Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

A critical zone observatory dedicated to suspended sediment transport: The meso-scale Galabre catchment (southern French Alps)

The 20 km² Galabre catchment belongs to the French network of critical zone observatories (OZCAR; Gaillardet et al., Vadose Zone Journal, 2018, 17(1), 1–24). It is representative of the sedimentary lithology and meteorological forcing found in Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Due to the presence of highly erodible and sloping badlands on various lithologies, the site was instrumented in 2007 to understand the dynamics of suspended sediments (SS) in such areas. Two meteorological stations including measurements of air temperature, wind speed and direction, air moisture, rainfall intensity, raindrop size and velocity distribution were installed both in the upper and lower part of the catchment. At the catchment outlet, a gauging station records the water level, temperature and turbidity (10 min time-step). Stream water samples are collected automatically to estimate SS concentration-turbidity relationships, allowing quantification of SS fluxes with known uncertainty. The sediment samples are further characterized by measuring their particle size distributions and by applying a low-cost sediment fingerprinting approach using spectrocolorimetric tracers. Thus, the contributions of badlands located on different lithologies to total SS flux are quantified at a high temporal resolution, providing the opportunity to better analyse the links between meteorological forcing variability and watershed hydrosedimentary response. The set of measurements was extended to the dissolved phase in 2017. Both stream water electrical conductivity and major ion concentrations are measured each week and every 3 h during storm events. This extension of measurements to the dissolved phase will allow progress in understanding both the origin of the water during the events and the partitioning between particulate and dissolved fluxes of solutes in the critical zone. All data sets are available at https://doi.osug.fr/public/DRAIXBLEONE_GAL/index.html .     

Modeling discrete gas bubble formation and mobilization during subsurface heating of contaminated zones

During thermal remediation the increase in subsurface temperature can lead to bubble formation and mobilization. In order to investigate the effect of gas formation on resulting aqueous concentrations, a 2D finite difference flow and mass transport model was developed which incorporates a macroscopic invasion percolation (MIP) model to simulate bubble expansion and movement. The model was used to simulate three soil scenarios with different permeabilities and entry pressures at various operating temperatures and groundwater velocities. It was observed that discrete bubble formation occurred in all three soils, upward mobility being limited by lower temperatures and higher entry pressures. Bubble mobilization resulted in a different aqueous mass distribution than if no discrete gas formation was modeled, especially at higher temperatures. This was a result of bubbles moving upwards to cooler areas, then collapsing, and contaminating previously clean zones. The cooling effect also led to possible non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) formation which was not predicted using a model without discrete bubble formation.     

Tectonic subsidence history and thermal evolution of the Orange Basin

The Orange Basin offshore southwest Africa appears to represent a classical example of continental rifting and break up associated with large-scale, transient volcanism. The presence of lower crustal bodies of high seismic velocities indicates that large volumes of igneous crust formed as a consequence of lithospheric extension.     

Report on species of Gyrodactylus Nordmann, 1832, distribution in polar regions

The aim of this study was to compare the Gyrodactylus fauna in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Fish were collected from waters surrounding the South Shetland Islands in the Antarctic and from the Revelva River and Hornsund Fjord in south Spitsbergen in the Arctic. Eighty-two individual fish representing seven species from three families (Channichthyidae, Harpagiferidae, and Nototheniidae) were found in Antarctica and 2 Gyrodactylus infections with altogether 95 specimens were reported. Two new species were identified: Gyrodactylus sp. 1 Rokicka et al., 2009, from the gills of the black rock cod, Notothenia coriiceps Richardson, 1844, and Gyrodactylus sp. 2 Rokicka et al., 2009, from the gills of the gaudy notothen, Lepidonotothen nudifrons Lönnberg, 1905. No Gyrodactylus were found in the 95 Arctic fish examined, which represented four species from four families (Salmonidae, Gadidae, Cottidae, and Liparidae).     

Report on anisakid nematodes in polar regions – Preliminary results

The aim of this study is to extend our knowledge of the distribution of anisakid nematode parasites in Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. We examined vertebrate (fish) taxa characteristic of the faunas in both polar regions for the presence of parasitic nematodes. The material was collected from Svalbard (Arctic) between July and August 2008 and from King George Island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula) between November 2007 and January 2008. In addition, faecal, bird, and invertebrate samples were collected and examined for the presence of anisakid nematodes or eggs. Anisakis simplex s.s. was found in the body cavity of Arctic cod, and Contracaecum sp. and Pseudoterranova sp. were found in Antarctic notothenioids. Eggs of Anisakis sp. and Contracaecum sp. were recovered from the faeces of Mirounga leonina. We present the first record of the occurrence of A. simplex C in the Antarctic fishes Notothenia coriiceps and Notothenia rossii.     

Early angiosperm diversification: evidence from southern South America

In this report, we analyze the angiosperm fossil record (micro- and megafossil) from the central and southern basins of Argentina, southern South America, deposited between the late Barremian (128.3 Ma) to the end of the Coniacian (85.8 Ma). Based on this analysis, three major stages in the evolution of the angiosperms in the southernmost region of South America are established as follows: the late Barremian–Aptian, the latest Aptian-earliest Albian, and the middle Albian- Coniacian. The comparison between our fossil data set and those from Australia, North America, Asia and Europe suggest that the evolution and diversification of the angiosperms at mid and high latitudes in both hemispheres occurred roughly synchronously.