosion, which partly depends on the available precipitation. Young, rapidly deposited sediments have low thermal conductivity and are readily eroded, in contrast to underlying resistant basement rocks that have a higher thermal conductivity. Apatite fission‐track thermochronology can quantify cooling; thermal models constrain the relationship between this cooling and exhumation. By utilizing geological relations for a datum, we can examine the evolution of rock uplift, surface uplift and exhumation. In the northern Sierras Pampeanas of Argentina, a young sedimentary basin that overlay resistant crystalline basement prior to rapid exhumation provides an ideal setting to examine the effect of contrasting thermal and erosional regimes. There, tectonically active reverse‐fault‐bounded blocks partly preserve a basement peneplain at elevations in excess of 4500 m. Prior to exhumation, the two study areas were covered by 1000 and 1600 m of recently deposited sediments; this sequence begins with shallow marine deposits immediately overlying the regional erosion surface. Apatite fission‐track data were obtained from vertical transects in the Calchaquíes and Aconquija ranges. At Cumbres Calchaquíes, erosion leading to the development of the peneplain commenced in the Cretaceous, probably as a result of rift‐shoulder uplift. In contrast, Sierra Aconquija cooled rapidly between 5.5 and 4.5 Myr. At the onset of this rapid exhumation, the sediment was quickly removed, causing fast cooling, but relatively slow rates of surface uplift. Syntectonic conglomerates were produced when faulting exposed resistant bedrock; this change in rock erodability led to enhanced surface uplift rates, but decreased exhumation rates. The creation of an orographic barrier after the range had attained sufficient elevation further decreased exhumation rates and increased surface uplift rates. Differences in the magnitude of exhumation at the two transects are related to both differences in the thickness of the sedimentary basin prior to exhumation and differences in the effective precipitation due to an orographic barrier in the foreland and hence differences in the magnitude of headward erosion.     

Estimating Pearson's Correlation Coefficient with Bootstrap Confidence Interval from Serially Dependent Time Series

Pearson's correlation coefficient, r_xy, is often used when measuring the influence of one time-dependent variable on another in bivariate climate time series. Thereby, positive serial dependence (persistence) and unknown data distributions impose a challenge for obtaining accurate confidence intervals for r_xy. This is met by the presented approach, employing the nonparametric stationary bootstrap with an average block length proportional to the maximum estimated persistence time of the data. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that this method can produce accurate (in terms of coverage) confidence intervals (of type bias-corrected and accelerated). However, since persistence reduces the number of independent observations, substantially more data points are required for achieving an accuracy comparable to a situation without persistence. The experiment further shows that neglecting serial dependence may lead to serious coverage errors. The presented method proves robust with respect to distributional shape (lognormal/normal) and time spacing (uneven/even). The method is used to confirm that a previous finding of a correlation between solar activity and Indian Ocean monsoon strength in early Holocene is valid. A further result is that the correlation between sunspot number and cosmogenic ¹⁰Be concentration vanishes after approximately 1870.     

On the origin of saline fluids in the KTB (continental deep drilling project of Germany)

Highly saline fluids were encountered during the German Continental Deep Drilling Project (KTB) from depths ranging between 2 and 3 km to about 9 km. The most reliable data were obtained from samples extracted during a long-term pumping test in the 4000-m deep KTB pilot hole. Some 460 m³ CaNaCl brines with about 68 g l⁻¹ total dissolved solids (TDS) and some 270 m³ associated gases, mainly N₂ and CH₄ were pumped to the surface from the main fracture system situated near the bottom of the pilot hole. Geochemical and isotopic data support the hydraulic tests which suggest the presence of an open and large fluid reservoir at depth. The pumped fluids from this main fracture system were released from a deep reservoir situated at more than 5500 m depth which is hydraulically connected with the 9101 m deep KTB main hole, drilled some 250 m to the northeast of the pilot hole.While Ca and Sr contents of the extracted brines may be the result of water-rock interaction, Cl is most likely of external origin. The Cl is hypothesized to derive from geotectonic processes rather than to descending infiltration of paleo-seawater (evaporitic brines). The sampled fluids have probably migrated from a deeper reservoir to their present position since the Cretaceous-Tertiary period due to tectonic activity. However, several isotopic studies have identified an admixture of descending paleowaters down to more than 4000 m depth. The high ³⁶ClCl ratio of the fluids sampled during the long-term pumping test point to a host rock highly enriched in UTh, unlike the sampled KTB country rocks. The fluid reservoir is believed to be in contact with the Falkenberg granite massif situated about 2 km to the E of the KTB holes capable of supplying sufficient neutron flux for considerable subsurface production of 36C1. The NaCl(K, SO₄) precursor fluids of the CaNaCI brines were produced in the course of extensive tectonic processes since the Late Caledonian within the Bohemian Massif.     

Tectono‐sedimentary evolution of the northern Iranian Plateau: insights from middle–late Miocene foreland‐basin deposits

Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle–late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long‐term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio‐temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle–late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement‐cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland‐basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7 Ma. By 10.7 Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement‐cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle‐flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.     

Relativistic astrometry

Concepts of relativistic astrometry — such as Weyl's stellar compass or the concept of flat-space plus forces — are discussed. To visualize effects from light deflection pictures showing the stellar sky as seen from the vicinity of a strongly gravitating source are presented.Communication presented at the International Conference on Astrometric Binaries, held on 13–15 June, 1984, at the Remeis-Sternwarte Bamberg, Germany, to commemorate the 200th anniversary of the birth of Friedrich Wilhelm Bessel (1784–1846).     

Dissolved petroleum residues and alkylbenzene photo-oxidation products in the upper arabian gulf

Lipophilic dissolved material was concentrated by in-situ liquid-solid adsorption on Amberlite XAD-2 resin from glass-fibre-filtered coastal seawater in the upper Arabian Gulf in the fall of 1986. 10% aqueous acetone was used for countercurrent desorption under reflux. In the concentrated eluate petroleum components were characterized and quantified by GC-MS as were ketonic photo-oxidation products of alkylbenzenes. Concentrations of the latter exceeded those of unaltered petroleum components by roughly a factor of 10.     

Preferred longitudes of sunspot groups and high-speed solar wind streams: Evidence for a ‘solar memory’

Correlation analysis of the mean longitude distribution of sunspot groups (taken from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results) and high-speed solar wind streams (inferred from the C9 index for geomagnetic disturbances) with the Bartels rotation period P = 27.0 days shows anti-correlation for individual cycles.In particular, the longitudes of post-maximum stable streams of cycle 18 and 19 are well anticorrelated with the preferred longitudes of sunspot groups during the maximum activity periods of these cycles. This is further analyzed using the daily Zürich sunspot number, R, between 1932 and 1980, which reveals a conspicuous similarity of cycle 18 and 19 as well as cycle 20 and 21.We conclude that there is a solar memory for preferred longitudes of activity extending at least over one, probably two cycles (i.e. one magnetic cycle of 22 years). We conjecture that this memory extends over longer intervals of time as a long-term feature of solar activity.