Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".     

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.     

Experimental and theoretical radiative decay rates for highly excited ruthenium atomic levels and the solar abundance of ruthenium

The solar photospheric abundance of ruthenium is revised on the basis of a new set of oscillator strengths derived for Ru  i transitions with wavelengths in the spectral range 2250–4710 Å. The new abundance value (in the usual logarithmic scale where the solar hydrogen abundance is equal to 12.00),   A _Ru= 1.72 ± 0.10  , is in agreement with the most recent meteoritic result,   A _Ru= 1.76 ± 0.03  . The accuracy of the transition probabilities, obtained using a relativistic Hartree–Fock model including core-polarization effects, has been assessed by comparing the theoretical lifetimes with previous experimental results. A comparison is also made with new measurements performed in this work by the time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy for 10 highly excited odd-parity levels of Ru  i .     

Formation of Zr I and II lines under non-LTE conditions of stellar atmospheres

The formation of Zr I and Zr II lines in stellar atmospheres under non-LTE conditions has been considered for the first time. A model zirconium atom has been composed using 148 Zr I levels, 772 Zr II levels, and the ground Zr III state. Non-LTE calculations have been performed for model atmospheres with T _eff = 5500 and 6000 K, log g = 2.0 and 4.0, [M/H] = −3, −2, −1, 0. In the entire investigated range of parameters, the Zr I levels are shown to be underpopulated relative to their LTE populations in the line formation region. In contrast, the excited Zr II levels are overpopulated, while the ground state and lower excited levels of Zr II retain their LTE populations. Since the non-LTE effects cause the Zr I and Zr II spectral lines being investigated to weaken, the non-LTE corrections to the abundance derived from Zr I and Zr II lines are positive. For Zr II lines, they increase with decreasing metallicity and surface gravity up to 0.34 dex for the model with T _eff = 5500, log g = 2.0, and [M/H] = −2. The non-LTE effects depend weakly on temperature. The non-LTE corrections for Zr I lines reach 0.33 dex for solar-metallicity models. Zr I and Zr II lines in the solar spectrum have been analyzed. The non-LTE zirconium abundances derived from lines in the two ionization stages are shown to agree between themselves within the error limits, while the LTE abundance difference is 0.28 dex. The zirconium abundance in the solar atmosphere (averaged over Zr I and Zr II lines) is log ɛ_Zr,⊙ = 2.63 ± 0.07.     

Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.     

Inherited Landforms and Glacial Impact of Different Palaeosurfaces in Southwest Sweden

Landforms are used as analytical tools to separate inherited features from the glacial impact on Precambrian basement rocks in southwest Sweden. The study covers three different palaeosurfaces, the sub-Cambrian peneplain (relative relief (r.r.) 0–20 m) with the character of a pediplain, an uplifted and dissected part of the sub-Cambrian peneplain (r.r. 5–40 m) and an etch-surface (r.r. 20–135 m), presumably sub-Mesozoic. The surfaces were recently re-exposed, probably due to a Neogene upheaval with some pre-glacial reshaping. Strong structural control and no alignment with glacial erosional directions other than those coinciding with structures, are arguments for etch processes as a most important agent for relief differentiation. This is strengthened by the occurrence of saprolite residues and etchforms in protected positions.
The glacial reshaping of the sub-Cambrian flat bedrock surfaces is negligible. The glacial impact becomes more evident in the uplifted and dissected parts of the peneplain and within the hilly sub-Mesozoic surface. The higher the initial relief the more effect of glacial erosion on individual hills, both on the abrading side, with formation of roches moutonnées, and on the plucking side. Detailed etchforms are preserved in protected positions in spite of erosion by a clearly wet-based ice. The magnitude of the Pleistocene glacial erosion is considerably less than the amplitude of the palaeorelief in the entire area.
Landscapes of areal glacial scouring have been described as comprising irregular depressions with intervening bosses scraped by ice and labelled 'knock and lochan' topography, but we suggest that an etched bedrock surface is a prerequisite for this type of landscape to develop.     

The carbon-sequestration potential of a global afforestation program

We analyzed the changes in the carbon cycle that could be achieved with a global, largescale afforestation program that is economically, politically, and technically feasible. We estimated that of the areas regarded as suitable for large-scale plantations, only about 345 million ha would actually be available for plantations and agroforestry for the sole purpose of sequestering carbon. The maximum annual rate of carbon fixation (1.48 Gt/yr) would only be achieved 60 years after the establishment of the plantations - 1.14 Gt by above-ground biomass and 0.34 Gt by below-ground biomass. Over the period from 1995 to 2095, a total of 104 Gt of carbon would be sequestered. This is substantially lower than the amount of carbon required to offset current carbon emissions (3.8 Gt/yr) in order to stabilize the carbon content of the atmosphere.     

Nahrungsfauna und Kanadische Seeforelle in Berner Gebirgsseen

Ohne Zusammenfassung English Summary: Lake trout and its prey fauna in Swiss mountain lakes) Die Nahrungsfauna wurde vonGrim⇘s, Nahrungs?kologie und Wachstum der Fische vonNilsson bearbeitet.     

Complex study of the auroral arc dynamics and ionospheric plasma convection in prenoon hours

The dynamics of auroral arcs, observed in the prenoon sector during the 2-h period, has been studied in the context of ionospheric convection. The appearance of an isolated arc, the poleward drift velocity of which pronouncedly exceeded the plasma drift velocity, accompanied the IMF impulse and could result from the Alfvén resonance oscillations of the magnetosphere. Arcs that appeared after the northward turning of the IMF vertical component drifted poleward at a velocity close to the convection velocity. The mechanism of arc generation is related to the flute instability which develops in the region of the large-scale field-aligned current. Flute instability indications are found out in the POLAR satellite data. The study confirms the previously proposed classification criterion for dayside arcs with the source on closed field lines, based on the character of arc drift as compared to convection.