High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Simulations of Flash-Flood Episodes with Grid-Nesting and Ice-Phase Parameterization

Summary ?Simulations of two heavy rainfall events south of the Alps have been conducted with a non-hydrostatic model at horizontal resolutions ranging from 40 to 2.5 km. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of two recent model developments: a detailed explicit mixed phase microphysical scheme and a two-way interactive grid nesting method. In the high-resolution simulations, the impact of the ice phase was found to be quite substantial, accelerating the propagation of the surface front and modifying the spatial distribution of the rainfall. Simulations carried out with two-way interactive grid nesting yielded more realistic overall precipitation patterns, particularly at the finest horizontal resolution. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 28, 1999     

Higher order analytical solutions of water table fluctuations in coastal aquifers

The groundwater response of coastal aquifers to tidal forcing is described by Laplace's equation coupled with the nonlinear phreatic-free surface boundary condition. Here we describe fluctuations in the water table using two small parameters, extending previous work by proposing an ansatz to compute higher order, semi-analytical solutions. The new solutions are compared with known lower order solutions. The relative difference between the linear solution and higher order solutions can reach up to 30% of the linear solution for shallow beaches. The new solutions exhibit a reduction in the over height of the groundwater fluctuations compared with the lower order solutions. In addition, the super elevation of the water table, both near shore and as the aquifer tends landward, is examined with the inclusion of higher order terms.     

Reaching critical mass? Theory, politics, and the culture of debate in children's geographies

A small but growing number of voices have begun to raise questions about the current direction of children's geographies as a subfield and its status within the wider discipline. This article intervenes in these emerging discussions to examine the status of debate itself within children's geographies. I argue that children's geographies over the past decade has operated primarily in a consensus-based mode, with a number of potential tensions and differences between practitioners masked as a result. I develop the example of notions of children's competent social agency, a core theoretical assumption that is rarely interrogated in much depth. In closing, I pose questions regarding several contemporary political issues concerning children's agency about which geographers have had surprisingly little to say. I suggest that explicitly addressing some of these vexing issues would contribute to a richer state of debate within children's geographies.     

Ice-sheet growth and high-latitudes sea-surface temperature

The response of the LLN 2-D climate model to the insolation and CO₂ forcings during the Eemian interglacial is compared to reconstructions obtained from deep-sea cores drilled in the Norwegian Sea and in the North Atlantic. Both reconstructions and modeling results show a decrease of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the higher latitudes (70–75 °N zonal belt for the model and the Norwegian Sea for the proxy records), associated with a more moderate cooling at lower latitudes (50–55 °N and North Atlantic), at the middle of isotopic substage 5e, several millenia before the beginning of continental ice-sheet growth. Such a comparison between the simulated SST and ice volume of the Northern Hemisphere has been extended to the whole last glacial-interglacial cycle. The influence of the insolation forcing on SST and the shortcomings of the model due to its zonal character are discussed. Received: 6 July 1995/Accepted: 19 December 1995     

The generation ofK indices from digitally recorded magnetic data

TheK index was developed by Bartels and is a measure of geomagnetic activity. The important feature of this index is that it is a measure of solar activity superimposed on the regular daily variation.It is the most used estimate of activity being of particular interest to researchers in ionospheric physics and telecommunications.In response to increased availability of digital data from magnetic observatories and their demand by the scientific community it becomes desireable to check whetherK indices produced from magnetograms plotted from digital data are consistent with those handscaled from La Cour charts.This paper presents results of these comparisons and also reports on several methods tested to produce theK index directly from the digital data.Handscaled indices from digital plots are suitable for producing theK index. Computations using digital data do not reproduceK as defined by Bartels precisely but do provide an equivalent index which is satisfactory for most user and research purposes.     

Scope for a small circumsolar annular gravitational contribution to the Pioneer anomaly without affecting planetary orbits

All proposed gravitational explanations of the Pioneer anomaly must crucially face the Equivalence Principle. Thus, if Pioneers 10 and 11 were influenced by anomalous gravitational effects in regions containing other Solar System bodies, then those bodies should likewise be influenced, irrespective of their shape, composition or mass. Although the lack of any observed influence upon planetary orbits severely constrains such explanations, here we aim to construct by computer modeling, hypothetical gravitating annuli having no gravitational impact on planetary orbits from Mercury to Neptune. One model has a central zone, free of radial gravitation in the annular plane, and an ‘onset’ beyond Saturn’s orbit, where sunward annular gravitation increases to match the Pioneer anomaly data. Sharp nulls are included so that Uranus and Neptune escape this influence. Such models can be proportionately reduced in mass: a 1 % contribution to the anomaly requires an annulus of approximately 1 Earth mass. It is thus possible to comply with the JPL assessment of newly recovered data attributing 80 %, or more, of the anomaly to spacecraft heat, which appears to allow small contributions from other causes. Following the possibility of an increasing Kuiper belt density at great ranges, another model makes an outward small anomalous gravitation in the TNO region, tallying with an observed slight indication of such an effect, suggesting that New Horizons may slightly accelerate in this region.     

Stratigraphy, Chronology, and Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of the Quaternary Sedimentary Infilling of a Volcanic Tube in Fuerteventura, Canary Islands

La Cueva del Llano is a volcanic tube of Pleistocene age on Fuerteventura Island, in the Canary Islands. Part of it is infilled with sediments of external origin. These deposits are exceptional in stratigraphic complexity and thickness compared with other known tube infillings, and they comprise nine stratigraphic units deposited in five phases. In Phase I, which has not been dated, sedimentation of cinder from a nearby cone occurred. Phase II began ca. 16,830 ± 900 ¹⁴C yr B.P., whereas phase IV dates to 9280 ± 370 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The interpretation of sedimentary features shows that phases III and V correspond to a dry climate, similar to the present one, whereas the climate was much wetter during phases II and IV. This paleoclimatic sequence agrees with those suggested by the study of deposits formed in other sedimentary environments, not only in Fuerteventura but on other islands of the Canary group and the Sud-Maroc region.     

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.