A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050

Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040–2069 (“2050”) under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop’s distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14?% of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21?% of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80?% of crops would be impacted in more than 60?% of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides; likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts; niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas; changes in prevalence of pests and diseases; and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallholders. There is, however, still time to change the current levels of vulnerability if a multidisciplinary focus (i.e., agronomic, economic, and social) in vulnerable sectors is undertaken. Each sub-sector and the Government need to invest in: (1) data collection, (2) detailed, regionally-based impact assessments, (3) research and development, and (4) extension and technology transfer. Support to vulnerable smallholders should be given by the state in the form of agricultural insurance systems contextualized under the phenomenon of climate change. A national coordination scheme led by (but not restricted to) the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) with the contributions of national and international institutions is needed to address agricultural adaptation.     

Re-interpretation of zircon date in a carbonatite dyke at the Bayan Obo giant REE-Fe-Nb deposit,China

Recent ce-valuation of the dating of the carbonatite dykes associated with the REE-Re-Nb giant deposit at Bayan Obo has     

International borders, ground water flow, and hydroschizophrenia

A substantial body of research has been conducted on transboundary water, transboundary water law, and the mitigation of transboundary water conflict. However, most of this work has focused primarily on surface water supplies. While it is well understood that aquifers cross international boundaries and that the base flow of international river systems is often derived in part from ground water, transboundary ground water and surface water systems are usually managed under different regimes, resulting in what has been described as "hydroschizophrenia." Adding to the problem, the hydrologic relationships between surface and ground water supplies are only known at a reconnaissance level in even the most studied international basins, and thus even basic questions regarding the territorial sovereignty of ground water resources often remain unaddressed or even unasked. Despite the tensions inherent in the international setting, riparian nations have shown tremendous creativity in approaching regional development, often through preventive diplomacy, and the creation of "baskets of benefits," which allow for positive-sum, integrative allocations of joint gains. In contrast to the notion of imminent water wars, the history of hydropolitical relations worldwide has been overwhelmingly cooperative. Limited ground water management in the international arena, coupled with the fact that few states or countries regulate the use of ground water, begs the question: will international borders serve as boundaries for increased "flows" of hydrologic information and communication to maintain strategic aquifers, or will increased competition for shared ground water resources lead to the potential loss of strategic aquifers and "no flows" for both ground water users?     

On the redshift cut-off for steep-spectrum radio sources

We use three samples (3CRR, 6CE and 6C*) selected at low radio frequency to constrain the cosmic evolution in the radio luminosity function (RLF) for the 'most luminous' steep-spectrum radio sources. Though intrinsically rare, such sources give the largest possible baseline in redshift for the complete flux-density-limited samples currently available. Using parametric models to describe the RLF, incorporating distributions in radio spectral shape and linear size, as well as the usual luminosity and redshift, we find that the data are consistent with a constant comoving space density between     and     . We find that this model is favoured over a model with similar evolutionary behaviour to that of optically selected quasars (i.e., a roughly Gaussian distribution in redshift) with probability ratios of     and     for spatially flat cosmologies with     and     respectively. Within the uncertainties, this evolutionary behaviour may be reconciled with the shallow decline preferred for the comoving space density of flat-spectrum sources by Dunlop & Peacock and Jarvis & Rawlings, in line with the expectations of unified schemes.     

Antarctica's role in understanding long-term change in the upper atmosphere

Within the global context, Antarctica has a key role to play in understanding long-term change in the upper atmosphere, both because of its isolation from the rest of the world and because of its unique geophysical attributes. Antarctic upper atmosphere data can provide global change observations regarding the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere and magnetosphere. It will not only provide trend estimates but, just as importantly, it will define the background variability which exists in the upper atmosphere and against which these trends must be resolved. Upper atmospheric change can be driven both from within the Earth's near environment primarily through changing atmospheric composition, dynamics or geomagnetic field, or it can be driven externally, predominantly by the Sun. Recent observations are discussed in the light of increasing interest in global change issues and sun-weather relationships.     

Further Characterisation of the 91500 Zircon Crystal

This paper reports the results from a second characterisation of the 91500 zircon, including data from electron probe microanalysis, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS), secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and laser fluorination analyses. The focus of this initiative was to establish the suitability of this large single zircon crystal for calibrating in situ analyses of the rare earth elements and oxygen isotopes, as well as to provide working values for key geochemical systems. In addition to extensive testing of the chemical and structural homogeneity of this sample, the occurrence of banding in 91500 in both backscattered electron and cathodoluminescence images is described in detail. Blind intercomparison data reported by both LA-ICP-MS and SIMS laboratories indicate that only small systematic differences exist between the data sets provided by these two techniques. Furthermore, the use of NIST SRM 610 glass as the calibrant for SIMS analyses was found to introduce little or no systematic error into the results for zircon. Based on both laser fluorination and SIMS data, zircon 91500 seems to be very well suited for calibrating in situ oxygen isotopic analyses.     

Rural industrialization, 'quality' and service: some findings from South Warwickshire and North Devon

Studies of UK rural industrialization have traditionally sought to explain the success of rural SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) in terms of their capacity for innovative or enterprising behaviour. In turn, this has led researchers to focus their attention on the material aspects of competitive behaviour, particularly those connected to technology and technological exploitation, at the expense of more intangible aspects such as the advantages gained from novel working practices and marketing strategies. In particular, the notion of 'quality' as a determinant of competitive behaviour, an idea gaining increased emphasis within literature concerning rural SMEs in the food, farming and craft sectors, has been neglected in wider studies of rural industrialization. However, this paper contends that both 'formal' and 'informal' constructions of quality are significant factors in the success of manufacturers outside these specific sectors.