汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示

两次特大地震前在不同时段、 不同范围出现了多项相似的地震活动性异常, 它们对预测特大地震具有一定意义: ① 两次大震前10余年, 青藏块体同期出现了两个规模巨大的中强以上地震增强区, 两次大地震发生在增强区内的空区里; ② 两次巨大地震前数年, 形成规模巨大的中强地震活动带, 地震发生在两个条带间的平静区里; 同期形成中等以上地震活动环, 其内部的地震频度、 加卸载响应比及非均匀度等参数甚高, 且随时间而变化, 这可作为孕震进入中期的信号; ③ 两次大震前的震群、 震丛均很显著, 昆仑山口西地震前四个显著震丛环绕震中四周分布, 汶川地震前震群在震中周围形成包围圈, 它们应视为大震孕育进入后期的显示; ④ 大震前数月, 靠近发震断裂带发生少量中小地震或少见的震群。 汶川地震前10个月, 龙门山断裂带北部发生两次青川4级多地震和松潘4.3级地震, 南部康定附近发生3次4级以上地震。 紫坪铺水库区小震群于震前3个月活动十分强烈。 昆仑山口西地震前约1年青海兴海发生6.6级地震, 昆仑山口西发生5.1级地震, 该地震距离8.1级地震约30 km。这些特征给我们的重要启示是: ① 特大地震前出现的前兆时空特征与常见的中强地震差异很大, 现行的监测预报体制(分省分片负责)与特大地震前兆不相适应; ② 特大地震的预测预报不能单纯依靠地震前兆, 必须与地质构造及深部探测紧密结合起来; ③ 特大地震的预测预报应有新的预报战略、 观测系统与组织机构相适应。     

南海北缘海啸波高对潜在海啸源震级偏差的敏感性

本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域.     

引潮力与显著地震关系及其在短临预报中的应用

对引潮力与显著地震的关系及其在地震短临预报中的应用作了较系统的总结, 进一步完善了笔者提出的基于显著地震特点的地震短临预报方法, 简称CH方法。 1997年至2003年5月应用CH方法所作的全部21次地震短临预报中, 与地震实况比较, 较好和做了一定程度预报的共有12次, 占57%, 这表明用于地震短临预报的CH方法具有较好的效能。     

Content and distribution of trace metals in surface sediments from the northern Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and adjacent Arctic areas

Concentrations of trace metals (Zn, Cr, Cu, V, Cd and Pb), total organic carbon (TOC), black carbon (BC) and their granulometry were examined in 25 surface sediment samples from the northern Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and adjacent areas. Trace metal concentrations in the sediments varied from 21.06-168.21 mg kg(-1) for Zn, 8.91-46.94 mg kg(-1) for Cr, 2.69-49.39 mg kg(-1) for Cu, 32.46-185.54 mg kg(-1) for V, 0.09-0.92 mg kg(-1) for Cd, and 0.95-15.25 mg kg(-1) for Pb. The geoaccumulation index (Igeo) indicated that trace metal contamination (Zn and Cd) existed in some stations of the study area. The distribution of grain size plays an important role in influencing the distribution of trace metals (Zn, Cr, Cu, V, and Pb) in sediments from the Chukchi Sea and adjacent areas.     

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。     

Restoration of oiled mussel beds in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Natural loss of hydrocarbons was often low from mussel (Mytilus trossulus) beds (which were typically not cleaned after the Exxon Valdez oil spill), thus this habitat remained a long-term source of oil. Consequently, experimental restoration of nine contaminated beds was attempted in 1994; mussels were removed, contaminated surface sediment was replaced (33 metric tons), and original mussels were returned. Hydrocarbon concentrations and mussel populations were monitored for 5 years thereafter. Post-restoration mussel population fluctuations were indistinguishable from regional changes. Increased short-term oil loss was apparent, but long-term (5 year) improvement was equivocal and difficult to distinguish from natural losses. By 1999, oil concentrations in mussels were typically at baseline levels in restored and oiled reference beds; concentrations in replaced sediment were elevated in one third of restored beds, indicating recontamination from underlying or surrounding sediment. Our results suggest mussel relocation is feasible but suggest oil might more effectively be removed from sediment mechanically or chemically than manually.     

Hepatic biomarkers of sediment-associated pollution in juvenile turbot, Scophthalmus maximus L

Hatchery-reared turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) were exposed for 3 weeks, under laboratory conditions, to sediment collected from polluted sites in Cork Harbour and a reference site at Ballymacoda, Co. Cork, Ireland. The potential of surficial sediment for inducing hepatic biomarkers was assessed at two levels of biological organisation: expression of cytochrome P450 [Western blotting analysis and 7-ethoxy-resorufin O-dealkylase (EROD), 7-benzoxy resorufin O-dealkylase (BROD), 7-methoxy resorufin O-dealkylase (MROD), 7-pentoxy-resorufin O-dealkylase (PROD) activities] and DNA integrity (Comet assay). Positive controls were generated, either by exposing turbot to cadmium chloride-spiked seawater (Comet assay) or to beta-naphthaflavone by intraperitoneal injection (cytochrome P450 induction). The induction of cytochrome P450 activity (EROD, MROD and PROD) in animals following a 7-day exposure to contaminated sediments was significantly higher than those exposed to reference site sediment and remained elevated thereafter; BROD was not induced. DNA single-strand breaks were also significantly higher following exposure to contaminated sediments throughout the experiment. Although no direct correlation between induction of alkoxyresorufin O-dealkylase activities and a particular chemical class was established, the induction of MROD and PROD activities in fish exposed to sediments containing complex contaminant mixtures, appeared to be more sensitive than conventional EROD activity assays. We conclude from the present laboratory study that S. maximus is a suitable sentinel species for the assessment of moderately contaminated sediments and therefore allows for the further development of this model for future, ecologically relevant, field studies.