Detectability and reliability analysis of the local seismic network in Pakistan

The detectability and reliability analysis for the local seismic network is performed employing by Bungum and Husebye technique.The events were relocated using standard computer codes for hypocentral locations.The de-tectability levels are estimated from the twenty-five years of recorded data in terms of 50%,90%and 100% cumu-lative detectability threshokls,which were derived from frequency-magnitude distribution.From this analysis the 100%level of detectability of the network is ML=1.7 for events which occur within the network.The accuracy in hypocentral solutions of the network is investigated by considering the fixed real hypocenter within the network.The epicentral errors are found to be less than 4km then the events occur within the network.Finally.the prob-lems faced during continuous operation of the local network,which effects its detectability,are discussed.     

Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime.Due to poor management and policy implications,blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses.Thus,it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting.In this study,catch and effort data,1996-2009,of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp.Maximum,minimum and average capture production of P.stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons(mt)(1997),9 438 mt(2009) and 11 667 mt/a.Two stock assessment tools viz.CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a stock production model incorporating covariates) were used to compute MSY(maximum sustainable yield) of this organism.In CEDA,three surplus production models,Fox,Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson,along with three error assumptions,log,log normal and gamma,were used.For initial proportion(IP) 0.8,the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 mt(CV=0.204,R~2=0.709) and 7 384 mt(CV=0.149,R~2=0.72) for log and log normal error assumption respectively.Here,gamma error produced minimization failure.Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log,log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e.7 083 mt,8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly.The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R~2(0.712) values.ASPIC computed MSY,CV,R~2,F_(MSY)and B_(MSY) parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 mt,0.142,0.872,0.111 and 65 280,while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt,0.148,0.868,0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly.Results obtained have shown that P.stylifera has been overexploited.Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.     

Transmission of light by slit designed for astronomical spectrograph

The paper discusses an investigation of linear polarization produced by the transmission of light through an astronomical spectrograph slit. An experimental apparatus was designed and set up to carry out this work. The parallel beam of plane polarized light was rotated in the measuring system, by optically active of half-wave plate. The intensity of normally incident of polarized light of wavelength 0.436 μm transmitted by various slit was measured as a function of slit width. The results indicate:

1. That the degree of polarization increased as thedepth of the narrow slit was increased.
2. That the degree of polarization increased as thewidth of the narrow slit was decreased.
3. That when the width of slit was widened the degree of polarization tended to approach a constant value asymptotically.
4. That the theoretical calculation of Slater (1942) predicts the measured experimental values more accurately than Thiessen (1947) and Jones and Richards (1954).

It is shown that the existence and order of magnitude of all these effects may be predicted from the propagation losses of the electromagnetic theory of light in metallic wave guide. The paper brings out the salient points related to the degree of polarization of light by a dielectric slit of finite depth. The polarization effects from one such slit have been investigated and the results were compared with those for metallic slits.     

巴基斯坦地方地震台网的检测能力和可靠性分析

利用Bungum和Husebye的方法，分析了地方地震台网的检测能力和可靠性．用标准的计算机定位程序重新测定了地震位置．根据25年的地震记录，分别由震级-频度关系导出的50%、90%和100%的累积检测率估计了检测水平．对台网内地震，相应于100%检测率的震级下限为ＭＬ＝1.7．用台网内固定的实际震源，研究了台网对震源位置的测定精度．对网内地震，震中测定误差小于4 km．最后讨论了台网连续工作时可能会遇到的影响检测能力的一些问题．      

Germination and seedling growth of corn (Zea mays l.) under varying levels of copper and zinc

The heavy metal tolerance in corn (Zea mays L.) var. ‘Neelum’ was assessed at germination and seedling growth after having subjected it to different concentrations of CuSO₄ and ZnSO₄. Germination was not affected by any of the metal tested, whereas initial growth was strongly inhibited by increasing concentrations of ZnSO₄. Seedlings developed toxicity symptoms in the presence of both metals but more chlorotic and necrotic regions were observed at varying levels of ZnSO₄ than CuSO₄. The metal accumulation was concentration dependent. Z. mays seedlings accumulated more copper in roots but greater contents of zinc in their shoots. On the basis of results presented here, it can be concluded that the cultivar of the species tested has shown a marked sensitivity to the presence of small amounts of metals present in the growth medium. The data support the assumption that metal sensitivity is probably due to strong tendency of the species to accumulate them. This justifies that the corn variety ‘Neelum’ is not suitable for the cultivation under situations where water and soil suffer from occasional and/ or transitory metal pollution.     

The off-site implications of deforestation on sedimentation rates and pollution in Abkenar open water (Anzali Lagoon,Caspian Sea) using radionuclide techniques and sediment quality indices

Abkenar open water(AOW)has a 35 km²distribution and is the largest part of the Anzali Lagoon in the southern coastal zone of the Caspian Sea.The effects of deforestation in the upstream basin of the AOW were assessed by measuring the rate of sedimentation,sediment contamination,and ecological risk for aquatic life and end-users using radioisotopes Cesium-137 and Lead-210.The chronology of the AOW sediment column was studied using the Constant Rate of Supply model.Correlations between environmental changes and the sedimentary regime of the study area highlight the contribution of the AOW authorized international and local wood harvesting companies pre-and-post 1950 in the catchment in terms of the rate of sediment supply and the influx of toxic metals.Historical evidence shows that two specific layers formed during World Wars I and II with the mean rates of 0.185±0.04(±STD)and 0.32±0.02 kg/(m²·y),respectively.The highest influx of alkali elements and toxic metals(nickel,cadmium,lead,zinc,and copper)into the basin occurred in 1945.Two layers of gray mud(16-50 cm)and organic-rich dark loss mud(0-16 cm)correlated well with the programmed wood harvesting projects.These layers accumulated from 1953 to 2000 with a mean rate of 0.6±0.2 and 2±0.7 kg/(m²·y).Thus,aquatic life and end-users have been exposed to moderate to extremely high levels of toxic metals and a moderate level of contamination since the 1950s.     

Changing Land Use a Threat to Surface Water Quality: a Vulnerability Assessment Approach in Zanjanroud Watershed,Central Iran

Maintaining the quality of surface water resources as one of the most vital water supplies has always been at the center of global concerns. A set of manifest and latent factors have yet been identified by researchers worldwide that are subject to affect the quality of surface water. Among which, the effect of land use change, due to a spatial and temporal complexity, is often not easily verifiable. The present study attempts to offer an index-based model to quantify vulnerability of surface water resources in a semi arid basin in central Iran against land use changes. For this, water quality data including Na, K, Mg, Ca, Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), total anions (Sum. A), SO₄, Cl, HCO₃, EC, TDS, and pH were collected from hydrometric stations over a period of 26 years (1987?2013). In order to detect land use changes, the land use maps of the years 1987, 1998, 2002, 2009, and 2013 were prepared from TM satellite images using supervised classification method. At next step, changing patterns of different land uses were traced by Shanon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) as a metric of patch diversity indicating diversity and heterogeneity of a landscape over time. Relationship between the SHDI values and water quality indicators revealed the impact of land use changes on quality of surface water resources. Statistical analysis confirmed a significant relationship between nine water quality factors and water discharge in the basin during the study period. From 1998 to 2009, the greatest changes were visible in the total anions, Ca, SO₄, and HCO₃. These parameters along with salinity were increasing in almost all sub-basins. According to the results, conversion of poor rangelands to rain fed agriculture fields is the most apparent land use change occurred in the study area over the study period. In 1987, SHDI as an indicator of the diversity and changes in the basin, showed a significant relationship with good rangelands (R² =–0.835). This indicates that fragmentation of the entire watershed area was initiated in 1987, which reached its peak in 2013. Generally speaking, urbanization, poor rangeland, and irrigated agriculture were recognized as three influential land uses adversely affect the water quality in the study area.     

The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

Analytical Solutions for Water Flow and Solute Transport in the Unsaturated Zone

Analytical solutions for the water flow and solute transport equations in the unsaturated zone are presented. We use the Broadbridge and White nonlinear model to solve the Richards’ equation for vertical flow under a constant infiltration rate. Then we extend the water flow solution and develop an exact parametric solution for the advection-dispersion equation. The method of characteristics is adopted to determine the location of a solute front in the unsaturated zone. The dispersion component is incorporated into the final solution using a singular perturbation method. The formulation of the analytical solutions is simple, and a complete solution is generated without resorting to computationally demanding numerical schemes. Indeed, the simple analytical solutions can be used as tools to verify the accuracy of numerical models of water flow and solute transport. Comparison with a finite-element numerical solution indicates that a good match for the predicted water content is achieved when the mesh grid is one-fourth the capillary length scale of the porous medium. However, when numerically solving the solute transport equation at this level of discretization, numerical dispersion and spatial oscillations were significant.