Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frost risk mapping for landscape planning: A methodology

Summary Minimum air temperatures were measured during three winters with a network of stations in open, undulating terrain. It was observed that the change in minimum air temperature with elevation could be predicted from mean nighttime windspeed, total nighttime net radiation loss and a hill-top reference minimum temperature. It was also found that the deviation of temperatures at individual sites could be predicted from a local terrain parameter which reflects the extent of cold air accumulations. Thus a methodology for frost risk mapping has been developed which is based on regional weather dataand local terrain analysis. This paper describes the model and illustrates the regional weather and terrain effects with three-dimensional block diagrams.With 8 Figures     

Magnetic Anisotropy as an Aid to Identifying CRM and DRM in Red Sedimentary Rocks

To further evaluate the potential of magnetic anisotropy techniques for determining the origin of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) in sedimentary rocks, several new remanence anisotropy measurement techniques were explored. An accurate separation of the remanence anisotropy of magnetite and hematite in the same sedimentary rock sample was the goal.In one technique, Tertiary red and grey sedimentary rock samples from the Orera section (Spain) were exposed to 13 T fields in 9 different orientations. In each orientation, alternating field (af) demagnetization was used to separate the magnetite and hematite contributions of the high field isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM). Tensor subtraction was used to calculate the magnetite and hematite anisotropy tensors. Geologically interpretable fabrics did not result, probably because of the presence of goethite which contributes to the IRM. In the second technique, also applied to samples from Orera, an anisotropy of anhysteretic remanence (AAR) was applied in af fields up to 240 mT to directly measure the fabric of the magnetite in the sample. IRMs applied in 2 T fields followed by 240 mT af demagnetization, and thermal demagnetization at 90°C to remove the goethite contribution, were used to independently measure the hematite fabric in the same samples. This approach gave geologically interpretable results with minimum principal axes perpendicular to bedding, suggesting that the hematite and magnetite grains in the Orera samples both carry a depositional remanent magnetization (DRM). In a third experiment, IRMs applied in 13 T fields were used to measure the magnetic fabric of samples from the Dome de Barrot area (France). These samples had been demonstrated to have hematite as their only magnetic mineral. The fabrics that resulted were geologically interpretable, showing a strong NW-SE horizontal lineation consistent with AMS fabrics measured in the same samples. These fabrics suggest that the rock's remanence may have been affected by strain and could have originated as a DRM or a CRM.Our work shows that it is important to account for the presence of goethite when using high field IRMs to measure the remanence anisotropy of hematite-bearing sedimentary rocks. It also shows that very high magnetic fields (>10 T) may be used to measure the magnetic fabric of sedimentary rocks with highly coercive magnetic minerals without complete demagnetization between each position, provided that the field magnetically saturates the rock.     

A preliminary investigation into the use of ochre as a remedial amendment in arsenic-contaminated soils

Ochre is an unwanted waste product that accumulates in wetlands and streams draining abandoned coal and metal mines. A potential commercial use for ochre is to remediate As contaminated soil. Arsenic contaminated soil (605 mg kg⁻¹) was mixed with different ochres (A, B and C) in a mass ratio of 1:1 and shaken in 20 mL of deionised water. After 72 h As concentration in solution was ca. 500 μg kg⁻¹ in the control and 1–2.5 μg kg⁻¹ in the ochre treated experiments. In a second experiment soil:ochre mixtures of 0.05–1:1 were shaken in 20 mL of deionised water for 24 h. For Ochres A and C, as solution concentration was reduced to ca. 1 μg kg⁻¹ by 0.2–1:1 ochre:soil mixtures. For Ochre B, as concentration only reached ca. 1 μg kg⁻¹ in the 1:1 ochre:soil mix. Sorption of As was best modelled by a Freundlich isotherm using As sorption per mass of goethite in the ochre (log K = 1.64, n = 0.79, R² = 0.76, p 0.001). Efficiency of ochre in removing As from solution increased with increasing total Fe, goethite, citrate dithionite extractable Fe and surface area.     

Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.     

Age and source material of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif,East Sayan

The REE distribution patterns and Nd whole-rock and mineral isotope ratios of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif enabled us to propose a multistage history for its evolution at 1410 and 875 Ma. These stages reflect the magmatic evolution of the Siberian paleocontinent margin during the Late Precambrian. The age of metamorphism of the massif during collision and accretion in the Early Paleozoic (∼500 Ma) was obtained based on a Sm-Nd mineral isochron from rheomorphic veined albitite. The Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of rocks from the Kingash massif suggest mantle sources for picritic and basic magmas, which are thought to have originated by mixing of different proportions of depleted (PREMA or DM) and enriched (EM) melts. The initial isotope ratios of the parental melts transformed during interaction with Sr-rich material from the host metasedimentary complexes.     

Relationships between marginal thrusting and movement on major,internal shear zones in the Northern Highland Caledonides,Scotland

The development of the syn-metamorphic Sgurr Beag slide zone, a major ductile shear zone of initially low dip, caused at least 50 km north-western thrust displacement of part of the internal metamorphic complex of the Northern Highland Caledonides of Scotland. Initiation of the zone, and movements upon it, were earlier than formation of the marginal Moine Thrust zone. Movement on the zone followed but overlapped the peak Caledonian metamorphism and the mid to high amphibolite facies mineral assemblages, fabrics and structures produced during the development of the slide zone and those surviving from earlier events, were reworked under greenschist facies conditions during mylonitization associated with initiation of the Moine Thrust zone. Displacements on the slide zone and thrust movements were separated by emplacement of a regional suite of pegmatites and a considerable change of metamorphic grade. Thus, they may not constitute members of a progressive sequence of Caledonian thrusts formed over a short time interval. Rather, preliminary isotopic data may imply an interval of c. 25 Ma between movement on the slide zone and final, ductile translation along the Moine Thrust zone.     

Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Estimating water balance components of tropical wetland lakes in the Pantanal dry season,Brazil

Abstract

Water balance studies with stable water isotopes have rarely been conducted in remote and tropical wetland areas. As such, little is known regarding the water balance and groundwater–surface water interaction in the Pantanal, one of the largest and most pristine wetlands in the world. We applied MINA TrêS, a water balance model utilizing stable water isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and chloride (Cl^-) to assess the dry-season hydrological processes controlling groundwater–surface water interactions and the water balance of six floodplain lakes in the northern Pantanal, Brazil. Qualitatively, all lakes exhibited similarity in hydrological controls. Quantitatively, they differed significantly due to morphological differences in controlling groundwater inflow and lake volume. Our approach is readily transferable to other remote and tropical wetland systems with minimal data input requirements, which is useful in regions with sparse hydrometric monitoring.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz