Artificial neural networks and geostatistical models for housing valuations in urban residential areas

Property valuation studies often use classical statistics techniques. Among these techniques, the Artificial Neural Networks are the most applied, overcoming the inflexibility and the linearity of the hedonic models. Other researchers have used Geostatistics techniques, specifically the Kriging Method, for interpreting spatial-temporal variability and to predict housing unit prices. The innovation of this study is to highlight how the Kriging Method can help to better understand the urban environment, improving the results obtained by classical statistics. This study presents two different methods that share the general objective of extracting information regarding a city’s housing from datasets. The procedures applied are Ordinary Kriging (Geostatistics) and Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm (Artificial Neural Networks). These methods were used to predict housing unit prices in the municipality of Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid). The implementation of both methods provides us with the urban characteristics of the study area and the most significant variables related to price. The main conclusion is that the Ordinary Kriging models and the Neural Networks models, applied to predicting housing unit prices are necessary methodologies to improve the information obtained in classical statistical techniques.

Abbreviations: ANN: Artificial Neural Networks; OK: ordinary Kriging; MLP: multi-layer perceptron     

A new risk assessment method for water quality degradation in harbour domains, using hydrodynamic models

This contribution presents a method for assessing the risk of water degradation in harbour domains. The method describes a normalized Index of Risk, ranging from 0 to 1, which determines the risk of water degradation due to a pollution event. A branch-decision scheme of decision-making theories was implemented in order to obtain this index. This method evaluates the cost of each decision as a function of the vulnerability, proximity and toxicity of the potential contaminant. A novel feature of this method is that the risk is defined by considering the physical behaviour of the harbour (i.e. water circulation patterns). Regions where water residence time is high are considered more vulnerable to pollutant releases. This method could be implemented from an operational perspective, in which case an oceanographic operational system could be used to obtain current forecasts which in turn would be used to forecast risk maps.     

Manmade Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma

Climate change and resultant coastal erosion and flooding have been the focus of many recent analyses. Often these studies overlook the effects of manmade modifications to the coastline which have reduced its resilience to storm events. In this investigation, we integrate previous reports, historical photo analysis, field work, and the application of numerical models to better understand the effects of Wilma, the most destructive hurricane to affect Cancun, Mexico. Huge waves (of significant height, >12 m), long mean wave periods (>12 s), devastating winds (>250 km/h), and powerful currents (>2 m/s) removed >7 million cubic meters of sand from the Cancun beach system, leaving 68% of the sub‐aerial beach as bedrock, and the rest considerably eroded. Numerical simulations show that the modifications to the barrier island imposed by tourist infrastructure have considerably increased the rigidity of the system, increasing the potential erosion of the beach under extreme conditions. If there were no structural barriers, a series of breaches could occur along the beach, allowing exchange of water and alleviating storm surge on other sections of the beach. If the effects caused by anthropogenic changes to Cancun are ignored, the analysis is inaccurate and misleading.     

Impacts of human activities on recharge in a multilayered semiarid aquifer (Campo de Cartagena,SE Spain)

The development of intense agriculture in semiarid areas modifies intensity and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge by summing irrigation return flow to limited rainfall infiltration. Environmental tracers provide key information, but their interpretation is complicated by more complex groundwater flow patterns. In multilayered aquifers, the real origin of the groundwater samples is hard to assess because of local mixing processes occurring inside long‐screened boreholes. We use environmental tracers (¹⁴C, ¹³C, ²H, ¹⁸O, ³H) to investigate the long‐term evolution of recharge in the five‐layer Campo de Cartagena aquifer in South‐Eastern Spain, in addition to high‐resolution temperature loggings to identify the depth of origin of groundwater. Despite the complex background, this methodology allowed a reliable interpretation of the geochemistry and provided a better understanding of the groundwater flow patterns. The tritium method did not give good quantitative results because of the high variability of the recharge signal but remained an excellent indicator of recent recharge. Nonetheless, both pre‐anthropization and post‐anthropization recharge regime could be identified and quantified by radiocarbon. Before the development of agriculture, recharge varied from 17 mm.year^‐1 at the mountain ranges to 6 mm.year^‐1 in the plain, whereas the mean annual rainfall is about 300 mm. In response to the increase of agricultural activity, recharge fluxes to the plain were amplified and nowadays reach up to 210 mm.year^‐1 in irrigated areas. These values are strengthened by global water budget and local unsaturated zone studies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Englacial and subglacial water flow at Skálafellsjökull,Iceland derived from ground penetrating radar,in situ Glacsweb probe and borehole water level measurements

We reconstruct englacial and subglacial drainage at Skálafellsjökull, Iceland, using ground penetrating radar (GPR) common offset surveys, borehole studies and Glacsweb probe data. We find that englacial water is not stored within the glacier (water content ~0–0.3%). Instead, the glacier is mostly impermeable and meltwater is able to pass quickly through the main body of the glacier via crevasses and moulins. Once at the glacier bed, water is stored within a thin (1 m) layer of debris‐rich basal ice (2% water content) and the till. The hydraulic potential mapped across the survey area indicates that when water pressures are high (most of the year), water flows parallel to the margin, and emerges 3 km down glacier at an outlet tongue. GPR data indicates that these flow pathways may have formed a series of braided channels. We show that this glacier has a very low water‐storage capacity, but an efficient englacial drainage network for transferring water to the glacier bed and, therefore, it has the potential to respond rapidly to changes in melt‐water inputs. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Isoseismal map of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake obtained from Spanish data

The Royal Academy of History (RAH) of Spain collected very detailed information about the effects on the Spanish territory of the Lisbon, 1755 earthquake, reporting such information within a year after the shock. The data provided by the RAH has been thoroughly analyzed, deriving an M S K intensity value for each one of the localities (more than 1000) included in the report, and an isoseismal map has been obtained from such values. Observations reported, such as tsunami, surface effects, duration of shaking and effects on the population are also discussed. Finally, a comparison is made of the data with the results of recent investigations on the tectonics of the region.     

Évolution thermique des séries sédimentaires de la Marge ardéchoise : étude pétrographique de la matière organique et des argilesThermal evolution of the sedimentary series of the Ardèche Margin: petrological studies of organic matter and clays

Two wells, Balazuc (BA1) and Morte-Mérie (MM1), located in a confined area (1200 m apart) and separated by the Uzer fault (a Liassic structure with a dip fault of 1300 m) were analysed using conventional methodologies and techniques (PRV, TAI, XRD, STEM) in order to compare the diagenetic evolution of clays and organic matter. The thermal convective process allows the circulation of hot fluids and the oxidation of organic matter. The conductive process allows the maturation of the organic matter, the expulsion of hydrocarbons and the deposit of pyrobitumes in the migration channels. To cite this article: L. Martinez et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1021–1028.     

3D seismic interpretation of slump complexes: examples from the continental margin of Israel

This paper uses three‐dimensional (3D) seismic data from the continental margin of Israel (Eastern Mediterranean) to describe a series of slump deposits within the Pliocene and Holocene succession. These slumps are linked to the dynamics of subsidence and deformation of the transform margin of the eastern Mediterranean. Repeated slope failure occurred during the post‐Messinian, when a clay‐dominated progradational succession was forming. This resulted in large‐scale slump deposits accumulating in the mid‐lower slope region of the basin at different stratigraphic levels. It is probable that the slumps were triggered by a combination of slope oversteepening, seismic activity and gas migration. The high spatial resolution provided by the 3D seismic data has been used to define a spectrum of internal and external geometries within slump deposits. Importantly, we recognise two main zones for many of the slumps on this margin: a depletion zone and an accumulation zone. The former is characterised by extension and translation, and the latter by complex imbricate thrusts and fold systems. Volume‐based seismic attribute analysis reveals transport directions within the slump deposits, which are predominately downslope, but with subtle variations particularly at the lateral margins. Basal shear surfaces are observed to ramp both up and down stratigraphy. Slump evolution occurs both by retrogressive upslope failure, and by downslope propagation (out‐of‐sequence) failure. Slump anatomy and the combination of factors responsible for slump failure and transport are relatively poorly understood, mainly because of the limited 3D of outcrop control; hence, this subsurface study is an example of how improved understanding of the mechanisms and products can be obtained using this 3D seismic methodology in unstable margin areas.