Logging Out: Forestry, Transport and the Health of Hokianga Communities

This paper reports on log transportation as a health-related issue in the Hokianga district of Northland at a time when forestry activity in the area is expanding and radical reforms to New Zealand's roading network have been proposed. Drawing on technical information and key informant interviews, the potential impacts of logging trucks on Hokianga roads are considered, the costs associated with forestry traffic are estimated, and the routes most likely to be affected are identified. Possible responses to the log transport problem are discussed, and it is concluded that rural communities such as Hokianga are vulnerable to both logging truck activity and changes in government policy.     

Frozen Ground Phenomena in the Vicinity of Terra Nova Bay, Northern Victoria land, Antarctica: A Preliminary Report

Frozen ground phenomena in the Northern Foothills, Northern Victoria Land, Antarctica, include large–scale polygons, 15–20 m in diameter, and small frost mounds, 1–5 m high. The polygons are most widespread on terrain formed upon Younger Drift and are usually surrounded by interpolygon furrows or troughs, 10–30 cm deep and 10–100 cm wide. The troughs contain shallow wedges of sandy gravel (sand wedges) near the surface but excavations into underlying permafrost indicate that small ice wedges or ice veins are locally present. Field and anecdotal evidence suggest that thermal contraction cracking is active under today's climate. Frost mounds occur in association with a number of perennially frozen lakes in the region. In most cases they appear related to frost and icing blister activity caused by the episodic injection of free water from below. The debris–covered nature of the centre of Enigma Lake is best explained in terms of basal ice accretion beneath the lake–ice cover.     

Stochastic model-based methods for handling uncertainty in areal interpolation

Handling of uncertainty in the estimation of values from source areas to target areas poses a challenge in areal interpolation research. Stochastic model-based methods offer a basis for incorporating such uncertainty, but to date they have not been widely adopted by the GIS community. In this article, we propose one use of such methods based in the problem of interpolating count data from a source set of zones (parishes) to a more widely used target zone geography (postcode sectors). The model developed also uses ancillary statistical count data for a third set of areas nested within both source and target zones. The interpolation procedure was implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, enabling us to take account of all sources of uncertainty included in the model. Distributions of estimated values at the target zone level are presented using both summary statistics and as individual realisations selected to illustrate the degree of uncertainty in the interpolation results. We aim to describe the use of such stochastic approaches in an accessible way and to highlight the need for quantifying estimation uncertainty arising in areal interpolation, especially given the implications arising when interpolated values are used in subsequent analyses of relationships.     

Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using logistic regression

This work has evaluated the probability of earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence in the whole of El Salvador, with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and a logistic regression model. Slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness are the predictor variables used to determine the dependent variable of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results illustrate the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model — using only these two variables the analysis returned a significance level of 89.4%. The results obtained from the model within the GIS were then used to produce a map of relative landslide susceptibility.