Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response. Feedback might also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. However, in addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a box-diffusion dynamic model of the climate system to understand how changing the properties of the feedback control affect the emergent dynamics of this coupled human–climate system, and evaluate these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain). This is a challenge for policy as a delayed response is needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification of natural variability, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to changes in the observed state of the climate system.     

Water Scarcity: Moving Beyond Indexes to Innovative Institutions

Water scarcity is a media darling often times described as a trigger of conflict in arid regions, a by‐product of human influences ranging from desertification to climate change, or a combination of natural‐ and human‐induced changes in the water cycle. A multitude of indexes have been developed over the past 20 years to define water scarcity to map the “problem” and guide international donor investment. Few indexes include groundwater within the metrics of “scarcity.” Institutional communication contributes to the recognition of local or regional water scarcity. However, evaluations that neglect groundwater resources may incorrectly define conditions as scarce. In cases where there is a perception of scarcity, the incorporation of groundwater and related storage in aquifers, political willpower, new policy tools, and niche diplomacy often results in a revised status, either reducing or even eliminating the moniker locally. Imaginative conceptualization and innovative uses of aquifers are increasingly used to overcome water scarcity.     

Turbulent mixing in a stratified estuarine tidal channel: Hikapu Reach,Pelorus Sound,New Zealand

Channel constrictions within an estuary can influence overall estuary-sea exchange of salt or suspended/dissolved material. The exchange is modulated by turbulent mixing through its effect on density stratification. Here we quantify turbulent mixing in Hikapu Reach, an estuarine channel in the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand. The focus is on a period of relatively low freshwater input but where density stratification still persists throughout the tidal cycle, although the strength of stratification and its vertical structure vary substantially. The density stratification increases through the ebb tide, and decreases through the flood tide. During the spring tides observed here, ebb tidal flow speeds reached 0.7?m?s^?1 and the buoyancy frequency squared was in the range 10^?5 to 10^?3?s^?2. Turbulence parameters were estimated using both shear microstructure and velocimeter-derived inertial dissipation which compared favourably. The rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy reached 1?×?10^?6?m²?s^?3 late in the ebb tide, and estimates of the gradient Richardson number (the ratio of stability to shear) fell as low as 0.1 (i.e. unstable) although the results show that bottom-boundary driven turbulence can dominate for periods. The implication, based on scaling, is that the mixing within the channel does not homogenise the water column within a tidal cycle. Scaling, developed to characterise the tidal advection relative to the channel length, shows how riverine-driven buoyancy fluxes can pass through the tidal channel section and the stratification can remain partially intact.     

Riverine influence determines nearshore heterogeneity of nutrient (C,N, P) content and stoichiometry in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

Riverine influences on nearshore oceanic habitats often have detrimental consequences leading to algal blooms and hypoxia. In oligo- to mesotrophic systems, however, nutrient delivery via rivers may stimulate production and even be a vital source of nutrients, as may nutrient supplements from upwelling. We investigated the nutrient content (C, N, P) and stoichiometry of sediment, and several pelagic, benthopelagic and benthic species in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight, a narrow shelf area on the south-east coast of South Africa, bordering the Agulhas Current. Three suggested nutrient sources to the bight are the Thukela River in the central region of the bight, upwelling in the northern part and a semi-permanent eddy (Durban Eddy) in the southern part. Elemental content of the various groups studied showed significantly higher values for most groups at the site near the Thukela River. C:P and N:P were highest in the southern part of the bight, and lowest near the Thukela Mouth or at Richards Bay in the north, indicating the latter were the P-richer sites. Sediment organic matter showed lowest elemental content, as expected, and zooplankton stoichiometry was highest compared to all other biotic groups. Environmental heterogeneity played a greater role in organismal C, N and P content and stoichiometry compared to phylogeny, with the exception of the differences in C:P and N:P of zooplankton. From this bight-wide study, the higher elemental content and lower ratios at the Thukela Mouth site supported previous findings of the importance of coastal nutrient sources to the bight ecosystem. Reductions in river flow for water use in the catchment areas may therefore have negative consequences for the productivity of the entire ecosystem.