Thermal Climate Variations and Potential Modification of the Cropping Pattern in Bangladesh

Summary Changes in the thermal climate due to inter-annual climatic variability can potentially modify existing cropping pattern by forcing farmers to rearrange transplanting and harvesting dates. In the present study, a crop climate model, the YIELD, has been applied to 12 meteorological stations located in major rice growing regions in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of thermal climate variations on the transplanting and harvesting dates of boro rice and the resultant potential changes in cropping pattern and spatial shift. The abnormal thermal climate scenarios have been created by synthetically perturbing mean air temperatures (T_air) up to −5 °C to +5 °C with an interval of 1 °C for each of these stations. Historical meteorological records of air temperature in Bangladesh have been used to prepare these scenarios. The study finds that under abnormally cool conditions transplanting dates will be pushed well into February to avoid plant injury and harvesting dates will be moved into the monsoon. The growing seasons will be longer under cooler than normal thermal conditions. Under abnormally warm conditions harvesting dates will be established well into March and will cause reduction of yield due to a shorter growing season. These conditions will also cause spatial shift in crop potential and changes in the cropping pattern. Due to a longer boro rice growing season farmers will lose a significant amount of cropping land which is usually used for low and deep water rice cultivation. New crops will need to be introduced during the beginning of a year to overcome the loss of production under abnormally cool conditions. Wheat and potato can be good options for the farmers for such conditions. New aus rice variety needs to be introduced after the boro harvesting under warmer than the normal conditions to overcome the loss of yield due to a shorter growing season. Received September 16, 1996 Revised September 8, 1997     

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land–atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant sensitivity responses are found over the karst regions, including pronounced warming and cooling effects on the near-surface atmosphere from barren and forested land cover, respectively; (3) the barren ground in the karst regions provides conditions favourable for convective development under certain conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that karst and non-karst landscapes should be distinguished, and their physical processes should be considered for future model development.     

Quality control and homogenization of daily meteorological data in the trans-boundary region of the Jhelum River basin

Many studies such as climate variability, climate change, trend analysis, hydrological designs, agriculture decision-making etc. require long-term homogeneous datasets. Since homogeneous climate data is not available for climate analysis in Pakistan and India, the present study emphases on an extensive quality control and homogenization of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. A combination of different quality control methods and relative homogeneity tests were applied to achieve the objective of the study. To check the improvement after homogenization, correlation coefficients between the test and reference series calculated before and after the homogenization process were compared with each other. It was found that about 0.59%, 0.78% and 0.023% of the total data values are detected as outliers in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data, respectively. About 32% of maximum temperature, 50% of minimum temperature and 7% of precipitation time series were inhomogeneous, in the Jhelum River basin. After the quality control and homogenization, 1% to 11% improvement was observed in the infected climate variables. This study concludes that precipitation daily time series are fairly homogeneous, except two stations (Naran and Gulmarg), and of a good quality. However, maximum and minimum temperature datasets require an extensive quality control and homogeneity check before using them into climate analysis in the Jhelum River basin.     

Spatial and temporal variations of aridity indices in Iraq

In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.     

Chromium uptake by giant reed under rhizobacterial inhibition

The role of rhizospheric microbes of giant reed (Arundo donax L.) in Cr uptake from hydroponic culture was investigated. The control group was exposed to Cr in range of 25–100 mg L^?1 containing a control itself (with no metal addition). The experimental group received same Cr treatments, but in addition was exposed to antibiotic treatment in order to inhibit rhizospheric bacteria. The range of Cr accumulated in the roots was 3–7.65 mg L^?1; in stem it ranged 2.15–42.4 mg kg^?1; while in leaves, the range of Cr content was 13.7–15 mg kg^?1. Overall, Cr uptake in A. donax (without rhizobacterial inhibition) was root < leaf < stem. However, the amount of Cr uptake in plants with rhizobacterial inhibition was significantly less (~4.6-folds in 100 mg L^?1 Cr treatment) than those without such inhibition clearly highlighting that rhizobacterial inhibition decreased the Cr uptake. The experimental results clearly demonstrated that the inhibition of the rhizobacterial populations had great influence on the Cr uptake. However, Cr uptake could not be completely inhibited as some metal uptake was observed after the rhizobacterial inhibition although it was significantly less than the Cr uptake of plants without such inhibition.     

Bela oceanic lithosphere assemblage and its relation to the Réunion hotspot

The Bela ophiolite of Pakistan contains a complete ophiolite-accretionary wedge-trench sequence emplaced onto the Indian continental margin during the northward drift of India-Seychelles over the active Réunion hotspot. A structurally higher ophiolite overlies an accretionary prism, which is thrust over a foreland basin. Shear-sense determinations in peridotite mylonites in the ophiolite footwall and imbrication structures in the underlying accretionary wedge indicate an ESE emplacement. Sedimentary rocks in the accretionary wedge indicate Aptian-Albian pillow lavas, initially deep water conditions, and increasing influence from the continent until the Maastrichtian. The ophiolite emplacement was predated and accompanied by Fe-tholeiitic and alkaline magmatism related to the Réunion hotspot and continuous incorporation of trench sediments into the accretionary wedge. ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar dating shows that the ophiolite formed around 70 Ma. Intraoceanic subduction initiated between 70 and 65 Ma, obduction onto the Indian passive margin occurred during the formation of the Deccan traps at ≈ 66 Ma, and final thrusting onto the continental margin ended in the early Eocene (≈ 50 Ma). The ophiolite emplacement occurred during the counterclockwise separation of Madagascar and India-Seychelles which caused shortening and consumption of oceanic lithosphere between the African-Arabian and the Indian-Seychelles plates.     

Seismic triggering of atmospheric variables prior to the major earthquakes in the Middle East within a 12-year time-period of 2002–2013

Several studies have reported the increased values of surface-latent heat flux (SLHF) and rainfall events prior to the earthquakes as the seismic precursors. In order to investigate the variation of two mentioned atmospheric variables, we analyzed 39 major earthquakes in the Middle East based on the time series of NASA remote sensing data. On this basis, we observed that accumulated rainfall and SLHF of about 29 earthquakes were higher than 10 mm and 50 W/m², respectively (~75 %), over 3–23 days prior to the main shock of major earthquakes. We believed that the records of atmospheric variables are the consequence of a seismic-triggered chain including of air ionization, surface-latent heat exhalation, water vapor condensation and subordinate rainfall as the atmospheric responses to lithospheric motions. This seismic triggering in the Middle East has averagely caused to accumulated rainfall of ~35 mm and maximum SLHF of ~115 W/m² over the 3–23 days prior to 39 major earthquakes. To investigate of spatial correlation between earthquakes and atmospheric variations, we clustered 39 major earthquakes in eight seismological regions. Then, we estimated the moderate and strong correlation (R ²) between preceding times of earthquakes with magnitude of major earthquakes and their hypocenter depth equal to 0.48 and 0.68, respectively.