Tsunami Probability in the Caribbean Region

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.     

Estimation of the effect of protective piers on wind wave parameters in the Sevastopol Bay

An effectiveness of the storm wave attenuation by protective piers in the Sevastopol Bay of the Black Sea is studied on the basis of numerical simulation using the SWAN spectral model. Analyzed are the parameters of waves generated by winds of four main directions as well as by the southern cyclone during the storm on November 11, 2007. It is obtained that waves from the northwest part of the Black Sea penetrate most intensively into the Sevastopol Bay in case of western wind and, to a lesser degree, in case of northern and southern winds. A protective effect of the piers is observed in the west part of the bay only and the wave attenuation near the southern coast is more significant than near the northern one. The area of the southern coast directly behind the southern pier is completely protected from the storm waves and, as moving away from the pier, the danger of intensive wave effect on the coast is kept.     

The Central-Western Mediterranean: Anomalous igneous activity in an anomalous collisional tectonic setting

The central-western Mediterranean area is a key region for understanding the complex interaction between igneous activity and tectonics. In this review, the specific geochemical character of several ‘subduction-related’ Cenozoic igneous provinces are described with a view to identifying the processes responsible for the modifications of their sources. Different petrogenetic models are reviewed in the light of competing geological and geodynamic scenarios proposed in the literature.Plutonic rocks occur almost exclusively in the Eocene–Oligocene Periadriatic Province of the Alps while relatively minor plutonic bodies (mostly Miocene in age) crop out in N Morocco, S Spain and N Algeria. Igneous activity is otherwise confined to lava flows and dykes accompanied by relatively greater volumes of pyroclastic (often ignimbritic) products. Overall, the igneous activity spanned a wide temporal range, from middle Eocene (such as the Periadriatic Province) to the present (as in the Neapolitan of southern Italy). The magmatic products are mostly SiO₂-oversaturated, showing calcalkaline to high-K calcalcaline affinity, except in some areas (as in peninsular Italy) where potassic to ultrapotassic compositions prevail. The ultrapotassic magmas (which include leucitites to leucite-phonolites) are dominantly SiO₂-undersaturated, although rare, SiO₂-saturated (i.e., leucite-free lamproites) appear over much of this region, examples being in the Betics (southeast Spain), the northwest Alps, northeast Corsica (France), Tuscany (northwest Italy), southeast Tyrrhenian Sea (Cornacya Seamount) and possibly in the Tell region (northeast Algeria).Excepted for the Alpine case, subduction-related igneous activity is strictly linked to the formation of the Mediterranean Sea. This Sea, at least in its central and western sectors, is made up of several young (< 30 Ma) V-shaped back-arc basins plus several dispersed continental fragments, originally in crustal continuity with the European plate (Sardinia, Corsica, Balearic Islands, Kabylies, Calabria, Peloritani Mountains). The bulk of igneous activity in the central-western Mediterranean is believed to have tapped mantle ‘wedge’ regions, metasomatized by pressure-related dehydration of the subducting slabs. The presence of subduction-related igneous rocks with a wide range of chemical composition has been related to the interplay of several factors among which the pre-metasomatic composition of the mantle wedges (i.e., fertile vs. refractory mineralogy), the composition of the subducting plate (i.e., the type and amount of sediment cover and the alteration state of the crust), the variable thermo-baric conditions of magma formation, coupled with variable molar concentrations of CO₂ and H₂O in the fluid phase released by the subducting plates are the most important.Compared to classic collisional settings (e.g., Himalayas), the central-western Mediterranean area shows a range of unusual geological and magmatological features. These include: a) the rapid formation of extensional basins in an overall compressional setting related to Africa-Europe convergence; b) centrifugal wave of both compressive and extensional tectonics starting from a ‘pivotal’ region around the Gulf of Lyon; c) the development of concomitant Cenozoic subduction zones with different subduction and tectonic transport directions; d) subduction ‘inversion’ events (e.g., currently along the Maghrebian coast and in northern Sicily, previously at the southern paleo-European margin); e) a repeated temporal pattern whereby subduction-related magmatic activity gives way to magmas of intraplate geochemical type; f) the late-stage appearance of magmas with collision-related ‘exotic’ (potassic to ultrapotassic) compositions, generally absent from simple subduction settings; g) the relative scarcity of typical calcalkaline magmas along the Italian peninsula; h) the absence of igneous activity where it might well be expected (e.g., above the hanging-wall of the Late Cretaceous–Eocene Adria–Europe subduction system in the Alps); i) voluminous production of subduction-related magmas coeval with extensional tectonic régimes (e.g., during Oligo-Miocene Sardinian Trough formation).To summarize, these salient central-western Mediterranean features, characterizing a late-stage of the classic ‘Wilson Cycle’ offer a ‘template’ for interpreting magmatic compositions in analogous settings elsewhere.     

Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Broad search for unstable resonant orbits in the planar circular restricted three-body problem

Unstable resonant orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem have increasingly been used for trajectory design using optimization and invariant manifold techniques. In this study, several methods for computing these unstable resonant orbits are explored including grid searches, flyby maps, and continuation. Families of orbits are computed focusing on orbits with multiple loops near the secondary in the Jupiter–Europa system, and their characteristics are explored. Different parameters such as period and stability are examined for each set of resonant orbits, and the continuation of several specific orbits is explored in more detail.     

Neutron Stars with a Quark Core. II. Basic Integral and Structural Parameters

A broad sample of computed realistic equations of state of superdense matter with a quark phase transition is used to construct a series of models of neutron stars with a strange quark core. The integral characteristics of the stellar configurations are obtained: gravitational mass, rest mass, radius, relativistic moment of inertia, and red shift from the star's surface, as well as the mass and radius of the quark core within the allowable range of values for the central pressure. The parameters of some of the characteristic configurations of the calculated series are also given and these are studied in detail. It is found that a new additional region of stability for neutron stars with strange quark cores may exist for some models of the equation of state.     

Multi-decadal synthesis of benthic–pelagic coupling in the western arctic: Role of cross-shelf advective processes

Using geographic information systems (GIS) software and geostatistical techniques, we utilized three decades of water-column chlorophyll a data to examine the relative importance of autochthonous versus allochthonous sources of reduced carbon to benthic communities that occur from the northern Bering to the eastern Beaufort Sea shelf. Spatial trend analyses revealed areas of high benthic biomass (>300 g m⁻²) and chlorophyll (>150 mg m⁻²) on both the southern and northern Chukchi shelf; both areas are known as depositional centers for reduced organic matter that originates on the Bering Sea shelf and is advected northward in Anadyr and Bering shelf water masses. We found a significant correlation between biomass and chlorophyll a in the Chukchi Sea, reflective of the strong benthic–pelagic coupling in a system that is utilized heavily by benthic-feeding marine mammals. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between biomass and chlorophyll in the Beaufort Sea, which by comparison, is considerably less productive (biomass and chlorophyll, <75 g m⁻² and <50 mg m⁻², respectively). One notable exception is an area of relatively high biomass (50–100 g m⁻²) and chlorophyll (80 mg m⁻²) near Barter Island in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Compared to other adjacent areas in the Beaufort Sea, the chlorophyll values in the vicinity of Barter Island were considerably higher and likely reflect a long-hypothesized upwelling in that area and close coupling between the benthos and autochthonous production. In the Bering Sea, a drop in benthic biomass in 1994 compared with previous measurements (1974–1993) may support earlier observations that document a decline in biomass that began between the 1980s and 1990s in the Chirikov Basin and south of St. Lawrence Island. The results of this study indicate that the benthos is an excellent long-term indicator of both local and physical advective processes. In addition, this work provides further evidence that secondary production on arctic shelves can be significantly augmented by reduced carbon advected from highly productive adjacent shelves.     

Water Quality Estimation Based on the Structural Analysis of Diatomic Complexes

Two types of plots characterizing the undisturbed structure of the biotopic spectrum of diatom algae are recognized. The first of them has a hyperbolic form and the second is a sigmoid curve (normal distribution). It was shown that, under adverse external impact, both types of plots change their shape and the extent of their distortion reflects the general level of anthropogenic load on this water body or its part. The proposed method of graphical comparison was developed for lakes of Kola Peninsula. Later it was successfully used in the biomonitoring of watercourses of the Volga–Akhtuba interfluve area (Astrakhan Province) and in paleoenvironmental reconstruction for Galichskoe Lake (Kostroma Province).     

Allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter in surface waters in Karelia

A relationship between indirect chemical indices of organic matter content of surface waters and light absorption in the visible and ultraviolet ranges is discussed. The allochthonous and autochthonous types of organic matter are found to essentially differ in the rate of light absorption. Techniques are proposed for the calculation of the concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter by the integral rate of light consumption in the visible region and the bichromate oxidability of water, as well as by three indirect indices: chemical oxygen demand, permanganate oxidability, and water color index. The mean concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter in large lakes (Ladoga, Onega, and Baikal) and in rivers and smaller water bodies in Karelia (>300 water objects) are analyzed. Allochthonous organic matter was found to predominate in most surface waters of Karelia (>80%), while allochthonous organic matter predominates only in lakes with a small specific catchment area (supposedly, <5) and in highly eutrophic lakes.