P-wave attenuation anisotropy in TI media and its application in fracture parameters inversion

The existence of aligned fractures in fluid-saturated rocks leads to obvious attenuation anisotropy and velocity anisotropy. Attenuation anisotropy analysis can be applied to estimate fracture density and scale, which provide important information for reservoir identification. This paper derives P-wave attenuation anisotropy in the ATI media where the symmetry axis is in the arbitrary direction theoretically and modifies the spectral ratio method to measure attenuation anisotropy in the ATI media, thus avoiding a large measurement error when applied to wide azimuth or full azimuth data. Fracture dip and azimuth can be estimated through attenuation anisotropy analysis. For small-scale fractures, fracture scale and fracture density can be determined with enhanced convergence if velocity and attenuation information are both used. We also apply the modified spectralratio method to microseismic field data from an oilfield in East China and extract the fracture dip through attenuation anisotropy analysis. The result agrees with the microseismic monitoring.     

Maritime network dynamics before and after international events

Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system (AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.     

Zones of required investigation for earthquake-related hazards in Jerusalem

Jerusalem was hit by earthquakes several times in its history, in the course of which none of the holy sites of the three main faiths of the western world escaped damage. Intensities of the last M_L 6.2, July 11, 1927 Dead Sea earthquake, reached MSK VIII in the Old City of Jerusalem and the surrounding villages. As future strong earthquakes are inevitable, the need for the evaluation of earthquake-related hazards is obvious. Only general geotechnical properties of the section exposed in the mountainous area of Jerusalem are available; therefore, the hazard assessment was conducted from a geological perspective. The hazards identified in this study are: (1) amplification of seismic acceleration due to soft rock and soil conditions; (2) amplification due to mountainous topography; (3) dynamic instability of natural slopes; and (4) potential failure of slopes that have undergone engineering development and were weakened due to damaging, steepening, overloading, and wetting beyond their natural state. We formulated relative grades of vulnerability for each of the hazards and delineated the zones that require further specific investigation. For practical use we constructed a summary map that combines the different hazard categories. Looking at the summary map, the ground at the central N–S axis zone across Jerusalem is the least vulnerable. The bedrock there is mostly hard carbonate, the topography is mild, and thus only the alluvial cover, if thicker than 3 m, should be considered sensitive. Yet although the natural hazard in this area is limited, the risk should not be underrated. Much of the city lies there, including buildings constructed before antiseismic codes were regulated, and traditional engineering practice should not be taken for granted as antiseismic proof either. Eastwards, the shear wave velocity (Vs) contrast between the hard and soft rocks as well as the notable topography in places, impose the potential for amplification. Slopes, either naturally or artificially cutting into the soft chalk, may expose the area to dynamic instability; thus, the ongoing extensive development of the city in this direction should certainly take into account all of this. West of the central axis, the potential of failure of both steep natural and urbanized slopes appears. Being a plausible direction for future urban expansion, these areas specifically call for careful environmental and engineering planning. For engineering purposes, however, a specific site investigation is still necessary. Nevertheless, the summary map established in this study sets up for Jerusalem, for the first time, a practical tool for environmental and municipal planning, emergency response planning, and civil protection.     

On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.     

Laboratory Investigation of the Influence of Geotextile on the Stress–Strain and Volumetric Change Behavior of Sand

This paper presents the results of triaxial tests conducted for the investigation of the influence of geotextile on both the stress–strain and volumetric change behavior of reinforced sands. Tests were carried out on loose sand. The experimental program includes drained compression tests on samples reinforced with different values of both geotextile layers (1 ≤ Ng ≤ 3) and confining pressure (\(\upsigma_{\text{c}}^{\prime }\)) varying from 50 to 200 kPa. Tests show that the contribution of geotextile is negligible until an axial strain threshold that range between 2.5% for a confining pressure of 50 kPa to lower than 1% for 100 and 200 kPa confining pressure. At higher values of ε_a, geotextile induces a quasi-linear increase in the stress deviator (q) and volume contraction in the reinforced sand. Tests show a negligible influence of the number of geotextile layers (Ng) on the contribution of geotextile to both stress–strain and volumetric change, when normalized with Ng. Tests also show that the contribution of geotextile to the stress–strain mobilization augments with the increase in the confining pressure, while its contribution to the volume contraction decreases with the increase in the confining pressure. The reinforced soil becomes contracting in the case of 2 and 3 geotextile layers.     

A grid-based tropospheric product for China using a GNSS network

Tropospheric delay accounts for one source of error in global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To better characterize the tropospheric delays in the temporal and spatial domain and facilitate the safety-critical use of GNSS across China, a method is proposed to generate a grid-based tropospheric product (GTP) using the GNSS network with an empirical tropospheric model, known as IGGtrop. The prototype system generates the GTPs in post-processing and real-time modes and is based on the undifferenced and uncombined precise point positioning (UU-PPP) technique. GTPs are constructed for a grid form (\(2.0{^{\circ }}\times 2.5{^{\circ }}\) latitude–longitude) over China with a time resolution of 5 min. The real-time GTP messages are encoded in a self-defined RTCM3 format and broadcast to users using NTRIP (networked transport of RTCM via internet protocol), which enables efficient and safe transmission to real-time users. Our approach for GTP generation consists of three sequential steps. In the first step, GNSS-derived zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs) for a network of GNSS stations are estimated using UU-PPP. In the second step, vertical adjustments for the GNSS-derived ZTDs are applied to address the height differences between the GNSS stations and grid points. The ZTD height corrections are provided by the IGGtrop model. Finally, an inverse distance weighting method is used to interpolate the GNSS-derived ZTDs from the surrounding GNSS stations to the location of the grid point. A total of 210 global positioning system (GPS) stations from the crustal movement observation network of China are used to generate the GTPs in both post-processing and real-time modes. The accuracies of the GTPs are assessed against with ERA-Interim-derived ZTDs and the GPS-derived ZTDs at 12 test GPS stations, respectively. The results show that the post-processing and real-time GTPs can provide the ZTDs with accuracies of 1.4 and 1.8 cm, respectively. We also apply the GTPs in real-time kinematic GPS PPP, and the results show that the convergence time of the PPP solutions is shortened. These results confirm that the GTPs can act as an efficient information source to augment GNSS positioning over China.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Seismic clusters and their characteristics at the Arabian Sea Triple Junction: Supportive evidences for plate margin deformations

The plate margin features defining the Arabian Sea Triple Junction (ASTJ) are: the Aden Ridge (AR), Sheba Ridge (SR) with their intervening Alula-Fartak Transform (AFT), Carlsberg Ridge (CR) and Owen Fracture Zone (OFZ). Exact nature of ASTJ is presently debated: whether it is RRF (ridge-ridge-fault) or RRR (ridge-ridge-ridge) type. A revised seismicity map for ASTJ is given here using data for a period little more than a century. “Point density spatial statistical criterion” is applied to short-listed 742 earthquakes (mb ≥ 4.3), 10 numbers of spatio-temporal seismic clusters are identified for ASTJ and its arms. Relocated hypocentres help better constraining the cluster identification wherever such data exist. Seismic clusters actually diagnose the most intense zones of strain accumulation due to far field as well as the local stress operating at ASTJ. An earthquake swarm emanating from a prominent seismic cluster below SR provides an opportunity to investigate the pore pressure diffusion process (due to the active source) by means of “r-t plot”. Stress and faulting pattern in the active zones are deduced from 43 CMT solutions. While normal or lateral faulting is characteristic for these arms, an anomalous thrust earthquake occurs in the triangular ‘Wheatley Deep’ deformation zone proximal to ASTJ. The latter appears to have formed due to a shift of the deformational front from OFZ towards a transform that offsets SR. Though ASTJ is still in the process of evolution, available data favour that this RRF triple junction may eventually be converted to a more stable RRR type.     

Earthquake-related gravity field changes at Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network during 1987–1998

Based on the 46 batch repeated observations of Beijing-Tangshan gravimetric network, the gravity field changes of the region during 1987–1998 have been determined. A comparison was made between the differences of these gravity field changes and the 8 reasonably large earthquake events (M_b≥ 4.0) in the region, showing the existence of the earthquake-related gravity field changes. It appears that there is usually a detectable change of a nearby gravity field well before an earthquake, followed by an opposite change afterwards.