A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability

 The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air–sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks, climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40–60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10–20 y, whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5–7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power, the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10–20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic. Received: 28 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997     

Two-frequency timing of the pulsar B1937+21 in Kalyazin and Kashima in 1997–2002

We present the results from our timing of the millisecond pulsar B1937+21, performed jointly since 1997 on two radio telescopes: the RT-64 in Kalyazin (Russia) at a frequency of 0.6GHz and RT-34 in Kashima (Japan) at a frequency of 2.15 GHz. The rms value of the pulse time of arrival (TOA) residuals for the pulsar at the barycenter of the Solar system is 1.8 μs (the relative variation is ≈10^?14 over the observing period). The TOA residuals are shown to be dominated by white phase noise, which allows this pulsar to be used as an independent time scale keeper. The upper limit for the gravitational background energy density Ω_gh² at frequencies ≈6.5 × 10^?9 Hz is estimated to be no higher than 10^?6. Based on the long-term timing of the pulsar, we have improved its parameters and accurately determined the dispersion measure and its time variation over the period 1984–2002, which was, on average, ?0.00114(3) pc cm^?3 yr^?1.     

Zeeman-doppler imaging: A new option for magnetic field study of Ap and solar-type stars

In the task of studying stellar magnetic fields, polarimetric methods have been intensively used in Ap stars. But the observational material classically used to reconstruct stellar magnetic structures (average longitudinal magnetic field as a function of rotational phase) is not rich enough in spatial information to derive geometries more complex than centered or decentered dipoles.In solar-type stars, all evidences of activity recently detected on their surfaces (starspots, flares, ...) indicate they are most likely magnetic stars. But polarimetric methods have always failed in these stars, probably due to the complex magnetic topologies encountered which even prevented until now a simple detection (Borra, Edwards, and Mayor, 1984). With the Zeeman broadening measurement technique proposed by Robinson (1980), no reliable results can be derived for rapid rotators, which are otherwise presumed to be the best candidates for magnetic detections. Once more, if temperature inhomogeneity charts are already available for solar-type stars (Vogt, 1987), spatial information on their magnetic distributions has conversely not yet been obtained.The new option, recently proposed by Semel (1989) and qualified by Donati, Semel, and Praderie (1989), is based on the rotational modulation study of a rapid rotator Stokes parameter V(), obtained with both high spectral resolution R, and high signal-to-noise ratio S/N. Since the magnetic information used refers to localized strips on the stellar disc (as a consequence of the star rotation), multipolar structures can thus be resolved.A new instrumentation and observing procedure have been defined for ZDI, in order to obtain very high S/N data. The method has been successfully tested on two bright magnetic Ap stars: a magnetic detection was obtained on UMa and a 15-point phase coverage of ² CVn is available for the reconstruction of complete 2D abundance and magnetic mappings of its photosphere.Concerning solar-type stars, a numerical simulation was carried out in order to determine the observational constraints required for the detection of typical magnetic field similar to those reported in slow rotators with the Robinson method (Saar, 1988). The specifications needed are S/N 400 per 40 mÅ pixel and R - 6 × 10⁴.     

Line-driven disc wind models with an improved line force

We describe an efficient method of calculating the radiation pressure resulting from spectral lines, including all the terms in the velocity gradient tensor. We apply this method to calculate the two-dimensional, time-dependent structure of winds from luminous discs. Qualitative features of our new models are very similar to those we calculated including only the dominant terms in the tensor. In particular, we find that models which displayed unsteady behaviour in our earlier paper are also unsteady with the new method, and gross properties of the winds, such as mass-loss rate and characteristic velocity, are not changed by the more accurate approach. The largest change caused by the new method is in the disc-wind opening angle: winds driven only by the disc radiation are more polar with the new method, whilst winds driven by the disc and central object radiation are typically more equatorial. In the closing discussion, we provide further insight into the way the geometry of the radiation field and consequent flow determine the time properties of the flow.     

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 – 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 – 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.     

A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. III. Catastrophe of the Eruptive Filament at a Magnetic Null Point and Formation of an Opposite-Handedness CME

Our analysis in Papers I and II (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. 289, 289, 2014b and Solar Phys. 289, 1279, 2014c) of the 18 November 2003 solar event responsible for the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm has revealed a complex chain of eruptions. In particular, the eruptive filament encountered a topological discontinuity located near the solar disk center at a height of about 100 Mm, bifurcated, and transformed into a large cloud, which did not leave the Sun. Concurrently, an additional CME presumably erupted close to the bifurcation region. The conjectures about the responsibility of this compact CME for the superstorm and its disconnection from the Sun are confirmed in Paper IV (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. submitted, 2014a), which concludes about its probable spheromak-like structure. The present article confirms the presence of a magnetic null point near the bifurcation region and addresses the origin of the magnetic helicity of the interplanetary magnetic clouds and their connection to the Sun. We find that the orientation of a magnetic dipole constituted by dimmed regions with the opposite magnetic polarities away from the parent active region corresponded to the direction of the axial field in the magnetic cloud, while the pre-eruptive filament mismatched it. To combine all of the listed findings, we propose an intrinsically three-dimensional scheme, in which a spheromak-like eruption originates via the interaction of the initially unconnected magnetic fluxes of the eruptive filament and pre-existing ones in the corona. Through a chain of magnetic reconnections their positive mutual helicity was transformed into the self-helicity of the spheromak-like magnetic cloud.     

Fluctuations of electron precipitation to the dayside auroral zone modulated by compression and expansion of the magnetosphere

Concurrent variations of CNA fluctuations and geomagnetic fluctuations are classified into Type 1 (substorm-type), Type 2 (Pc5-type), and Type 3 which is the object of the present study. Type 3 apparently has peculiar characteristics in that CNA fluctuations at a certain auroral-zone station show a pronounced positive correlation with magnetic fluctuations at distant low-latitude stations. The magnetic fluctuations of this type are identified to generalized Si which tends to take place much more frequently than the so-called Si. The CNA fluctuations of this type are found to take place on the dayside auroral zone only when preceded by a magnetic substorm on the night side. Considering the change of the growth rate of electron cyclotron instability and enhancement of pitch angle diffusion due to the change of magnetic field intensity, the following model is proposed to explain the occurrence mechanism of Type 3 concurrent variations. The CNA fluctuations take place only when two conditions are satisfied; generation of the accelerated electrons in association with substorm onset and modulation of the precipitation of the electrons by compression and expansion of the magnetosphere, in other words, by generalized Si.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Zum Umweltverhalten von Fluortensiden Teil 1: Prüfung auf Aquatoxizität

Poecilia reticulata PETERS (guppy) and the green alga Monoraphidium griffithii were used for testing of different fluorotensides. After the representation of the methods of investigation and the definition of criteria of toxicity the obtained results of investigation are discussed. In general, the toxicity of the four investigated fluorotensides to algae was lower than to fish. The anionic fluorotenside CF₃—(CF₂)n—CFH—COONa was an exception. In tables and diagrams the results are summarized. Finally, for the condition of the receiving-water biocenosis class “2” the respective still permissible matter concentrations are proposed. They vary between 0.05 and 0.2 mg/1.