Combination of Dependent Realizations Within the Gradual Deformation Method

Gradual deformation is a parameterization method that reduces considerably the unknown parameter space of stochastic models. This method can be used in an iterative optimization procedure for constraining stochastic simulations to data that are complex, nonanalytical functions of the simulated variables. This method is based on the fact that linear combinations of multi-Gaussian random functions remain multi-Gaussian random functions. During the past few years, we developed the gradual deformation method by combining independent realizations. This paper investigates another alternative: the combination of dependent realizations. One of our motivations for combining dependent realizations was to improve the numerical stability of the gradual deformation method. Because of limitations both in the size of simulation grids and in the precision of simulation algorithms, numerical realizations of a stochastic model are never perfectly independent. It was shown that the accumulation of very small dependence between realizations might result in significant structural drift from the initial stochastic model. From the combination of random functions whose covariance and cross-covariance are proportional to each other, we derived a new formulation of the gradual deformation method that can explicitly take into account the numerical dependence between realizations. This new formulation allows us to reduce the structural deterioration during the iterative optimization. The problem of combining dependent realizations also arises when deforming conditional realizations of a stochastic model. As opposed to the combination of independent realizations, combining conditional realizations avoids the additional conditioning step during the optimization process. However, this procedure is limited to global deformations with fixed structural parameters.     

A Shear Model Accounting Scale Effect in Rock Joints Behavior

Understanding the scale effect on the mechanical behavior of a single rock joint is still very important in rock engineering. Rock joints can be classified into three different categories depending on their scale: the “micro scale” which is the scale of the asperities; the “meso scale” is the scale of the specimens tested in laboratory; and the “macro scale” which is the scale of the rock mass. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective way to model rock joints at both the meso and macro scale. An original constitutive mechanical model, in which parameters are deduced from experimental results, has been developed. This model is then extended to simulate the discontinuities occurring at a larger size. At the macro scale, the constitutive modeling was carried out for both small and large relative displacements. Large displacements lead to substantial changes in dilation. For both cases, the peak shear stress vanishes for joints longer than 2 m.     

Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed

Future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are usually used for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the existing GCMs have only limited ability to simulate the complex and local climate features, such as precipitation. Furthermore, the outputs provided by GCMs are too coarse to be useful in hydrologic impact assessment models, as these models require information at much finer scales. Therefore, downscaling of GCM outputs is usually employed to provide fine-resolution information required for impact models. Among the downscaling techniques based on statistical principles, multiple regression and weather generator are considered to be more popular, as they are computationally less demanding than the other downscaling techniques. In the present study, the performances of a multiple regression model (called SDSM) and a weather generator (called LARS-WG) are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the frequency of extreme precipitation events of current climate and downscaling of future extreme events. Areal average daily precipitation data of the Clutha watershed located in South Island, New Zealand, are used as baseline data in the analysis. Precipitation frequency analysis is performed by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the observed, the SDSM simulated/downscaled, and the LARS-WG simulated/downscaled annual maximum (AM) series. The computations are performed for five return periods: 10-, 20-, 40-, 50- and 100-year. The present results illustrate that both models have similar and good ability to simulate the extreme precipitation events and, thus, can be adopted with confidence for climate change impact studies of this nature.     

North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) – an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition

Summary An upper level atmospheric teleconnection between grid points: 0°, 55° N; 10° E, 55° N (North Sea) and 50° E, 45° N; 60° E, 45° N (northern Caspian) was identified. This teleconnection, referred as the North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) is evident at the 500 hPa level. The NCP is more pronounced during winter and the transitional seasons. An index (NCPI) measures the geopotential heights differences between the two poles of the NCP. Time series of the NCPI are presented and analysed. Except for September, no significant temporal trends were found. Negative and positive phases of the NCP (NCP(−) and NCP(+), respectively) were defined using standardized scores. A classification of all months into NCP(−), NCP(+) or normal conditions during the analysis period (1958–1998) was prepared and analysed. No significant correlation was found between the NCPI and the NAO index. The anomalous circulation during either NCP(−) or NCP(+) conditions is defined and its possible impact on the regional climate is discussed. Preliminary results show below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the Balkans and the Middle East during NCP(+), and the opposite for NCP(−). Received March 8, 2001 Revised July 3, 2001     

绿潮迁移过程中环境要素与浒苔藻体生物学特征的相关性分析

浒苔(Ulva prolifera)引起的大规模绿潮起源于黄海南部,在向北迁移过程中生物量迅速扩增,在海州湾附近(35°N左右)迅速增加达到峰值.在绿潮漂浮迁移过程中,海水表层温度、溶解无机氮(dissolved inorganic nitrogen,DIN)和磷酸盐(PO43--P)变化显著.本文以迁移过程中的浒苔为...     

The U-Pb Geochronology and Lu-Hf Isotope Compositions of Detrital Zircons from the Nanhua Group of the Longsheng Region, South China and their Implications for Pan-African Events

It is unclear whether the South China blocks have an affinity with continental Gondwana due to a lack of direct Pan-African magmatic and metamorphic features. In this study, we conducted U-Pb geochronological and Lu-Hf isotopic analyses for detrital zircons from a sandstone of the Chang’an Formation of the Nanhua Group in the Longsheng region of northern Guangxi, with the aim of constraining the timing of sedimentation and information as to its source, as well as seeking evidence for Pan-African events in the South China blocks. The results show that the ages of detrital zircons peaked at 654.7 ± 6.2 Ma, 773.2 ± 4.1 Ma and 821.9 ± 6.5 Ma, with some at 920–870 Ma; the youngest age indicates the existence of the Pan-African thermal event. The εHf(t) and TDM2 values demonstrate that the study area has experienced three stages of crustal growth at 3.0–2.4 Ga, 2.1–1.5 Ga and 1.3–0.9 Ga. With intensively distributed Neoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic and granitic plutons emplaced at 830–810 Ma along the southwestern section of the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt and positive εHf(t) values from a large group of zircon grains, it is proposed that the sediments of the Chang’an Formation (of Nanhua Group) were largely sourced from the southeastern margin of the Yangtze block. Comparison with the zircon age spectra of the Cathaysian block shows that about 79% of the Pan-African aged detrital zircon grains that have TDM2 = 1352–1031 Ma and εHf(t) = 3.68–8.79, were sourced from the recycled Grenvillian crust of the Cathaysian block, suggesting that the Cathaysian block had a close connection with Gondwana.     

Effects of bottom sediments on the survival of Enterobacter aerogenes in seawater

The survival of the coliform bacterium Enterobacter aerogenes in seawater was greatly affected by the underlying bottom sediments. The presence of sediments which contained higher concentrations of organic nutrients than the overlaying seawater prolonged the survival and even enabled growth of the bacterial cells. Results obtained from chemical analysis indicated that sediments of fine-grained, silt-clay type contained highest amounts of organic nutrients as compared with sediments with larger particle sizes such as silt and sand grains. Thus, nutrient contents of the sediments were found to be inversely proportional to sediment particle size. The degree of prolonged survival of E. aerogenes was also found to be inversely proportional to the size of the sediment particles presented. Release of the bound nutrients which became available to cells of E. aerogenes from sediments by action of waves and human activities can explain, at least in part, why high counts of coliform bacteria are obtained in coastal and beach waters.     

Melting of Mg2GeO4 under pressure

Melting point of germanate forsterite, Mg₂GeO₄, was raised by compression at the rate of 30°C/GPa. The triple point, at which three phases of olivine- and spinel-type solids and liquid coexisted, was fixed at 1950°C and 3.5GPa. Wen these results are combined with the thermodynamical data of forsterite, Mg₂SiO₄, it is estimated that the triple point of forsterite lies in a region ranging from 2700° to 3000°C in temperature and from 20 to 30GPa in pressure.     

The Variscan tectonic inheritance of the Upper Rhine Graben: evidence of reactivations in the Lias,Late Eocene–Oligocene up to the recent

Processing of gravity and magnetic maps shows that the basement of the Upper Rhine Graben area is characterized by a series of NE–SW trending discontinuities and elongated structures, identified in outcrops in the Vosges, Black Forest, and the Odenwald Mountains. They form a 40 km wide, N30–40° striking, sinistral wrench-zone that, in the Visean, shifted the Variscan and pre-Variscan structures by at least 43 km to the NE. Wrenching was associated with emplacement of several generations of plutonic bodies emplaced in the time range 340–325 Ma. The sub-vertical, NE–SW trending discontinuities in the basement acted as zones of weakness, susceptible to reactivation by subsequent tectonism. The first reactivation, marked by mineralizations and palaeomagnetic overprinting along NE–SW faults of the Vosges Mountains, results from the Liassic NW–SE extension contemporaneous with the break-up of Pangea. The major reactivation occurred during the Late Eocene N–S compression and the Early-Middle Oligocene E–W extension. The NE–SW striking basement discontinuities were successively reactivated as sinistral strike-slip faults, and as oblique normal faults. Elongated depocenters appear to form in association with reactivated Variscan wrench faults. Some of the recent earthquakes are located on NE–SW striking Variscan fault zones, and show sinistral strike-slip focal mechanisms with the same direction, suggesting also present reactivation.     

Compositional zoning of fluid inclusions in the Archaean Junction gold deposit,Western Australia: A process of fluid ‐ wall‐rock interaction?

The Junction gold deposit, in Western Australia, is an orogenic gold deposit hosted by a differentiated, iron‐rich, tholeiitic dolerite sill. Petrographic, microthermometric and laser Raman microprobe analyses of fluid inclusions from the Junction deposit indicate that three different vein systems formed at three distinct periods of geological time, and host four fluid‐inclusion populations with a wide range of compositions in the H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–NaCl ± CaCl₂ system. Pre‐shearing, pre‐gold, molybdenite‐bearing quartz veins host fluid inclusions that are characterised by relatively consistent phase ratios comprising H₂O–CO₂–CH₄ ± halite. Microthermometry suggests that these veins precipitated when a highly saline, >340°C fluid mixed with a less saline ≥150°C fluid. The syn‐gold mineralisation event is hosted within the Junction shear zone and is associated with extensive quartz‐calcite ± albite ± chlorite ± pyrrhotite veining. Fluid‐inclusion analyses indicate that gold deposition occurred during the unmixing of a 400°C, moderately saline, H₂O–CO₂ ± CH₄ fluid at pressures between 70 MPa and 440 MPa. Post‐gold quartz‐calcite‐biotite‐pyrrhotite veins occupy normal fault sets that slightly offset the Junction shear zone. Fluid inclusions in these veins are predominantly vapour rich, with CO₂?CH₄. Homogenisation temperatures indicate that the post‐gold quartz veins precipitated from a 310 ± 30°C fluid. Finally, late secondary fluid inclusions show that a <200°C, highly saline, H₂O–CaCl₂–NaCl–bearing fluid percolated along microfractures late in the deposit's history, but did not form any notable vein type. Raman spectroscopy supports the microthermometric data and reveals that CH₄–bearing fluid inclusions occur in syn‐gold quartz grains found almost exclusively at the vein margin, whereas CO₂–bearing fluid inclusions occur in quartz grains that are found toward the centre of the veins. The zonation of CO₂:CH₄ ratios, with respect to the location of fluid inclusions within the syn‐gold quartz veins, suggest that the CH₄ did not travel as part of the auriferous fluid. Fluid unmixing and post‐entrapment alteration of the syn‐gold fluid inclusions are known to have occurred, but cannot adequately account for the relatively ordered zonation of CO₂:CH₄ ratios. Instead, the late introduction of a CH₄–rich fluid into the Junction shear zone appears more likely. Alternatively, the process of CO₂ reduction to CH₄ is a viable and plausible explanation that fits the available data. The CH₄–bearing fluid inclusions occur almost exclusively at the margin of the syn‐gold quartz veins within the zone of high‐grade gold mineralisation because this is where all the criteria needed to reduce CO₂ to CH₄ were satisfied in the Junction deposit.