Estimation of the long-term variability of hydrophysical characteristics of the Black Sea based on the assimilation of the climatic hydrological fields L and altimetry data

To study the long-term variability of the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea, we use three versions of climatic fields, namely, the fields reconstructed in the model according to the old (1903–1982) and new (1903–2003) hydrological climatic data arrays of temperature and salinity and according to the data of satellite altimetry. The analysis of the altimetry-based climatic fields confirms the distinctions (established earlier according to the old and new data arrays) in the seasonal variability of the integral characteristics of temperature and salinity and in the structures of hydrophysical fields in the sea. It is shown that, in the winter-spring season, the thermohaline fields reconstructed according to the new and altimetry data arrays are characterized by a small elevation of the halocline (pycnocline) and the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer. In all seasons, the altimetry-based surface geostrophic currents contain numerous mesoscale eddies with different signs of rotation. Moreover, in all seasons, the Rim Current reconstructed according to the altimetry data is characterized by a narrower jet almost along the entire its length. This jet is especially intense near the coasts of West Anatolia. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 3–17, July–August, 2006.     

相对剥夺视角下的乡村旅游地居民不规范行为研究 ——以江西婺源县李坑、思溪为例

居民不规范行为危害性极大,传统相关研究多基于社会交换视角,存在一定局限。相对剥夺理论在研究人们的不规范行为上存在一定优势,但鲜有应用于旅游研究。以社区问题明显的李坑、思溪两村落为例,结合相对剥夺理论对居民不规范行为的成因和形式等进行了定性分析。与传统研究不同,发现居民不规范行为与其对旅游负面影响的纵向感知并无直接关系,而主要与横向剥夺感相关。研究表明,相对剥夺理论或可作为居民旅游态度和行为研究的新视角,并在预防和管控旅游地社区问题方面具有重要现实意义。     

均数理论在确定未来震中位置中的应用

应用ＭＤＣＢ方法确定未来的发展地点，主要是用多台ＭＤＣＢ型仪器测出的异常方位角进行交汇。如何确定哪个交汇点有可能发展是关键的问题。应用均数数学理论中对从偶数求解的逆向运算方法，可为地震短临预报研究提供一种新的研究思路。     

数字磁变仪的设计与实现

本文介绍了石英光电磁变仪及其数字化采集，记录的设计和实现，并讨论了数字磁变仪系统在地磁台站的应用结果。     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Nonstationary dynamic control of seismic activity of platform regions by mid-ocean ridges

The plot of temporal variation in the seismic activity level in the central and eastern North American platform (NAP) is shown to be similar to that for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). This fact was previously noted for Fennoscandia [Skordas et al., 1991]. The characteristic features of the MAR plot recur approximately every three years for Fennoscandia and every four to eight years for the NAP. These data indicate that the mid-ocean ridge largely controls the seismic activity of the adjacent platforms. The control is provided by the ridge push force. As a result of variations in this force due to the nonstationary process of dike intrusion in the axial zone of the ridge, disturbances of the stationary stress-strain state of the lithosphere migrate from the ridge. Using the Elsasser model, the observed time shift can be used for estimating the viscosity of the asthenosphere, amounting to 10¹⁷ Pa s with an accuracy of ±30% in the case considered. The disturbance amplitudes decaying away from the ridge are high enough to change the seismic activity of the adjacent platforms.     

The relationship between significant wave height and Indian Ocean Dipole in the equatorial North Indian Ocean

Based on reanalysis data, we find that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays an important role in the variability of wave climate in the equatorial Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). Significant wave height (SWH) in the equatorial NIO, especially over the waters southeast to Sri Lanka, exhibits strong interannual variations. SWH anomalies in the waters southeast to Sri Lanka correlate well with dipole mode index (DMI) during both summer and autumn. Negative SWH anomalies occur over the oceanic area southeast to Sri Lanka during positive IOD events and vary with different types of IOD. During positive prolonged (unseasonable) IOD, the SWH anomalies are the strongest in autumn (summer); while during positive normal IOD, the SWH anomalies are weak in both summer and autumn. Strong easterly wind anomalies over the southeast oceanic area of Sri Lanka during positive IOD events weaken the original equatorial westerly wind stress, which leads to the decrease in wind-sea waves. The longer wave period during positive IOD events further confirms less wind-sea waves. The SWH anomaly pattern during negative IOD events is nearly opposite to that during positive IOD events.     

基于图形处理器的伪谱和高阶有限 差分混合方法地震波数值模拟

伪谱和高阶有限差分混合方法, 在垂直方向采用交错网格有限差分算子, 利用其并行程度高的特点, 在水平方向采用伪谱算子, 保留其高精度的优势, 是计算地震波场的有效方法. 图形处理器(graphic processing unit, 简写为GPU) 由于其高度并行性, 在计算此类问题中有显著的优势. 由英伟达(NVIDIA)公司推出的统一计算设备架构(compute unified device architecture, 简写为CUDA)平台极大地简化了GPU编程的难度. 为提高计算效率, 本文实现了基于CUDA 平台的混合方法二维地震波场模拟. 然后基于二维均匀介质模型将CPU与GPU版本的运行时间进行对比. 实际测试结果表明, 基于CUDA 的并行模拟方法在保证计算精度的同时显著地提高了计算速度, 为开展大规模非均匀地球介质地震波传播数值模拟提供了一种可选的方法.      

A broad‐scale assessment of the effect of improved soil management on catchment baseflow index

Although the importance of sustainable soil management is recognized, there are many threats to soils including widespread soil structural degradation. This reduces infiltration through the soil surface and/or the percolation of water through the soil profile, with important consequences for crop yields, nutrient cycling and the hydrological response of catchments. This article describes a broad‐scale modelling approach to assess the potential effect that improved agricultural soil management, through reduced soil structural degradation, may have on the baseflow index (BFI) of catchments across England and Wales. A daily soil–water balance model was used to simulate the indicative BFI of 45 696 thirty‐year model runs for different combinations of soil type, soil/field condition, land cover class and climate which encapsulate the variability across England and Wales. The indicative BFI of catchments was then calculated by upscaling the results by spatial weighting. WaSim model outputs of indicative BFI were within the 95% confidence intervals of the national‐average BFI values given for the Hydrology of Soil Type (HOST ? ) classes for 26 of the 28 classes. At the catchment scale, the concordance correlation coefficient between the BFI from the WaSim model outputs and those derived from HOST was 0·83. Plausible improvements in agricultural soil/field condition produced modest simulated increases of up to 10% in the indicative BFI in most catchments across England and Wales, although for much of southern and northern England the increases were less than 5%. The results suggest that improved soil management might partially mitigate the expected adverse effects of climate change on baseflow to rivers. Healthy, well‐functioning soils produce many additional benefits such as better agricultural yields and reduced pollutant movement, so improved soil management should provide win‐win opportunities for society, agricultural systems and the environment and provide resilience to some of the expected environmental impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.