Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects

Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB,Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seismic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al.(1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker(2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.     

Secondary circulation induced by flow curvature and Coriolis effects around headlands and islands

Previous studies have shown that flow curvature in river bends generates a secondary circulation in the plane normal to the mean flow direction. A similar circulation pattern is shown to exist in oceanic situations when flows are subject to curvature, mainly due to interaction with topographic features. However, it is shown that, due to differences between oceanic conditions and river bends, theory and prediction methods based on the assumptions for river bends are invalid for oceanic flows. Via scaling arguments based on the equations of motion, that include both the effects of flow curvature and the Coriolis force, parameters that govern the different flow regimes are identified. The maximum strength of the secondary flow is derived for each flow regime and is verified using a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model applied to an idealized island. It is also shown that upwelling, due to the generation of secondary flow, occurs off the tips of the headland or island, and its influence can extend far downstream.Responsible Editor: Richard Signell     

Inspecting the Reliability of Geochemical Facies Identified for the Waterworks' Capture Zone in Germany

Little research attention has been given to validating clusters obtained from the groundwater geochemistry of the waterworks' capture zone with a prevailing lake-groundwater exchange. To address this knowledge gap, we proposed a new scheme whereby Gaussian finite mixture modeling (GFMM) and Spike-and-Slab Bayesian (SSB) algorithms were utilized to cluster the groundwater geochemistry while quantifying the probability of the resulting cluster membership against each other. We applied GFMM and SSB to 13 geochemical parameters collected during different sampling periods at 13 observation points across the Barnim Highlands plateau located in the northeast of Berlin, Germany; this included 10 observation wells, two lakes, and a gallery of drinking production wells. The cluster analysis of GFMM yielded nine clusters, either with a probability ≥0.8, while the SSB produced three hierarchical clusters with a probability of cluster membership varying from <0.2 to >0.8. The findings demonstrated that the clustering results of GFMM were in good agreement with the classification as per the principal component analysis and Piper diagram. By superimposing the parameter clustering onto the observation clustering, we could identify discrepancies that exist among the parameters of a certain cluster. This enables the identification of different factors that may control the geochemistry of a certain cluster, although parameters of that cluster share a strong similarity. The GFMM results have shown that from 2002, there has been active groundwater inflow from the lakes towards the capture zone. This means that it is necessary to adopt appropriate measures to reverse the inflow towards the lakes.     

Seismic microzonation for Penang using geospatial contour mapping

Shear wave velocity (V _s) and the fundamental site period of the subsurface condition are the primary parameters that affect seismic soil amplification in particular sites. Within the topmost layer of the soil, which measures 30 m, the average shear wave velocity V _s30 is commonly used to build codes for site classification for the design of earthquake-resistant structures and to conduct microzonation studies. In this study, the development of a microzonation map for V _s30 distribution, National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program V _s30 site classification, and a fundamental site period for Penang are presented. The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) test was conducted for more than 50 sites with available borehole data to develop the microzonation maps. The ten selected V _s profiles measured by MASW show a good correlation with the data obtained using empirical correlations in a previous study. The highest V _s values were identified at the northeastern and southeastern parts of Penang Island, corresponding to the shallow bedrock and the outcrop zone. Conversely, the lowest V _s values were found in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the Penang mainland owing to the thick layer of soft clay and silt deposits. The site period map shows the variation in site periods, with the highest value of 1.03 s at the western part of the Penang mainland and the lowest value of 0.02 s at the eastern part of the Penang Island. The microzonation maps developed in this study are vital to studies on seismic hazard and earthquake mitigation programs in Malaysia.     

Using combined AHP–genetic algorithm in artificial groundwater recharge site selection of Gareh Bygone Plain,Iran

Flood spreading is one of the suitable strategies to control and benefit from floods which in turn improve the groundwater recharge, makes soil more fertile, and increases nutrients in soil. It is also a method for reusing sediment, which is usually wasted. Thus, selection of suitable areas for flood spreading and directing the flood water into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision analysis and genetic algorithm (GA) of artificial intelligence approaches, this paper addresses the problem of finding the most suitable area location for flood spreading operation in the Gareh Bygone Plain of Iran. To this end, the nine effective geodata layers including slope, alluvium thickness, geology, morphology, electrical conductivity, land use, drainage density, aquifer transmissivity, and elevation were prepared in geographic information system environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for flood spreading while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the proposed methodology, the land suitability map for flood spreading was produced. The AHP and GA were used for ranking all the alternatives and weighting the criteria involved, respectively. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Qft ₂ and Qsf geologic units and in morphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 2 %. Finally, further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated AHP–GA method in locating most suitable flood spreading areas have been provided by such significant spatial coincidence between the produced map and the control areas located near Kowsar research station, where the earlier flood spreading projects were successfully performed.     

Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

The application of numerical weather prediction(NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous(yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008–16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation.The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation,NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations.Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.