Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

Intercomparison of210Pb measurements at GEOSECS station 500 in the northeast Pacific

During reoccupation of the GEOSECS-I test station in May, 1979, more than eighty 30-liter Niskin samples were collected in profile, many as replicates, for²¹⁰Pb intercomparison measurements by the WHOI, SIO and Yale groups. In addition to the inter-laboratory comparisons, the SIO group also carried out extensive experiments to test the effect of sample scavenging method. Pb equilibration time (storage effect), and filtration process on the measured²¹⁰Pb results.The intercomparison measurements indicate that there is a general agreement between the various sets of data. The sample set which allows a direct comparison at the same depth was available in most cases only between two of the three groups. The direct paired comparison shows that (1) the WHOI data are systematically 3% lower than the SIO data; (2) there are no systematic differences observed between the SIO and Yale data although the scatter is rather large; (3) the Yale data are systematically higher than the WHOI data by about 8%.The SIO experiments show that (1) the two scavenging methods employed (Fe(OH)₃ and Co-APDC co-precipitation) yield identical²¹⁰Pb results; (2) variation of Pb carrier equilibration time or of storage time has no discernible effect; (3) the filtration apparatus and procedure employed at this station do not result in²¹⁰Pb loss or contamination.The²¹⁰Pb profile structure and absolute concentration measured earlier at the same location (GOGO-II test station and GEOSECS station 347) agree with those of station 500 within 10%. The present profile shows a minimum²¹⁰Pb concentration around 500 m depth, marking the penetration depth of the flux of excess²¹⁰Pb from the atmosphere. There is a mild mid-depth maximum around 2500–3000 m. The²¹⁰Pb/²²⁶Ra activity ratio decreases monotonically from about 1 at the²¹⁰Pb minimum to about 0.5 near the bottom. The particulate²¹⁰Pb profile shows a systematic increase from the subsurface water to the bottom water by a factor of 5. This feature has been observed in many GEOSECS particulate²¹⁰Pb profiles.     

Estimation of bioavailability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in river sediments

This study aimed to evaluate the total concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments of Iguassu River in Southern Brazil. Alongside the concentration, the amount of such compounds bioavailable was also evaluated. This is accomplished by comparing its total amount present in sediments and the amount extracted by n-butanol. The results showed that the total concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons presented in sediment ranged from 4.49 to 58.75???g/g. The total amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons extracted by n-butanol ranged from 1.22 to 17.07???g/g. The use of n-butanol represents the mimetic conditions that hydrocarbons, derived from oil, could be taken up by organisms. Most of the hydrocarbons extracted by n-butanol were those with lower octanol?Cwater partition constant, usually those with three and four rings. Compounds with more than four rings were extracted in lower or insignificant amounts. Even the hydrocarbons with lower molecular weight available may be degraded or eliminated by organisms, when accumulated. Estimating bioavailability of hydrocarbons represents what specific hydrocarbons could be available to be taken up by organisms.     

Physico-chemical seasonal variability of a tropical estuary: major and minor elements in water and air

The lower reaches of the Coatzacoalcos River in southeast Mexico is an area of intense industrial development. The physico-chemical characteristics of the area have exhibited differences over the years. Apparently from the associated outcroppings of limestone in the Uxpanapa River Basin, the major elements that are dissolved show higher concentrations of Ca, Mg and HCO₃^– in the waters supplied by this river. The water in the Calzadas River contains high concentrations of Ca, SO₄ and HCO₃^– that are associated with the saline domes crossed by this river. Due to industrial discharges, the sulfate concentration is very high in the water and air during April. Nitrate concentration diminishes with salinity. Higher nitrate as well as nitrite and ammonia levels are present during flood season. Phosphate concentration, associated with high oxygen levels, is higher in January. Zn, Cu and Cr are higher during the dry season (April) when dilution is minimal and low levels of TOC are present. The smaller concentrations of Zn and Cu observed in January are associated with high TOC values in water. The lower levels of Cr present in August are associated with high amounts of suspended matter. Pajaritos Lagoon and Teapa-L, with large industrial discharges, have the highest nutrient and dissolved metal concentrations in the area. Air particles smaller than 2.5 m contain Fe, V, Ti, Cu, Zn, and high amounts of S. These anomalous concentrations of sulfates and metals are attributed to anthropogenic sources.     

Coastal conditions in West Africa—A review

This paper describes the coastal system between Cape Palmas bordering the Ivory Coast and Liberia and Mount Cameroon, as a basis for regional coastal-erosion management.The area includes the rocky coasts of the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the long sandy beaches of Togo and Benin and the deltas of the Volta and Niger Rivers. Important elements of the system appear to be its geographical setting, its geological history, oceanological impacts, the sediment supply by rivers and coastal erosion, littoral transport and the rise of mean sea level. The morphological processes are influenced by human activities in the catchments of the rivers (dams), in the estuaries (dredging) and along the coasts (port construction).It appears that future human interventions and the impact of increased sea-level rise will require intergovernmental co-ordination in coastal-erosion management, as the various coasts are all part of one system.     

Response of rectangular plates with edges possessing different degrees of elastic rotational restraints, in harmonic excitation

The response of thin elastic plates having edges elastically restrained in rotation to different degrees and subjected to sinusoidal excitation has been investigated. The displacement and bending moment amplitudes have been determined for plates having different aspect ratios, rotational restraints at supports and frequency values. Comparison with available results indicated good accuracy. The formulation is based on a simple numerical procedure.     

Influence of sea surface wind wave turbulence upon wind-induced circulation, tide–surge interaction and bed stress

A three-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, with high resolution in the coastal regions, is used to investigate the role of wind wave turbulence and wind and tide forced currents in producing maximum bed stress in the eastern Irish Sea. The spatial distribution of the maximum bed stress, which is important in sediment transport problems, is determined, together with how it is modified by the direction of wind forced currents, tide–surge interaction and a surface source of wind wave turbulence associated with wave breaking. Initial calculations show that to first order the distribution of maximum bed stress is determined by the tide. However, since maximum sediment transport occurs at times of episodic events, such as storm surges, their effects upon maximum bed stresses are examined for the case of strong northerly, southerly and westerly wind forcing. Calculations show that due to tide–surge interaction both the tidal distribution and the surge are modified by non-linear effects. Consequently, the magnitude and spatial distribution of maximum bed stress during major wind events depends upon wind direction. In addition calculations show that a surface source of turbulence due to wind wave breaking in shallow water can influence the maximum bed stress. In turn, this influences the wind forced flow and hence the movement of suspended sediment. Calculations of the spatial variability of maximum bed stress indicate the level of measurements required for model validation.     

Towards a direct collapse–load method of design for concrete frames subjected to severe ground motions

Most current methods of design for concrete structures under earthquake loads rely on highly idealized ‘equivalent’ static representations of the seismic loads and linear‐elastic methods of structural analysis. With the continuing development of non‐linear methods of dynamic analysis for the overload behaviour and collapse of complete concrete structures, a more direct and more accurate design procedure becomes possible which considers conditions at system collapse. This paper describes an evaluation procedure that uses non‐linear dynamic collapse–load analysis together with global safety coefficients. A back‐calibration procedure for evaluating the global safety coefficients is also described. The aim of this paper is to open up discussion of alternative methods of design with improved accuracy which are necessary to move towards a direct collapse–load method of design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.