新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探

从新疆地区地震活动性、灾害背景及区域协同联动应急模式出发,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性及区域特性等原则的基础上,采用层次分析法建立了县级行政单元的地震应急能力评价指标体系;继而建立了基于基础设施条件、基础人力物力财力、(县级)专项能力和专项经验及基础环境背景4个一类指标集的县(市)绝对地震应急能力综合评价模型,并根据新疆地区4类人员问卷调查资料,计算和分析了样本支持条件下各指标的权重及结果,将其应用在新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力等级划分中。结果表明,地震应急能力的空间分布格局的产生与区域经济发展水平和地理位置等方面所具备的优势是相适应的,安居富民工程对提升区域地震应急能力发挥了重要作用,少数民族聚集区应急能力有待加强,寒旱、高海拔地区等特殊地理因素影响不可忽视。     

The evolution characteristics of positive and negative earthquakes before strong quakes in Kanto area and the Hyugo earthquake in Japan

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钟祥地震台面波震级测定

整理钟祥地震台2012年至2016年6月全球M_S≥6地震目录,与中国地震台网中心发布的面波震级进行对比分析,统计发现,该地震台面波震级误差主要集中在-1.0—+0.5,为此分析误差存在的原因,并根据实际情况给出解决办法。     

新疆破坏性地震损失“盲估”方法

通过总结新疆近年来的震害预测研究成果和震害损失评估工作的实践,给出了震后损失快速评估方法－“盲估”方法。提出今后震灾评估的发展方向是建立震后趋势快速判定计算机管理系统。     

中国大陆背景噪声强度时空分布

使用中国地震台网888个宽频带地震台站2010年1月至2011年6月记录的连续波形垂直向分量, 进行了中国大陆背景噪声强度时空分布研究, 得到了中国大陆周期为10 s的背景噪声强度的时空分布图像。 背景噪声强度的时间分布具有一定的季节性和周期性变化特征, 研究表明2011年1~3月间的背景噪声强度最高。 背景噪声强度空间分布显示, 中国大陆背景噪声强度呈现明显的分区特性, 其分布与地质结构无明显相关性, 表明背景噪声场的强度高于场地效应。 其中, 东南沿海地区的背景噪声强度最大, 向内陆地区逐渐衰减, 至青藏高原地区背景噪声强度减至最小。 这种方向性的强度分布很可能与菲律宾和太平洋的潮汐等因素有关, 受印度洋的影响不大; 而到新疆地区, 背景噪声的强度又有一定程度增加, 表明这一地区的背景噪声主要不是来源于中国东南海域, 而是来自于欧亚大陆内部。 本研究得到的背景噪声强度可以为多个地区的微震强度提供基础数据资料, 也可以为背景噪声互相关的地震学研究提供参考。 更为重要的是, 还可以为基于背景噪声提取面波衰减研究提供基础数据, 进而实现从背景噪声中提取面波衰减。     

Numerical simulation of the seismic behavior of self-centering steel beam-column connections with bottom flange friction devices

A new type of steel moment resisting frame with bottom ? ange friction devices (BFFDs) has been developed to provide self-centering capacity and energy dissipation, and to reduce permanent deformations under earthquakes. This paper presents a numerical simulation of self-centering beam-column connections with BFFDs, in which the gap opening /closing at the beam-column interfaces is simulated by using pairs of zero-length elements with compression-only material properties, and the energy dissipation due to f...     

强震作用下超高桥墩动力稳定性理论研究

根据平截面假定,考虑超高桥墩大位移变形产生的几何非线性影响,建立超高桥墩的振动控制微分方程,利用变步长的龙格-库塔法进行求解,结合B-R运动判定准则,对超高桥墩在地震作用下的动力失稳机理进行研究。理论分析表明,超高桥墩的动力失稳与桥墩的几何尺寸、质量分布、边界条件有密切关系;桥墩动力失稳时刻随地震波加速度峰值的增大而减小;失稳时刻与失稳加速度荷载有对应关系。算例结果表明:本文方法正确,利用本文理论能够准确计算超高桥墩的失稳时刻及失稳加速度,对超高桥墩动力失稳的理论分析及工程实践有重要指导意义。     

短期重现性地磁日变化感应电流集中分布与地震关系初步研究

通过分析台站之间地磁垂直分量日变化相关性,研究中国大陆南北带地区90°E～110°E,2009～2018年地磁日变化感应电流线状集中分布现象与M_S≥6.0地震关系。统计发现,我国每月平均出现约2次感应电流集中分布现象,且10天左右内有原地重复出现现象——感应电流集中分布重叠异常,原地重现的集中分布感应电流日期间隔一般在10天左右以内,原地重现日期一般不连续,重现次数一般仅有2次。研究发现,我国南北带2009～2018年共出现重叠异常23次,20次重叠异常出现后18个月内重叠段发生M_S≥6.0地震,对应率高达87%,地震基本发生在重叠段端部250km以内,重叠段发生2次M_S≥6.0地震的比例较低,约35%;重叠段2个端部均发生M_S≥6.0地震的比例极小,仅约9%。部分重叠段走向与已经发现的上地幔和地壳高导带埋深走向基本一致,推测重叠异常发生在上地幔和地壳高导带附近,是来自上地幔和地壳内高导带附近的地震异常信息。目前已知,中国大陆强地震主要发生在上地幔高导层的隆起区一带及其壳内高导层发育地区,深部电性测深结果表明,大震易于发生在电导率急剧变化的梯度带,但这些地区何时发生地震还未得知,本文发现的重叠异常解释了这些地区1～2年内是否发生地震这一问题。     

Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP

On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification.     

The structural characteristics,age of origin,and tectonic attribute of the Erguna Fault,NE China

The Erguna Fault runs along the east bank of the Erguna River in NE China and is a large-scale ductile shear zone comprising granitic mylonites. This paper reports on the geometry, kinematic indicators, and 40Ar/39 Ar biotite ages of the granitic mylonites, to constrain the structural characteristics, forming age, and tectonic attribute of the Erguna ductile shear zone. The zone strikes NE and records a top-to-the-NW sense of shear. A mylonitic foliation and stretching lineation are well developed in the mylonites, which are classified as S-L tectonites. Logarithmic flinn parameters(1.18–2.35) indicate elongate strain which approximates to plane strain. Kinematic vorticity numbers are 0.42–0.92 and 0.48–0.94, based on the polar Mohr diagram and the oblique foliation in quartz ribbons, respectively, suggesting that the ductile shear zone formed under general shear, or a combination of simple and pure shear. According to finite strain and kinematic vorticity analyses, the Erguna Fault is a lengthening-thinning ductile shear zone that formed by extension. The deformation behavior of minerals in the mylonites indicates that the fault was the site of three stages of deformation: an initial stage of middle- to deep-level, high-temperature shear, a post-stress recovery phase of high-temperature static recrystallization, and a final phase of low-temperature uplift and cooling. The 40Ar/39 Ar plateau ages of biotite from the granitic mylonites are 106.16 ± 0.79 and 111.55 ± 0.67 Ma, which constrain the timing of low-temperature uplift and cooling but are younger than the ages of metamorphic core complexes(MCCs) in the Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia region. Using measured geological sections, microtectonics, estimates of finite strain and kinematic vorticity, and regional correlations and geochronology, we conclude that the Erguna Fault is an Early Cretaceous, NNE-trending, large-scale, sub-horizontal, and extensional ductile shear zone. It shares a similar tectonic background with the MCCs, volcanic fault basins, and large and super-large volcanic-hydrothermal deposits in Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia and the western Great Khingan Mountains, all of which are the result of overthickened crust that gravitationally collapsed and extended in the Early Cretaceous after plate collision along the present-day Sino-Russia-Mongolia border tract.