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991.
Y. Huang Y. P. Li X. Chen A. M. Bao Y. G. Ma 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(1):147-158
In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability. 相似文献
992.
993.
Guoqing Ma 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(4):633-643
We present two new potential-inversion methods for estimating the depth and the nature (structural index) of the source, which use various combinations of different forms of local wavenumbers and the information about the horizontal location to estimate individually the depth and the nature of a magnetic source. The improved local wavenumber methods only use the horizontal offset and vertical offset of local wavenumbers to estimate the depth and the structural index of the source, so they yield more stable results compared with the results obtained by current methods that require the derivatives of local wavenumbers. Tests conducted with synthetic noise-free and noise-corrupted magnetic data show that the proposed methods can successfully estimate the depth and the nature of the geologic body. However, our methods are sensitive to high-wavenumber noise present in the data, and we reduced the noise effect by upward continuing the noise-corrupted magnetic data. The practical application of the new methods is tested on a real magnetic anomaly over a dike whose source parameters are known and the inversion results are consistent with the true values. 相似文献
994.
Vertical total electron content (VTEC) time series were obtained from 22 GPS stations near the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake. In this paper, we have adopted a sliding average method to detect and analyze anomalous VTEC associated with the earthquake. The results show that significant, negative ionosphere VTEC anomalies appeared over the 5 days before the earthquake, and on the day when earthquake occurred. The maximum value of VTEC anomalies that exceeded the lower bound reached 20 TECU. The spatial distribution of VTEC anomalies showed a conjugate structure, which shifted to the magnetic equator, and subsequently moved westwards. 相似文献
995.
Fine round gravel soil is widely employed in the subgrade of high speed railways in cold regions to prevent frost heaving
and thawing. The lower the fines content in fine round gravel soil, the smaller the quantities of frost heaving and thawing,
but compaction difficulty increases. This study is to obtain the optimum fines content and limited frost heaving and
thawing. The fine round gravel soil filling (FRGSF) used in the Harbin-Qiqihaer Passenger Dedicated Line is taken as the
study object. Influence of fines content on optimum water content, maximum dry density and frost heaving properties of
FRGSF were studied by means of compaction and frost heaving tests. Results show that the maximum dry density of the
FRGSF increases first and then decreases with an increase of fines content, namely there is an optimum fines content for
easy compaction. The method of surface-vibratory instrument is fit for coarse-grained soils, and wet state of
coarse-grained soil is in favor of compaction. Considering the relationship of fines content with maximum dry density and
the frost heaving ratio of FRGSF, the fines content should be limited to within the range of 9%-10%, so that the frost
heaving ratio is less than 1%, and the FRGSF is easily compacted. Water supply is proved to be an important factor influencing
the amount of frost heaving of FRGSF. We also conclude that in the field, it is imperative to control waterproofing
and drainage measures. 相似文献
996.
Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water
index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years.
Results indicated that the number of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during
1973–2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during
1973–1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than
0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in
the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors. 相似文献
997.
随着城镇化发展的加快, 上海的地电场观测受到来自周围环境噪声的影响日益严重, 这些噪声干扰对于地震前兆异常的分析判断带来很多不确定性. 本文主要探讨通过小波变换方法来分解地电场观测原始信号, 分析环境噪声对原始观测数据的影响强度. 利用异常信号的小波模值对比分析了滤波结果, 并通过绘制极化方位图检验了该方法在实际运用中的效果. 结果表明: 数字滤波方法能很好地去除日常干扰所带来的背景噪声, 对于重构的地电场信号, 也能较好地反映其原始信号变化特征; 滤波后的自然电场异常信号保留了原始信号中主要的变化特征, 并能反映其原始变化规律; 重构的地电场信号能够突出信号中异常信号极化方位角, 使极化方位收敛有利于实际运用. 相似文献
998.
Abstract This work makes explicit an algebraic expression giving the matrix of transient influence coefficients associated with a one-dimensional semi-confined aquifer model. The domain studied is divided into a series of connected and completely mixed compartments over which the governing equation is discretized. The discrete equations obtained are solved for the compartmental hydraulic head and used to derive the algebraic expression in question. The basic properties of the so-called algebraic influence coefficients are investigated. In particular, their consistency with the exact Green function is highlighted. Finally, the newly derived influence coefficients are applied to a simplified aquifer system in order to formulate and solve the problem of identifying illegal groundwater pumping. 相似文献
999.
ABSTRACTWater temperature dynamics in a reservoir are affected by its bathymetry, climatic conditions and hydrological processes. Miyun Reservoir in China is a large and deep reservoir that experienced a large water level decline in 1999–2004 due to low rainfall and relatively high water supply to Beijing. To study changes of stratification characteristics in Miyun Reservoir from 1998 to 2011, the one-dimensional year-round lake model MINLAKE2010 was modified by adding a new selective withdraw module and a reservoir hydrological model. Simulation results under three scenarios demonstrated that the new MINLAKE2012 model accurately predicted daily water levels and temperature dynamics during the water level fluctuation period. The water level decline led to 7.6 and 3.8°C increases in the maximum and mean bottom temperatures and about 29 days reduction in the stratification days. These simulation results provide an insight into the thermal evolution of Miyun Reservoir during the planned future water filling process.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor M. Acreman 相似文献
1000.
ABSTRACTThere is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献