A practical ranking system to compare toxicity of anti-fouling paints

The toxicity of a number of new anti-fouling paints, claimed to function by physical means and not by leakage of toxic substances, have been tested on two common organisms in the Baltic Sea, i.e., the red macro alga Ceramium tenuicorne and the copepod Nitocra spinipes. In order to compare the toxicity between the paints a ranking system was developed based on the EC₅₀- and LC₅₀-values. The results showed a wide span in toxicity with the most toxic paints ranked 160 times more toxic than the ones ranked least toxic.

Also, TBT, irgarol and diuron, which have been used as active ingredients in traditional anti-fouling paints, were used to evaluate the sensitivity of the two test organisms. The results showed that the test organisms were equally sensitive to the substances as similar organisms in earlier studies.

In conclusion, the ranking system presented in this study permits ranking and comparison of total toxicity of complex mixtures.     

Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera,Iceland

Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.     

Differences in physiological response to increased seawater temperature in nearshore and offshore corals in northern Vietnam

Effects of elevated seawater temperature show high spatial heterogeneity and variation within and among coral species. The objective of this study was to investigate how two coral species, Porites lutea and Galaxea fascicularis, from two high latitude reefs differently exposed to chronic disturbance, respond to elevated seawater temperatures. Corals were collected from reefs nearshore (i.e. subjected to high sediment load, higher chlorophyll α concentrations, turbidity etc.) and offshore (i.e. less exposed). The corals were exposed in the lab to gradually increasing temperatures (25.5-33.5?°C) for 72?h after which they were allowed to recover to ambient temperature (25.5?°C) for 24?h. Production and respiration were measured after 24, 48, 72 and 96?h. The results show that P. lutea from nearshore reefs suffered an initial decrease in gross primary production/respiration (GP/R) ratio after 24?h, after only a moderate temperature increase (+2?°C, from 25.5 to 27.5?°C), while there was no difference in GP/R ratio between heat-exposed and controls the other days, indicating that the chronic disturbance in the nearshore reef had no effect on their thermotolerance. Furthermore, P. lutea from the offshore reef showed a decrease in GP/R ratio both after 24?h and 72?h (33.5?°C) of exposure. In comparison, G. fascicularis showed a decrease in GP/R ratio after 48?h, 72?h and 96?h of exposure for the nearshore corals. Also, after 72?h these corals had withdrawn their polyps. There were no differences between heat-treated and controls for the offshore G. fascicularis. This implies that the chronically disturbed G. fascicularis had lower thermotolerance when exposed to a temperature increase. This study, hence, shows that the response of corals to elevated seawater temperature varies with species and environmental background history.     

A finite element formulation in Lagrangian co-ordinates for heat and fluid flow in compacting sedimentary basins

This article presents a numerical model of heat and fluid flow in compacting sedimentary basins formulated in Lagrangian co-ordinates. The Lagrangian co-ordinates are the sediment particle positions of the completely compacted basin. A finite element formulation of excess water pressure and temperature in these Lagrangian co-ordinates is presented, in addition to an equivalent formulation in the real co-ordinates. The later formulation is also Lagrangian of nature, since the elements of the grid in the real co-ordinates always frame the same sediment particles. In other words, it is the Lagrangian grid mapped to the real space. This is done in an iterative loop which solves for excess water pressure, and then updates the real co-ordinates of the sediment particles. By comparing the two finite element formulations it is concluded that the one in real space is the simplest, most efficient and most precise. The model is validated by comparison with two dimensionless one-dimensional solutions, one analytical for the linear case, and one numerical for the non-linear case. Both these one-dimensional solutions are obtained on the unit interval, where the moving top boundary caused by continuous sedimentation is incorporated.     

Eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) in marine environmental monitoring

The implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive necessitates the development of common criteria and methodological standards for marine environmental monitoring and assessment across Europe. Eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) is proposed as a key indicator organism in the Baltic and North Sea regions. This benthic fish species is widely used in ecotoxicological studies and as a bioindicator of local pollution due to its stationary behavior. Eelpout is included in the environmental monitoring program of several Baltic States, covering both chemical and biological effects measurements, and samples have been archived in environmental specimen banks for >15 years. A method for evaluating the frequency of larval aberrations has been suggested as a standardized assessment tool. The large scientific knowledge-base and considerable experience of long-term chemical and biological effects monitoring and specimen banking, make eelpout a suitable species for the assessment of Good Environmental Status in the Baltic and North Seas.     

The effect of health benefits on climate change mitigation policies

This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with eleven heterogeneous regions, with special emphasis on USA, Europe, China, India, and Africa. We introduce health impacts into a simple economic integrated assessment model where both the local cooling effect of SO ₂ and the global warming effect of CO ₂ are endogenous, and investigate how these factors affect the equilibrium path. Regions do not respond in the same way to climate change. In particular, emission abatement rates and health costs depend on the economic and geographical characteristics of each region. Two policy scenarios are considered, Nash and Optimal, for which we present both global and regional results. Results for Africa and China are highlighted.     

Note on Coriolis-Stokes force and energy

In this study, we consider the origin of the Coriolis-Stokes (CS) force in the wave-averaged momentum and energy equations and make a short analysis of possible energy input to the ocean circulation (i.e., Eulerian mean velocity) from the CS force. Essentially, we find that the CS force appears naturally when considering vertically integrated quantities and that the CS force will not provide any energy input into the system for this case. However, by including the “Hasselmann force”, we show some inconsistencies regarding the vertical structure of the CS force in the Eulerian framework and find that there is a distinct vertical structure of the energy input and that the net input strongly depends on whether the wave zone is included in the analysis or not. We therefore question the introduction of the “Hasselmann force” into the system of equations, as the CS force appears naturally in the vertically integrated equations or when Lagrangian vertical coordinates are used.     

Digital Terrain Model Resolution and its Influence on Estimating the Extent of Rockfall Areas

As rockfall can cause a great deal of damage, it is essential to know its spatial propagation. Rockfall models are sensitive to the resolution of input data, i.e. the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) used. Nowadays, high resolution elevation data are available area‐wide from airborne laser scanning (ALS). However, rockfall models are designed for analysis on a certain scale, which means that high resolution input might not necessarily improve model results (e.g. for regional scale studies). Our aim is to estimate the reach of rockfall by analysing different input resolutions of an ALS DTM. The presented empirically–based model, implemented in Python 2.7, is a modified version of the zenital method including an iterative random walk trajectory model, which is designed for rockfall hazard assessment at the regional scale. Trajectories and rockfall probability maps are generated for selected DTM input resolutions. The comparison shows that high resolution DTMs do consider local topography better and thus lead to more realistic results than low resolution DTMs.