Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles

Ensembles of climate model simulations are required for input into probabilistic assessments of the risk of future climate change in which uncertainties are quantified. Here we document and compare aspects of climate model ensembles from the multi-model archive and from perturbed physics ensembles generated using the third version of the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3). Model-error characteristics derived from time-averaged two-dimensional fields of observed climate variables indicate that the perturbed physics approach is capable of sampling a relatively wide range of different mean climate states, consistent with simple estimates of observational uncertainty and comparable to the range of mean states sampled by the multi-model ensemble. The perturbed physics approach is also capable of sampling a relatively wide range of climate forcings and climate feedbacks under enhanced levels of greenhouse gases, again comparable with the multi-model ensemble. By examining correlations between global time-averaged measures of model error and global measures of climate change feedback strengths, we conclude that there are no simple emergent relationships between climate model errors and the magnitude of future global temperature change. Algorithms for quantifying uncertainty require the use of complex multivariate metrics for constraining projections.     

88小时:美国地质调查局国家地震信息中心对2011年3月11日Mw9.0日本地震的响应

引言 2011年3月11日日本本州岛东海岸附近海域发生的M9．0地震（Tohoku earthquake,以下称“东日本大地震”——译者注）及其引发的海啸造成数以万计的人员死亡,造成的财产损失可能超过1万亿美元,这是有历史记录以来最严重的自然灾害之一。     

The effect of impact obliquity on shock heating in planetesimal collisions

Collisions between planetesimals in the early solar system were a common and fundamental process. Most collisions occurred at an oblique incidence angle, yet the influence of impact angle on heating in collisions is not fully understood. We have conducted a series of shock physics simulations to quantify oblique heating processes, and find that both impact angle and target curvature are important in quantifying the amount of heating in a collision. We find an expression to estimate the heating in an oblique collision compared to that in a vertical incidence collision. We have used this expression to quantify heating in the Rhealsilvia‐forming impact on Vesta, and find that there is slightly more heating in a 45° impact than in a vertical impact. Finally, we apply these results to Monte Carlo simulations of collisional processes in the early solar system, and determine the overall effect of impact obliquity from the range of impacts that occurred on a meteorite parent body. For those bodies that survived 100 Myr without disruption, it is not necessary to account for the natural variation in impact angle, as the amount of heating was well approximated by a fixed impact angle of 45°. However, for disruptive impacts, this natural variation in impact angle should be accounted for, as around a quarter of bodies were globally heated by at least 100 K in a variable‐angle model, an order of magnitude higher than under an assumption of a fixed angle of 45°.     

Citation analysis for the 1995 FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries

This paper presents the results of a 2008 citation-analysis study that was undertaken for the 1995 FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and its associated instruments. The overall objective of this study was to contribute towards a strategy for improved dissemination, awareness raising and communication about the Code and its implementation. For each citation, additional information was collected to identify patterns by year, topic, author affiliation or type of literature. Results support previously suggested anecdotal patterns, in particular related to the diversity of publishing outlets and the high proportion of fisheries information published as grey literature. The results also point to areas of concern for long-term preservation and dissemination of fisheries information.     

The Evolution of Brightest Cluster Galaxies

In this contribution we review the properties of Brightest Cluster Galaxies (BCGs) and discuss the impact that X-ray cluster selection is having on their use as cosmological probes. BCGs form a unique galaxy population. They are located near the gravitational centre of galaxy clusters and are the most massive galaxies in the universe, being some 10 times more luminous than L* systems. Historically, BCGs have been credited with small intrinsic dispersion in their absolute magnitudes (Δ≃0.2–0.3 mag) and used as standard candles to constrain the cosmological parameters. Although indirect signs of mass accretion out to z≃1 have been observed, uncovering their full evolutionary picture has remained an elusive goal. Studies of BCGs based on serendipitiously discovered X-ray cluster samples, particularly from ROSAT, provide large numbers of unbiased clusters at z≤1. Furthermore X-ray emission guarantees the presence of a large gravitationally bound potential well and the X-ray information can be used to locate the centroids of clusters, aiding the identification of the BCG. We show that this has important consequences for studies of distance determination and large-scale streaming flows based on the optical properties of BCGs. Recent results based on X-ray selected clusters show large differences in near-IR BCG properties with their cluster environment; such that those in clusters with L _x≥1.9×10⁴⁴erg s^-1 are brighter and more uniform than those in their low-L _x counterparts. The BCGs in highL _x systems show no evidence of having undergone mass growth, whereas those in low L _x systems show a widerrange of evolution, with evidence that some have grown by a factor of 4 ormore since z≃1. These results are a direct indication of howa single homogeneous population of galaxies evolves and are a challenge to simple semi-analytical hierarchical models. If future observations at high redshift are to seriously challenge theory then better predictions of the evolutionary process are required. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: galaxy luminosity functions per spectral type

We calculate the optical b _J luminosity function (LF) of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) for different subsets defined by their spectral properties. These spectrally selected subsets are defined using a new parameter, η , which is a linear combination of the first two projections derived from a Principal Component Analysis. This parameter η identifies the average emission- and absorption-line strength in the galaxy rest frame spectrum, and hence is a useful indicator of the present star formation. We use a total of 75 000 galaxies in our calculations, chosen from a sample of high signal-to-noise ratio, low-redshift galaxies observed before 2001 January. We find that there is a systematic steepening of the faint-end slope ( α ) as one moves from passive  ( α =-0.54)  to active  ( α =-1.50)  star-forming galaxies, and that there is also a corresponding faintening of the rest frame characteristic magnitude   M *-5 log₁₀( h )  (from −19.6 to −19.2). We also show that the Schechter function provides a poor fit to the quiescent (Type 1) LF for very faint galaxies  [ M _{b J}-5 log₁₀( h )  fainter than −16.0], perhaps suggesting the presence of a significant dwarf population. The LFs presented here give a precise confirmation of the trends seen previously in a much smaller preliminary 2dFGRS sample, and in other surveys. We also present a new procedure for determining self-consistent k -corrections, and investigate possible fibre-aperture biases.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type

We investigate the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type using the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS). Spectral types are assigned using the principal-component analysis of Madgwick et al. We divide the sample into two broad spectral classes: galaxies with strong emission lines ('late types') and more quiescent galaxies ('early types'). We measure the clustering in real space, free from any distortion of the clustering pattern owing to peculiar velocities, for a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation functions of both spectral types are well described by a power law for transverse separations in the range  2<( σ / h ^-1 Mpc)<15  , with a marginally steeper slope for early types than late types. Both early and late types have approximately the same dependence of clustering strength on luminosity, with the clustering amplitude increasing by a factor of ∼2.5 between L * and 4 L *. At all luminosities, however, the correlation function amplitude for the early types is ∼50 per cent higher than that of the late types. These results support the view that luminosity, and not type, is the dominant factor in determining how the clustering strength of the whole galaxy population varies with luminosity.