Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India

The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R ² values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R ² values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91–3.15 °C, 0.93–2.63 °C, and 6–12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69–1.92 °C, 0.56–1.63 °C, and 8–14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied.     

Obliquely propagating solitary wave structures in nonextensive magneto-rotating plasmas

The propagation of the nonlinear electrostatic ion acoustic solitary wave structures in two component, non relativistic, homogenous, magneto rotating plasma are studied. The inertialess electrons are assumed to follow nonextensive q velocity distribution. Small amplitude reductive perturbation technique is applied to derive Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation and its analytical solution is presented. The effects of variation of different plasma parameters on propagation characteristics of solitary wave structure in the presence of the Coriolis force are discussed. It is observed that nonextensive parameter q modifies the structure of solitary wave structures in rotating plasmas.     

Relationship between soil moisture of near surface and multiple depths of the root zone under heterogeneous land uses and varying hydroclimatic conditions

This paper presents an assessment of the relationship between near-surface soil moisture (SM) and SM at other depths in the root zone under three different land uses: irrigated corn, rainfed corn and grass. This research addresses the question whether or not near-surface SM can be used reliably to predict plant available root zone SM and SM at other depths. For this study, a realistic soil-water energy balance process model is applied to three locations in Nebraska representing an east-to-west hydroclimatic gradient in the Great Plains. The applications were completed from 1982 through to 1999 at a daily time scale. The simulated SM climatologies are developed for the root zone as a whole and for the five layers of the soil profile to a depth of 1·2 m. Over all, the relationship between near-surface SM (0–2·5 cm) and plant available root zone SM is not strong. This applies to all land uses and for all locations. For example, r estimates range from 0·02 to 0·33 for this relationship. Results for near-surface SM and SM of several depths suggest improvement in r estimates. For example, these estimates range from − 0·19 to 0·69 for all land uses and locations. It was clear that r estimates are the highest (0·49–0·69) between near-surface and the second layer (2·5–30·5 cm) of the root zone. The strength of this type of relationship rapidly declines for deeper depths. Cross-correlation estimates also suggest that at various time-lags the strength of the relationship between near-surface SM and plant available SM is not strong. The strength of the relationship between SM modulation of the near surface and second layer over various time-lags slightly improves over no lags. The results suggest that use of near-surface SM for estimating SM at 2·5–30 cm is most promising. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hindcasting multidecadal predevelopment groundwater levels in the Floridan aquifer

Establishing predevelopment benchmark groundwater conditions is challenging without long-term records to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. Understanding periodic natural cycles and trends require 100 years or more data which rarely exist. Using limited records, we develop an approach to hindcast multidecadal levels and examine the temporal evolution of climatic and pumping impacts. The methodology includes a wavelet-aided statistical model, constrained by temporal scales of physical processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including rainfall, evapotranspiration and pumping stresses. The model and hindcasts are tested at three sites in Florida using traditional split calibration-verification methods for the period of record and with the documented historical drought and wet years for the period of no-record. The pumping impact is quantified over time and compared with regional groundwater models, revealing that withdrawals are responsible for 30 to 70% of the declines in levels since 1960s. Hindcasting yielding 110 years of monthly levels is used to assess the effect of climate change and pumping on the frequency of critical low levels. At all three sites, the frequencies of critical low levels increase significantly in the 1960 to 2015 period when compared to the 1904 to 1959 period. For example, at site 1, the return period of the critical low level is shortened by 3.9 years due to climate change and 2.2 years due to pumping.     

Stress distribution from railway track over geogrid reinforced ballast underlain by clay

Railway ballast forms a major component of a conventional rail track and is used to distribute the load to the subgrade, providing a smooth running surface for trains. It plays a significant role in providing support for the rail track base and distributing the load to the weaker layer underneath. Ballast also helps with drainage, which is an important factor for any type of transportation structure, including railroads. Over time, ballast progressively deforms and degrades under dynamic loading and loses its strength. In this study, extensive laboratory tests were conducted to investigate the effect of load amplitude, geogrid position, and number of geogrid layers, thickness of ballast layer and clay stiffness on the behavior of the reinforced ballast layer and induced strains in a geogrid. A half full-scale railway was constructed for carrying out the tests, which consisted of two rails 800 mm in length with three wooden sleepers(900 mm × 10 mm × 10 mm). Three ballast thicknesses of 200, 300 and 400 mm were used in the tests. The ballast was overlying 500 mm thickness clay in two states, soft and stiff. The tests were carried out with and without geogrid reinforcement; the tests were performed in a well-tied steel box of 1.5 m length ×1 m width ×1 m height. Laboratory tests were conducted to investigate the response of the ballast and the clay layers where the ballast was reinforced by a geogrid. Settlement in ballast and clay, soil pressure and pore water pressure induced in the clay were measured in reinforced and unreinforced ballast cases. It was concluded that the amount of settlement increased as the simulated train load amplitude increased, and there was a sharp increase in settlement up to cycle 500. After that, there was a gradual increase that leveled out between, 2500 to 4500 cycles depending on the frequency used. There was a slight increase in the induced settlement when the load amplitude increased from 0.5 to 1 ton but it was higher when the load amplitude increased to 2 tons. The increased amount in settlement depended on the existence of the geogrid and other parameters studied. The transmitted average vertical stress for ballast thicknesses of 30 cm and 40 cm increased as the load amplitude increased, regardless of the ballast reinforcement for both soft and stiff clay. The position of the geogrid had no significant effect on the transmitted stresses. The value of the soil pressure and pore water pressure on ballast thicknesses of 20 cm was higher than for 30 cm and 40 cm thicknesses. This meant that the ballast attenuated the induced waves. The soil pressure and pore water pressure for reinforced and unreinforced ballast was higher in stiff clay than in soft clay.     

Experimental study of headcut erosion in cohesive soils under different consolidation types and hydraulic parameters

Headcut is a change in stream channel elevation, where there is concentrated flow. Most of the past studies focus on non-cohesive soils, although many problems on the streams occur because of cohesive beds and banks. In this study, eight samples of cohesive soils, with a different composition of silt and clay, for different waterfall heights and flow velocity under long- and short-term natural consolidation conditions were tested. In one of the tests, a sand layer was settled on the headcut bed to investigate its impact on headcut erosion. By increasing clay content, the headcut will remain vertical as it moves backward. Result showed that the effect of clay content reduction was more noticeable under the long-term consolidation condition. In general, the effect of clay percentage variation on the measured parameters is much higher than the effects of waterfall height or flow velocity, and the effect of consolidation type and adding a sand layer on the measured values is much higher than the effect of clay percentage variation on the waterfall height and flow velocity.     

Assessment of relative slope stability of Kodiak shelf,Alaska, using high‐resolution acoustic profiling data

Abstract

The use of marine high‐resolution geophysical profiling data, seafloor soil samples, and accepted land‐based methods of analysis have provided a means of assessing the regional geotechnical conditions and relative slope stability of the portion of the Gulf of Alaska Continental Margin known as the Kodiak Shelf. Eight distinct types of soils were recognized in the study; the seafloor distribution of these indicates a complex geotechnical setting. Each soil unit was interpreted as having a distinct suite of geotechnical properties and potential foundation engineering problems. Seven categories of relative slope stability were defined and mapped. These categories range from “highest stability”; to “lowest stability,”; and are based on the degree of slope of the seafloor, type of soil underlying the slope, and evidence of mass movement. The results of the analysis indicate that the highest potential for soil failure exists on (1) the slopes forming boundaries between the submarine banks and the broad sea valleys, and (2) the upper portion of the continental slope, where evidence of past slope failure is common. Also of concern are gently sloping areas near the edges of submarine banks where evidence of possible tension cracks and slow downhill creep was found.     

Assessing building vulnerability to tsunami using the PTVA-3 model: A case study of Chabahar Bay,Iran

Chabahar Bay, in southeastern Iran, lies at the north of the Gulf of Oman and close to the Makran Subduction Zone, which makes it a region that is susceptible to tsunamis. This bay has an increasingly important role in Iran’s international trade, and therefore the assessment of the regional vulnerability to the effects of a tsunami is vital. Based on both the details of historical events and the results of numerical modeling of the propagation pattern of a tsunami in this region, this study assessed the vulnerability of buildings within the Chabahar Bay region to a tsunami event. The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) model was used to calculate a relative vulnerability index (RVI) for the affected buildings based on their physical and structural characteristics. The results showed that in a postulated worst-case-scenario tsunami event in the Chabahar Bay area, approximately 60 % of the residential buildings would be affected, a level of damage that is categorized as “Average” in the RVI classification. Overall, the economic losses related to the damage of residential buildings due to a tsunami in the Chabahar Bay area are anticipated to be the equivalent of US$ 16.5 million.     

Monitoring disasters with a constellation of satellites – type examples from the International Charter ‘Space and Major Disasters’

In the case of a major disaster, information derived from satellite observation is not only highly useful, it may at times be indispensable because of the damage caused by the disaster to ground infrastructure. The International Charter ‘Space and Major Disasters’ (‘the Charter’) has been one of the primary sources of satellite data for the past 11 years to cover events like floods, fires, tsunamis, ocean storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and oil spills. With the growing membership of the Charter, an increasingly large number of sensors are now available, which can be planned with the required temporal frequency and spectral range to cover a disaster event. Some of the type Charter activation cases are reported in this article to demonstrate the innovative use of multi-satellite imagery for disaster response.