地貌灾害预测预报的基本问题——以泥石流预测预报为例

从地貌灾害的定义入手，阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径，以及进行预测预报的四种方法。以泥石流为例，论述了泥石流预测预报的现状及其热点、难点和可能的突破点，以及目前和今后一段时期的切人点和研究重点。综述了国内外对泥石流小尺度空间预测，规模预测，时间预测，包括重现期预测、降雨预测和危险度预测的一系列有实用价值的经验公式及其在应用中存在的问题。阐明了灾害评价和预测预报在灾害学研究中的重要地位。     

风沙过渡区土地利用变化及生态效应图谱——以陕北榆阳区为例

以遥感影像资料为依据,运用地学信息图谱研究方法,在RS和GIS的支持下分析榆阳区1985~2000年土地利用及其生态服务价值的时空变化特征。结果表明:该区研究期内最主要的土地利用动态是未利用地向草地的转化,其变化占全区总变动量91.14%;土地利用变化使生态系统的生态服务价值增加了158.59×10⁶元,增幅为8.23%,其中,风沙区占总增量的85.99%,增幅10.88%,黄土丘陵沟壑区占总增量14.01%,增幅3.29%。经过实证分析,利用地学信息图谱进行土地利用变化和生态效应定量研究是一种十分有效的方法。     

江西九瑞地区东雷湾矽卡岩型铜多金属矿床流体包裹体特征及稳定同位素地球化学研究

对位于江西九瑞地区的东雷湾矽卡岩型铜钼金多金属矿床主成矿阶段(石英金属硫化物阶段)石英中的流体包裹体进行了岩相学和显微测温研究。结果表明,与成矿有关的包裹体类型主要有4类,成矿流体的均一温度和盐度主要集中于210~350℃和1%~9%,总体属于高中温、中低盐度流体体系。包裹体的气相成分以H2O和CO2为主,其次有N2、CO、O2,有少量CH4、C2H2;液相成分中,阳离子以Ca2+、K+、Na+为主,含少量Mg2+,阴离子以Cl-、SO2-4为主,含少量NO-3、NO-2,流体属于CO2-H2O-Na Cl-Ca Cl2(KCl)体系,计算所得离子浓度为3.1%~34.5%。氢、氧同位素特征显示,主成矿阶段成矿流体δ18OH2O值为0.93‰~5.20‰,δDV-SMOW值为-81‰~-64‰,表明成矿流体主要为岩浆水,有极少量大气降水混入。矿石硫化物的δ34SV-CDT‰值为-2.2‰~3.4‰,结合铅、铼同位素特征表明,东雷湾矿床的成矿物质主要来源于上地幔,同时有一定量的壳源物质混入。东雷湾矿床为热液交代矽卡岩型矿床,区域褶皱和断裂为成矿岩浆提供运移通道,岩浆侵位发育矽卡岩型岩浆流体系统,并伴随有Cu(Mo、Au等)矿化,最终形成矿床。     

Detecting and attributing vegetation changes in Taihang Mountain,China

Attributing vegetation changes provide fundamental information for ecosystem management,especially in mountainous areas which has vulnerable ecosystems. Based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) data, the spatial-temporal change of vegetation was detected in Taihang Mountain(THM) from 2000 to 2014. The topographical factors were introduced to interpret the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities. Results showed that the avegaged NDVI during growing season showed a single-peak curve distribution, with the largest value(0.628) among 1600-1800 m. A significant greening trend was detected in THM, with the largest increasing rate(0.0078 yr~(-1)) among the elevation of1600-1800 m and slope gradient between 3~5°. The partial correlation and multiple correlation analyses indicated that vegetation variation in more than81.8% pixels of the THM was mainly impacted by human activities. In the low elevation zones less than1000 m, increasing precipitation is the principle factor promoting vegetation restoration, whereas in the high elevation zones of THM, temperature is the restricted factors impacting vegetation variation.Considering the dramatic climate change in the future,further studies should be conducted to explore inherent mechanism of vegetation growth to dynamic environment changes.     

气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别

气候变化对流域径流的影响显著,但不同流域径流对各气候因子敏感性不同,具有明显的空间分异性。本文以位于半湿润、湿润地区的松花江、子牙河以及西苕溪流域为例,基于Budyko 水热平衡经验模型,采用归因分析方法分离了气象要素趋势性变化对年径流和潜在蒸发变化率的贡献与差异性。结果表明:1960-2008年,在上述3个流域中,降水趋势性变化对年径流变化的贡献比潜在蒸发大。松花江和子牙河流域各气象要素趋势性变化对潜在蒸发变化率的贡献排序为:温度>风速>水汽压>日照时数,而西苕溪流域为:温度>日照时数>风速>水汽压。在气候要素共同作用下,松花江和子牙河流域平均年径流分别以0.48和1.51 mm a^-2的速率减少,而西苕溪流域年径流则以1.42 mm a^-2的速率增加。所得结果加深了气候变化对径流影响机制和程度的认识,可作为流域水资源适应性管理的科学依据。     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall met...     

哀牢山中段镇沅金矿晚二叠世花岗斑岩U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学及其构造意义

云南镇沅地区位于哀牢山构造带中段,是古特提斯哀牢山洋关闭及碰撞造山的关键部位。本文对该地区出露的花岗斑岩进行了年代学、岩石地球化学与同位素地球化学研究。锆石U-Pb年代学给出加权平均年龄为253.3±2.0Ma,表明花岗斑岩形成于晚二叠世。3个花岗斑岩脉共5个样品分析结果表明,其SiO₂含量65.30%～70.79%,全碱含量(K₂O+Na₂O)3.53%～4.39%,Al₂O₃含量13.42%～16.40%,为高钾钙碱性亚碱性系列岩石,成分上与花岗闪长岩类似,为S型花岗岩。稀土元素含量较低,轻重稀土分异程度较高,稀土配分曲线为右倾,无明显Ce异常,具弱负Eu异常,微量元素配分曲线为右倾,大离子亲石元素相对富集,高场强元素相对亏损,与典型地壳相一致。锆石Hf同位素ε_Hf(t)为-1.0～4.1,显示岩浆源区为亏损地幔和古老地壳物质部分熔融。岩石大地构造环境分析表明,该花岗斑岩形成于晚二叠世同碰撞构造环境。     

青海虎头崖多金属矿床地球化学特征及成矿-控矿因素研究

虎头崖铜铅锌多金属矿床的成矿作用十分复杂,成矿-控矿因素仍不明,已成为制约找矿突破的瓶颈.鉴于此,笔者对该矿床的地质、地球化学特征和侵入岩年龄及地球化学开展了研究.结果表明,Ⅵ矿带二长花岗岩LA-MC-I CP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素年龄为(217.5±1.1) Ma(MSWD=1.4).Ⅵ矿带和Ⅱ矿带二长花岗岩钾、钠含量均较高,w(K2O)大于w(Na2O),分异程度较高,稀土元素球粒陨石标准化曲线向右缓倾斜,强烈富集LILE,中等富集HFSE,贫Ti、Ba,具有后碰撞阶段岩石的特点.成矿受侵入岩岩浆源区、演化方式,地层,构造,以及岩体与围岩接触方式的综合控制.源区具有地幔物质贡献的Ⅵ矿带二长花岗岩,成矿作用较强,主要形成近接触带矽卡岩型和远接触带矽卡岩型Cu-Pb-Zn多金属矿.而壳源特征为主的Ⅱ矿带二长花岗岩成矿能力较弱,主要形成矽卡岩型Sn、Mo、Fe等矿产.     

Rare earth elements and yttrium in ferromanganese deposits from the South China Sea: distribution, composition and resource considerations

Ferromanganese nodules and crusts contain relatively high concentration of rare earth elements(REE) and yttrium(REY),with a growing interest in exploitation as an alternative to land-based REY resources.On the basis of comprehensive geochemical approach,the abundance and distribution of REY in the ferromanganese nodules from the South China Sea are analyzed.The results indicate that the REY contents in ferromanganese deposits show a clear geographic regularity.Total REY contents range from 69.1×10~(–6) to 2 919.4×10~(–6),with an average value of 1 459.5×10~(–6).Especially,the enrichment rate of Ce content is high,accounting for almost 60% of the total REY.This REE enrichment is controlled mainly by the sorption of ferromanganese oxides and clay minerals in the nodules and crusts.Moreover,the total REY are higher in ferromanganese deposits of hydrogenous origin than of diagenetic origin.Finally,Light REE(LREE) and heavy REE(HREE) oxides of the ferromanganese deposits in the study area can be classified into four grades: non-enriched type,weakly enriched type,enriched type,and extremely enriched type.According to the classification criteria of rare earth resources,the Xisha and Zhongsha platform-central deep basin areas show a great potential for these rare earth metals.     

特深地下管线的电磁场特征分析及探测研究

研究了管线的一系列电磁场特征,介绍了特深管线探测应用状况,通过实例分析了从1 m到21 m了不同埋深直线电流及强电流3~21 m情况下的电磁场Hx、Hz、ΔHx 〖WTBZ〗的归一化异常的分布特征 , 提出了对特深管线探测的对策,即频率、电流、远端接地等提高信噪比的技术对策,提出了确定地下金属管线平面位置、埋深的方法,利用水平磁场分量70%法确定管线深度的适用条件,分析了特深管线探测的干扰因素,广州市3个特深管线的探测成功实例,说明了方法的良好效果.