On the reliability of millennial reconstructions of variations in surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

The reliability of the recently published reconstructions of the surface air temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 yr is discussed. For this purpose, the power spectra of the two best known reconstructions (Mann et al.[10–12] and Moberg et al. [13]) are calculated and compared to the spectra of the 150-yr temperature series based on instrumental observations and simulated 1000-yr series. It is found that the Mann et al. reconstruction drastically underestimates low-frequency temperature variations, whereas the Moberg et al. reconstruction reproduces them much better, although with a certain underestimation rather than overestimation, as Mann et al. have recently argued.     

Onshore sandbar migration at Tairua Beach (New Zealand): Numerical simulations and field measurements

We observed the onshore migration (3.5 m/day) of a nearshore sandbar at Tairua Beach, New Zealand during 4 days of low-energy wave conditions. The morphological observations, together with concurrent measurements of waves and suspended sediment concentrations, were used to test a coupled, wave-averaged, cross-shore model. Because of the coarse bed material and the relatively low-energy conditions, the contribution of the suspended transport to the total transport was predicted and observed to be negligible. The model predicted the bar to move onshore because of the feedback between near-bed wave skewness, bedload, and the sandbar under weakly to non-breaking conditions at high tide. The predicted bathymetric evolution contrasts, however, with the observations that the bar migrated onshore predominantly at low tide. Also, the model flattened the bar, while in the observations the sandbar retained its steep landward-facing flank. A comparison between available observations and numerical simulations suggests that onshore propagating surf zone bores in very shallow water (< 0.25 m) may have been responsible for most of the observed bar behaviour. These processes are missing from the applied model and, given that the observed conditions can be considered typical of very shallow sandbars, highlight a priority for further field study and model development. The possibility that the excess water transported by the bores across the bar was channelled alongshore to near-by rip-channels further implies that traditional cross-shore measures to judge the applicability of a cross-shore morphodynamic model may be misleading.     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Temporal and cross-shelf distribution of ichthyoplankton in the central Cantabrian Sea

Environmental variables have been measured and sampling for ichthyoplankton has been conducted monthly, since April 2001, at three stations, located at the inner (1), middle (2) and outer (3) shelf of the central Cantabrian Sea. This paper presents the results of the study of the ichthyoplankton collected from July 2001 to June 2004. Fish larvae from 99 species, belonging to 37 families, were identified. Families with higher number of species were Gadidae, Sparidae and Labridae. The larval fish assemblage was dominated by pelagic fish species, with Sardina pilchardus, as the most abundant. There was a pronounced spring peak in larval abundance, dominated by S. pilchardus. A smaller peak, dominated by S. pilchardus and Micromesistius poutassou, was recorded in late winter at Stns 2 and 3. This pattern was evident for the three-year study. Results also indicate that this study was limited to the coastal larval fish assemblage inhabiting the central Cantabrian Sea shelf. This assemblage was temporally structured into other three assemblages: winter, late winter–spring and summer–autumn. Temperature was apparently a key factor in larval fish assemblage succession. In a scenario of global warming, this study constitutes a basis to evaluating the ongoing changes in the pelagic coastal ecosystem of the central Cantabrian Sea.     

The curse of physiology—challenges and opportunities in the interpretation of geochemical data from mollusk shells

Physiology corrupts geochemical records of mollusk shells in many ways, e.g., by actively controlling the incorporation of trace elements in the skeleton. However, the effects of variable biomineralization rates and growth cessation have largely remained unconsidered. Mediated by endogenous timekeeping mechanisms, mollusks stop growing skeletal material on a regular basis ranging from ultradian to annual timescales. During growth cessation, the shells do not record environmental conditions. Shell growth also stops when environmental conditions are beyond the physiological tolerance of the organism, e.g., above and below genetically determined, species-specific thermal extremes where shell growth slows and eventually ceases. Such growth disruptions can occur at non-periodic time intervals. Due to growth retardations and halts, proxy records of mollusk shells are thus incomplete, and reconstructed environmental amplitudes prone to truncation. Furthermore, environmental records are biased toward the physiological optimum of the animal. Favorable environmental conditions increase shell growth, whereas adverse environmental conditions result in reduced shell production and lowered overall metabolism. Not least, the duration of the growing season and overall growth rate decrease as the mollusk grows older. Mathematical modeling approaches can significantly improve proxy records obtained from mollusk shells. For example, if the duration of growth cessation is known, it may be possible to model the missing environmental record. It is also fairly easy to account for age-related growth trends, or variable time-averaging in different portions of the shell. However, a major premise for a reliable interpretation of proxy records from a mollusk shell or other organisms secreting biogenic hard parts is a proper understanding of the physiology, and of course, a high-resolution record of the many different environmental factors that may influence physiology and shell growth. The present paper reviews examples from the literature, and unpublished data on how physiology influences geochemical proxy records from mollusk shells, and presents methods how to eliminate such adverse effects.     

Characteristics of bottom dissolved oxygen in Long Island Sound,New York

The variability of bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) in Long Island Sound, New York, is examined using water quality monitoring data collected by the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection from 1995 to 2004. Self-organizing map analysis indicates that hypoxia always occurs in the Narrows during summer and less frequently in the Western and the Central Basins. The primary factor controlling the bottom DO, changes spatially and temporally. For non-summer seasons, the levels of bottom DO are strongly associated with water temperature, which means DO availability is primarily driven by solubility. During summer, stratification intensifies under weak wind conditions and bottom DO starts to decrease and deviate from the saturation level except for stations in the Eastern Basin. For the westernmost and shallow (<15 m) stations, bottom DO is correlated with the density stratification (represented by difference between surface and bottom density). In contrast, at deep stations (>20 m), the relationship between oxygen depletion and stratification is not significant. For stations located west of the Central Basin, bottom DO continues to decrease during summer until it reaches its minimum when bottom temperature is around 19–20 °C. In most cases the recovery to saturation levels at the beginning of fall is fast, but not necessarily associated with increased wind mixing. Therefore, we propose that the DO recovery may be a manifestation of either the reduced microbial activity combined with the depletion of organic matter or horizontal exchange. Hypoxic volume is weakly correlated to the summer wind speed, spring total nitrogen, spring chlorophyll a, and maximum river discharge. When all variables are combined in a multiple regression, the coefficient of determination (r²) is 0.92. Surprisingly, the weakest variable is the total nitrogen, because when it is excluded the coefficient r² only drops to 0.84. Spring bloom seems to be an important source of organic carbon pool and biological uptake of oxygen plays a more crucial role in the seasonal evolution of bottom DO than previously thought. Our results indicate that the reassessment phase of the Long Island Sound Total Maximum Daily Load policy on nitrogen loading will most likely fail, because it ignores the contributions of the spring organic carbon pool and river discharge. Also, it is questionable whether the goal of 58.5% anthropogenic nitrogen load reduction is enough.     

Response of Nereis diversicolor population (Polychaeta,Nereididae) to the pollution impact – Authie and Seine estuaries (France)

A survey within the French National Programme of Ecotoxicology was carried out in 2002, 2003 and 2004 to study the response of Nereis diversicolor populations (Polychaeta, Nereididae) to the impact of pollution in the Authie estuary (non-contaminated site) and in the Seine estuary (contaminated site). In the period studied, the density varied from 672 ind. m⁻² to 3584 ind. m⁻² in the Authie estuary and from 80 ind. m⁻² to 920 ind. m⁻² in the Seine estuary. Biomass varied from 3.94 g m⁻² (dry weight) in February 2004 to 38.0 g m⁻² in August 2003 in the Authie estuary and from 3.4 g m⁻² in February 2002 to 0.6 g m⁻² in February 2004 in the Seine estuary. Density and biomass of the populations of N. diversicolor were consistently lower in the Seine estuary than in the Authie estuary. Size frequency histograms permit the analysis of the cohorts as well as the elaboration of the growth curves. For the individuals from the Authie estuary, the relation between dry weight (DW) and length L3 (prostomium, peristomium and chaetiger 1) was DW = 4.2205 L3^2.9832. For those from the Seine estuary, the relation between dry weight and L3 was DW = 0.4697e^1.7209L3. The individuals of N. diversicolor should belong to eight cohorts in Authie estuary (two cohorts each year) instead of six cohorts for those from the Seine estuary. These differences can be attributed to the effect of pollution on the population of N. diversicolor.     

Geoacoustic Inversions of Horizontal and Vertical Line Array Acoustic Data From a Surface Ship Source of Opportunity

The application of an inversion methodology produces the first demonstration of a simultaneous solution for geoacoustic and source track parameters from acoustic data collected in a shallow-water, sandy sediment environment. Inversion solutions from data collected in the 2006 Shallow Water Experiment (SW06) are extracted from noise measurements of a surface ship source on an L-array. The methodology includes a screening algorithm to determine a set of frequencies for the inversion data. In addition, the methodology assesses the accuracy of the inversion solution and incorporates an estimation of parameter value uncertainties. The solution from the inversion of the horizontal component of the L-array data from the surface ship source before its closest point of approach (CPA) is used to construct modeled propagation loss for comparison with observed received level (RL) structure as the source departs from CPA. Inversion of the data from a single element in the vertical component of the L-array produces a solution that agrees with the solution obtained from the inversion of horizontal subaperture data. Also, modeled transmission loss (TL) structure obtained from the single-element inversion solution reproduces the depth dependence of the RL structure observed at other elements of the vertical component of the L-array.      

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.