Estimating climate changes in the northern hemisphere in the 21st century under alternative scenarios of anthropogenic forcing

Possible changes in the climate characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century are estimated using a climate model (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP), Russian Academy of Sciences) under different scenarios of variations in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including those formed at the OIAP on the basis of SRES emission scenarios (group I) and scenarios (group II) developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI). Over the 21st century, the global annual mean warming at the surface amounts to 1.2?C2.6°C under scenarios I and 0.9?C1.2°C under scenarios II. For all scenarios II, starting from the 2060s, a decrease is observed in the rate of increase in the global mean annual near-surface air temperature. The spatial structures of variations in the mean annual near-surface air temperature in the 21st century, which have been obtained for both groups of scenarios (with smaller absolute values for scenarios II), are similar. Under scenarios I, within the extratropical latitudes, the mean annual surface air temperature increases by 3?C7°C in North America and by 3?C5°C in Eurasia in the 21st century. Under scenarios II, the near-surface air temperature increases by 2?C4°C in North America and by 2?C3°C in Eurasia. An increase in the total amount of precipitation by the end of the 21st century is noted for both groups of scenarios; the most significant increase in the precipitation rate is noted for the land of the Northern Hemisphere. By the late 21st century, the total area of the near-surface permafrost soils of the land of the Northern Hemisphere decreases to 3.9?C9.5 10⁶ km² for scenarios I and 9.7?C11.0 × 10⁶ km² for scenarios II. The decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost soils by 2091?C2100 (as compared to 2001?C2010) amounts to approximately 65% for scenarios I and 40% for scenarios II. By the end of the 21st century, in regions of eastern Siberia, in which near-surface permafrost soils are preserved, the characteristic depths of seasonal thawing amount to 0.5?C2.5 m for scenarios I and 1?C2 m for scenarios II. In western Siberia, the depth of seasonal thawing amounts to 1?C2 m under both scenarios I and II.     

Sea surface wind and Sea ice in the Barents Sea using microwave sensing data from Meteor-M N1 and GCOM-W1 satellites in January–March 2013

Application of satellite passive microwave sensing for the retrieval of key climatic parameters in the Barents Sea is considered. Fields of surface wind, atmosphere water vapor content and cloud liquid water content were found from MTVZA-GY radiometer onboard the Meteor-M N1 satellite and AMSR2 onboard the GCOM-W1 satellite with the use of original algorithms. The fields are in a good agreement with the ancillary remote and in situ measurements, which follows from the analysis of the evolution of the extra tropical and polar cyclones and cold air outbreaks with storm winds leading to intense air-sea interaction, and the formation and drift of sea ice.     

Holocene environmental change and the accumulation–erosion balance of sheltered river-mouth sediments, Göteborg, SW Sweden

Holocene sedimentological change was investigated in 15 sediment piston cores (250 cm long) from the mouth of the Göta älv River, outside of Göteborg, which is sheltered by an archipelago. The main objective was to interpret recent, natural and human-induced influences upon the accumulation–erosion balance and the sedimentary environment from Holocene sediment units. The five main units are: consolidated glaciomarine clay (Facies gC) lowermost, consolidated estuarine clay (Facies dC), soft sub-recent sediment (Facies omC and Facies C) uppermost and dumped sediment (Facies D) in some parts of the study area. The sediment facies are divided by two major hiatuses: (a) the early Holocene hiatus between Facies gC and dC involves a time gap of at least 7000 years, ending at ca. 4000 BP and (b) the late Holocene hiatus between the consolidated clays (Facies gC and dC) and Facies omC spans 1000 years and ends ca. 50 BP (i.e. 100 years ago). Both hiatuses probably relate to the effects of isostatic land uplift. Surface sediments consist mainly of an organic-matter-rich clay facies, suggesting changes in the trophic state of the estuary during the last 100 years. Together with human-induced increased river erosion and loss of accommodation space in the estuary, this caused the onset of sedimentation in the estuary. The recent sediments are contaminated with heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Hg), with highest concentrations in the lower part of Facies omC.     

Petrological and geochemical characteristics of Plio-Pleistocene Volcanics from Ponza Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

Summary Volcanic rocks on Ponza Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy) consist of Pliocene submarine rhyolites and Pleistocene subaerial trachyte and comendite lavas. Chemical variations and the homogeneous Sr and Nd isotopic signatures within the analyzed Pliocene rocks are ascribed to crystal fractionation. The absolute isotopic values, however, indicate the important role of a crustal component in the origin of these magmas. The very high-silica rocks were probably derived from a superimposed mechanism which may have been connected to the ascent of hydrothermal magmatic fluids. Compositional and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations at constant ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values in the Pleistocene rocks are likely due to fractionation of the observed phenocryst assemblage, possibly coupled with minor crustal interaction. These processes, however, cannot account for the extreme enrichment of many incompatible trace elements in the comendites. Some evidence suggests the influence of a halogen- and/or CO₂-rich volatile phase. Received February 17, 2000; revised version accepted November 29, 2000     

Magnetization properties of intrusive/extrusive rocks from East Maio (Republic of Cape Verde) and their geological implications

Summary. The remanent magnetization of intrusive/extrusive rocks of the 'basement' complex of East Maio constitutes four components that define two different axes of magnetization, at around dec. 328, inc. 12 and dec. 007, inc. 14 respectively. In general, two or more components co-exist in separate specimens or sites but both axes are present most frequently in the normal sense. The NNW-striking axis, the B-axis, fits very well with the Upper Cretaceous polar wander path for Africa. It is consequently inferred that the major phase of sheet intrusions in Maio dates from this time, probably from the interval 90–70 Myr bp. Comparisons of the directional dispersions in the folded and unfolded states suggest that this injection phase post-dates the uplift of the Central Igneous Complex of the island. The second axis of magnetization, the A -axis, agrees very well with late Teritary—Quaternary palaeomagnetic data for Africa and the Canary Islands. The A -axis is therefore regarded as of secondary origin, being the consequence of a thermal/ chemical overprint during the Miocene—Pliocene volcanism on the island. The occurrence of a 50–70 Myr long period of volcanic quiescence and erosion, between the termination of the early igneous activity (Upper Cretaceous) and the rejuvenated magmatism in Miocene/Pliocene time, is compatible with similar observations in the Canary Islands. In contrast to the palaeomagnetic conclusions, the K/Ar data only give ages around 10 Myr. The unusually young isotope dates are regarded as being due to an almost complete age resetting and are seen in conjuction with the overprinted magnetization. This explanation is further supported by the fact that K/Ar results of pillow lavas underlying Upper Jurassic limestones only give Tertiary ages.     

Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960–2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels

Abstract

Trends in rainfall series were investigated at 16 stations in Ghana over the period 1960–2005. Time series were first de-correlated using an effective pre-whitening methodology and then submitted to the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test. Field significances were assessed using the regional average Kendall statistic. Although no significant changes were observed in annual rainfall, the analysis reveals: (a) a reduction in the number of wet season days totalling less than 20 mm of rainfall, between latitudes 6° and 9.5°N; (b) a delay (about 0.5 d year^‐1) in the wet season onset at several locations throughout the country; and (c) a lengthening (about 0.1 d year^‐1) of rainless periods during the wet season in the south and centre of Ghana. All these changes, which remained insignificant at more than half of the individual stations, were found to be regionally significant at the 95% confidence level. The results highlight the importance of evaluating regional significance when investigating climate trends.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Lacombe, G., McCartney, M., and Forkuor, G., 2012. Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960–2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1594–1609.     

Effects of heat/water flow interaction on compacted bentonite: Preliminary results

Compacted bentonite blocks have been heated and hydrated in a stainless steel cell in order to simulate, in the laboratory, the conditions of the clay barrier in a high-level radioactive waste repository. Temperature distributions at different times, rate of hydration, final water content and dry density have been measured. Some chemical parameters, as electrical conductivity in an aqueous extractable amorphous silica, have also been obtained. For the periods of time considered (up to 2500 h), the hydration process is not affected by the thermal gradient, the high suction of the bentonite being the critical factor in the initial water uptake of the clay barrier. A remarkable saline environment has been detected near the heater, due to salt migration towards dried areas. This phenomenon should be taken into account in further investigations of the mechanical and geochemical behaviour of the clay barrier.     

基于InSAR、GPS形变场的长白山地区火山岩浆囊参数模拟研究

利用差分合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术（DInSAR）获取长白山地区的形变场.结果显示1995~1998年期间,位于长白山东南侧的间白山火山存在6~12 cm的视线向形变,而长白山天池火山处于平静期,没有明显形变.利用2002~2003年的GPS和水准获取的形变数据,分别采用Mogi单源、双源模型反演了长白山地区火山的岩浆囊参数.其中双源模型拟合效果较为理想,两个点源一个位于长白山天池老火山口下方7.9 km处,另一个位于间白山火山下方5.5 km处.对双源模型反演得到的岩浆囊参数进行适当调整,拟合得到与InSAR形变场基本吻合的结果.上述研究结果表明长白山地区火山活动存在时间上的间歇性和空间上的迁移性,为进一步研究长白山地区火山活动机制提供了参考和依据.     

Spawning densities,egg densities,size structure,and movement patterns of spawning horseshoe crabs,<Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>, within four coastal embayments on Cape Cod,Massachusetts

Spawning densities, spawning indices, egg densities, size distributions, and movement patterns of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) were quantified for four coastal embayments (Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge, Pleasant Bay, Nauset Estuary, and Cape Cod Bay) on Cape Cod, Massachusetts from 2000 to 2002. Spawning activity was highest from mid May through mid June, but densities varied throughout the Cape Cod region. Average spawning densities (male and female crabs combined), measured using 25-m² quadrats, were lower than 1 crab 25 m^?2, although certain locations had consistently higher densities averaging 2 to 3 crabs 25 m^?2 with individual survey densities recorded as high as 17 crabs 25 m^?2. Spawning densities during night surveys were either similar or slightly higher than day surveys, except at a few sites within Pleasant Bay. Spawning indices were considerably lower ranging from 0 to 1.3 females 25 m^?2 throughout the Cape Cod region. Spawning sex ratios varied from 1∶1.6 to 1∶3.1 (females:males) throughout the region, except within Pleasant Bay where highly male skewed ratios were observed (e.g., 1∶5.8, 3-yr average). Egg densities were low overall (<1 egg cm^?2) throughout Cape Cod and egg densities tended to be higher in deeper sediments (5–20 cm deep) compared to shallow sediments (0–5 cm deep) at most locations. Over 7,800 horseshoe crabs were tagged on Cape Cod from 2000 to 2002. Average size and size frequency distributions of tagged crabs varied among regions. Larger individuals were observed at Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge while the smallest individuals were from Cape Cod Bay. We documented an overall recapture rate of 6.7% and our tag-recapture data indicated that 62% of crabs were recaptured at the original tagging location and 70% of recaptures traveled less than 2 km from the original tagging location, providing evidence for localized populations on Cape Cod. We have observed that horseshoe crabs differ among embayments within a regional area, suggesting the potential need for management plans specific to embayments or subregions depending on the characteristics of a population.     

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Based Inversion of Benthic Substrate Bottom Type and Bathymetry in Optically Shallow Waters - Initial Model Results

Ocean-colour remote sensing in optically shallow waters is influenced by contribution from the water column depth as well as by the substrate type. Therefore, it is required to include the contribution from the water column and substrate bottom type for bathymetry estimation. In this report we demonstrate the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approach to spectrally distinguish various benthic bottom types and estimate depth of substrate bottom simultaneously in optically shallow waters. We have used in-water radiative transfer simulation modeling to generate simulated top-of-the-water column reflectance the four major benthic bottom types viz. sea grass, coral sand, green algae and red algae using Hydrolight simulation model. The simulated remote sensing reflectance, for the four benthic bottom types having benthic bottom depth up to 30 m were generated for moderately clear waters. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) type neural network was trained using the simulated data. ANN based approach was used for classification of the benthic bottom type and simultaneous inversion of bathymetry. Simulated data was inverted to yield benthic bottom type classification with an accuracy of ~98% for the four benthic substrate types and the substrate depth were estimated with an error of 0% for sea grass, 1% for coral sand and 1–3% for green and red algae up to 25 m, whereas for substrate bottom deeper than 25 m depth the classification errors increased by 2–5% for three substrate bottom types except sea grass bottom type. The initial results are promising which needs validation using the in-situ measured remote sensing reflectance spectra for implementing further on satellite data.