Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments

Summary In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.     

Role of land-surface temperature feedback on model performance for the stable boundary layer

At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme, in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role.     

冕洞演化与太阳活动周的关系及在日地预报中的应用

冕洞的研究在近二十多年里取得了丰硕的成果。本文回顾了冕洞的发现及观测历史，系统阐述了冕洞的结构特征、形成及演化规律，讨论了冕洞对日地空间产生的影响，冕洞与超级活动区的关系以及冕洞在太阳活动预报中所起的作用，在此基础上利用１９７０—１９９５年的冕洞资料对冕洞的时空分布和磁极性演化规律与太阳活动周的关系，以及冕洞与太阳风速度、地磁扰动等方面进行分析研究，得出以下结论：（１）冕洞在南北半球的分布在形态上基本是对称的，但在冕洞数量上北半球稍占优势；（２）冕洞的盛衰演化呈周期性，表现为赤道冕洞周期与黑子周期是完全一致的，极冕洞周期与黑子周期相位相差１８０°；（３）赤道冕洞的纬度分布随太阳活动周上升而上升，当太阳活动周达到极大值时，它也达到极大，然后再随太阳活动周下降而下降，极冕洞的纬度延伸方向演化与赤道冕洞相反；（４）极冕洞的极场呈１１年周期性，并且极场反转出现在太阳活动峰年期间；（５）太阳风和地磁扰动与冕洞的演化有着密切的关系     

The rms–flux relations in different branches in Cyg X-2

In this paper, the rms-flux (root mean square-flux) relation along the Z-track of the bright Z-Source Cyg X-2 is analyzed using the observational data of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). Three types of rms-flux relations, i.e. positive, negative, and ‘arch’-like correlations are found in different branches. The rms is positively correlated with flux in normal branch (NB), but anti-correlated in the vertical horizontal branch (VHB). The rms–flux relation shows an ‘arch’-like shape in the horizontal branch (HB). We also try to explain this phenomenon using existing models.     

Effects of beta-naphthoflavone on hepatic biotransformation and glutathione biosynthesis in largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides)

We are investigating the effects of in vivo exposure of prototypical enzyme inducing agents on hepatic biotransformation enzyme expression in largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), a predatory game fish found throughout the United States and Canada. The current study targeted those genes involved in biotransformation and oxidative stress that may be regulated by Ah-receptor-dependent pathways. Exposure of bass to beta-naphthoflavone (beta-NF, 66 mg/kg, i.p.) elicited a 7-9-fold increase in hepatic microsomal cytochrome P4501A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activities, but did not affect cytosolic GST catalytic activities toward 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB) or 5-androstene-3,17-dione (ADI). Glutathione S-transferase A (GST-A) mRNA expression exhibited a transient, but non-significant increase following exposure to beta-NF, and generally tracked the minimal changes observed in GST-CDNB activities. Expression of the mRNA encoding glutamate-cysteine ligase catalytic subunit (GCLC), the rate-limiting enzyme in glutathione (GSH) biosynthesis, was increased 1.7-fold by beta-NF. Changes in GCLC mRNA expression were paralleled by increases in intracellular GSH. In summary, largemouth bass hepatic CYP1A-dependent and GSH biosynthetic pathways, and to a lesser extent GST, are responsive to exposure to beta-NF.     

The Llullaillaco volcano, northwest Argentina: construction by Pleistocene volcanism and destruction by sector collapse

Llullaillaco is one of a chain of Quaternary stratovolcanoes that defines the present Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), and marks the border between Chile and Argentina/Bolivia. The current edifice is constructed from a series of thick dacitic lava flows, forming the second tallest active volcano in the world (6739 m). K–Ar and new biotite laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step-heating dates indicate that the volcano was constructed during the Pleistocene (≤1.5 Ma), with a youngest date of 0.048±0.012 Ma being recorded for a fresh dacite flow that descends the southern flank. Additional ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar measurements for andesitic and dacitic lava flows from the surrounding volcanic terrain yield dates of between 11.94±0.13 Ma and 5.48±0.07 Ma, corresponding to an extended period of Miocene volcanism which defines much of the landscape in this region. Major- and trace-element compositions of lavas from Llullaillaco are typical of Miocene–Pleistocene volcanic rocks from the western margin of the CVZ, and are related to relatively shallow-dipping subduction of the Nazca plate beneath northern Chile and Argentina.Oversteepening of the edifice by stacking of thick, viscous, dacitic lava flows resulted in collapse of its southeastern flank to form a large volcanic debris avalanche. Biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of lava blocks from the avalanche deposit indicate that collapse occurred at or after 0.15 Ma, and may have been triggered by extrusion of a dacitic flow similar to the one dated at 0.048±0.012 Ma. The avalanche deposits are exceptionally well preserved due to the arid climate, and prominent levées, longitudinal ridges, and megablocks up to 20-m diameter are observed.The avalanche descended 2.8 km vertically, and bifurcated around an older volcano, Cerro Rosado, before debouching onto the salt flats of Salina de Llullaillaco. The north and south limbs of the avalanche traveled 25 and 23 km, respectively, and together cover an area of approximately 165 km². Estimates of deposit volume are hampered by a lack of thickness information except at the edges, but it is likely to be between 1 and 2 km³. Equivalent coefficients of friction of 0.11 and 0.12, and excess travel distances of 20.5 and 18.5 km, are calculated for the north and south limbs, respectively. The avalanche ascended 400 m where it broke against the western flank of Cerro Rosado, and a minimum flow velocity of 90 m s⁻¹ can be calculated at this point; lower velocities of 45 m s⁻¹ are calculated where distal toes ascend 200 m slopes.It is suggested that the remaining precipitous edifice has a high probability for further avalanche collapse in the event of renewed volcanism.     

Long-Term variations in water levels in the Volga mouth area and their dependence on the Caspian Sea level variations

Long-term water level variations in the Volga mouth area and the effect exerted on them by the river’s flow and the Caspian Sea’s level variations are considered. Quantitative relationships were identified between the mean annual water levels at different gages in the mouth and the sea level. A backwater component was isolated in the long-term variations in water level in the Volga mouth area. Relationships between the daily water levels in the mouth and the Caspian Sea’s level at fixed water flow in the delta apex are presented. The magnitude and the propagation distance of backwater from the sea into the delta are specified. The responses of the mouth areas of rivers emptying into the Caspian Sea to sea level variations in the past century are compared.