Design of reinforced soil structures is greatly influenced by soil–geosynthetic interactions at interface which is normally assessed by costly and time consuming laboratory tests. In present research, using the results of large-scale direct shear tests conducted on soil–anchored geogrid samples a model for predicting Enhanced Interaction Coefficient (EIC) is proposed enabling researchers/engineers easily, quickly and at no cost to estimate soil–geosynthetic interactions. In this regard well and poorly graded sands, anchors of three different size and anchorage lengths from the shear surface together with normal pressures of 12.5, 25 and 50 kPa were used. Artificial Intelligence (AI) called the Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was adopted to develop the model. Input variables included coefficients of curvature and uniformity, normal pressure, effective grain size, anchor base and surface area, anchorage length and the output variable was EIC. Contributions of input variables were evaluated using sensitivity analysis. Excellent correlation between the GEP-based model and the experimental results were achieved showing that the proposed model is well capable of effectively estimating soil–anchored geogrid enhanced interaction coefficient. Sensitivity analysis for parameter importance shows that the most influential variables are normal pressure (σn) and anchorage length (L) and the least effective parameters are average particle size (D50) and anchor base area (Ab).
Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff. 相似文献
Catch and effort data were analyzed to estimate the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) of King Soldier Bream, Argyrops spinifer(Forssk?l, 1775, Family: Sparidae), and to evaluate the present status of the fish stocks exploited in Pakistani waters. The catch and effort data for the 25-years period 1985–2009 were analyzed using two computer software packages, CEDA(catch and effort data analysis) and ASPIC(a surplus production model incorporating covariates). The maximum catch of 3 458 t was observed in 1988 and the minimum catch of 1 324 t in 2005, while the average annual catch of A. spinifer over the 25 years was 2 500 t. The surplus production models of Fox, Schaefer, and Pella Tomlinson under three error assumptions of normal, log-normal and gamma are in the CEDA package and the two surplus models of Fox and logistic are in the ASPIC package. In CEDA, the MSY was estimated by applying the initial proportion(IP) of 0.8, because the starting catch was approximately 80% of the maximum catch. Except for gamma, because gamma showed maximization failures, the estimated results of MSY using CEDA with the Fox surplus production model and two error assumptions, were 1 692.08 t(R 2 =0.572) and 1 694.09 t( R 2 =0.606), respectively, and from the Schaefer and the Pella Tomlinson models with two error assumptions were 2 390.95 t( R 2 =0.563), and 2 380.06 t( R 2 =0.605), respectively. The MSY estimated by the Fox model was conservatively compared to the Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models. The MSY values from Schaefer and Pella Tomlinson models were the same. The computed values of MSY using the ASPIC computer software program with the two surplus production models of Fox and logistic were 1 498 t(R 2 =0.917), and 2 488 t( R 2 =0.897) respectively. The estimated values of MSY using CEDA were about 1 700–2 400 t and the values from ASPIC were 1 500–2 500 t. The estimates output by the CEDA and the ASPIC packages indicate that the stock is overfished, and needs some effective management to reduce the fishing effort of the species in Pakistani waters. 相似文献
This paper presents a new optimization model to help cities in seismically active developing countries decide (1) How much to spend on pre-earthquake mitigation versus waiting until after an event and paying for reconstruction or simply not rebuilding damaged buildings? (2) Which buildings to mitigate and how? and (3) Which buildings to reconstruct and how? It extends previously developed optimization models to consider the particular issues that arise in such countries. First, the model allows for the possibility that some damaged buildings will not be reconstructed immediately and keeps track of any lost building inventory. Second, buildings can be mitigated to, or when damaged, reconstructed to, any appropriate structural type and seismic design level. Finally, the model objectives include minimizing the chance of an extremely high death toll in any one earthquake and minimizing the average annual death toll across earthquakes. The model is illustrated through a case study analysis for Tehran, Iran. 相似文献
Oligocene and Lower Miocene sediments from High Folded Zone of Iraqi Zagros have been studied paleontologically at south of Sulaimaniyah, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq. The identified fauna are consisted of (25) genera and species of benthonic and (16) species of planktonic foraminifera. The fauna comprises relatively abundant foraminiferal assemblages of moderate diversity. Based on the stratigraphic distribution of these species, two biozones have been recognized which are Nummulites—Rotalia and Globoquadrina dehiscens zones. These biozones indicate that the studied sections of Basara and Khewata are of Late Oligocene–Early Miocene age. Based on the microfossils, it has been found that the age of sediments is equivalent to or represents Anah and Serikagni Formations. Some previous studies described Oligocene rocks (Kirkuk Group) as interior sag basin. In the present study, the occurrence of the group inside High Folded Zone and its rich fauna content are used for the discussion of the sag basin versus normal marine water. 相似文献
A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper–Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using cross-correlation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibration-validation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period. 相似文献
Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high-resolution N -body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy haloes. In this paper, we explore a different approach that consists of filtering the dark matter power spectrum on small scales, thereby altering the formation history of low-mass objects. The physical motivation for damping these fluctuations lies in the possibility that the dark matter particles have a different nature, i.e. are warm (WDM) rather than cold. We show that this leads to some interesting new results in terms of the merger history and large-scale distribution of low-mass haloes, compared with the standard CDM scenario. However, WDM does not appear to be the ultimate solution, in the sense that it is not able to fully solve the CDM crisis, even though one of the main drawbacks, namely the abundance of satellites, can be remedied. Indeed, the cuspiness of the halo profiles still persists, at all redshifts, and for all haloes and sub-haloes that we investigated. Despite the persistence of the cuspiness problem of DM haloes, WDM seems to be still worth taking seriously, as it alleviates the problems of over-abundant sub-structures in galactic haloes and possibly the lack of angular momentum of simulated disc galaxies. WDM also lessens the need to invoke strong feedback to solve these problems, and may provide a natural explanation of the clustering properties and ages of dwarfs. 相似文献
Natural Hazards - This study is an effort of people-centric geo-spatial exposure and damage assessment of 2014-flood in Upper Indus Plain (UIP). Community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM)... 相似文献
The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R2 values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R2 values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91–3.15 °C, 0.93–2.63 °C, and 6–12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69–1.92 °C, 0.56–1.63 °C, and 8–14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied. 相似文献