Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Modified mild slope equation and open boundary conditions

A numerical model to compute wave field is developed. It is based on the Berkhoff diffraction-refraction equation, in which an energy dissipation term is added, to take into account the breaking and the bottom friction phenomena. The energy dissipation function, by breaking and by bottom friction, is introduced in the Berkhoff equation to obtain a new equation of propagation.The resolution is done with the hybrid finite element method, where lagrangians elements are used.     

Vertical distribution of the macrobenthic community and its relationships to trace metals and natural sediment characteristics in the lower Douro estuary, Portugal

Vertical distribution (0–15 cm) of the macrobenthic community and its relationships to natural sediment characteristics and trace metal contents and bioavailability were studied at five locations in the lower Douro estuary, Portugal. An analysis of vertical metal distribution, for the interpretation of anthropogenic impact on the estuarine sediments, was also investigated. Sediment characterisation included organic matter, grain size, metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cd, Zn and Mn), acid volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM). The macrobenthic community had low diversity (14 species), was dominated by small size opportunists and seemed to be controlled mainly by natural factors such as grain size distribution, Al and Fe contents and sediment depth. The vertically heterogeneous distribution of macrobenthic community appears to affect redox status of the sediments and consequently metal bioavailability. Despite anthropogenic contamination in terms of Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr and Ni having already been detected in the north bank, the analysis of vertical distribution was essential for the identification of current anthropogenic contamination in terms of Zn, Pb and Cd in the south bank.     

Record-breaking chemical destruction of ozone in the arctic during the winter of 2004/2005

The extremely cold winter of 2004/2005 was accompanied by an intensive formation of polar stratospheric clouds and a significant chemical destruction of ozone. The results of calculating chemical losses of ozone in the polar cyclone from the SAGE-III satellite data are given. Over the period January 1–March 25, 2005, at the isentropic levels 450–500 K, about 60% of ozone was destroyed. During that winter, the zone of formation of polar stratospheric clouds went down to levels with very low values of potential temperature (down to 350 K), thus resulting in a noticeable destruction of ozone at low altitudes. By March 25, 2005, the chemical losses of total ozone attained 116 ± 10 DU (128 ± 10 DU at the cyclone boundary), which is a recordbreaking value of the Arctic.     

Numerical simulation of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea

The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.     

Spatial variability in growth and reproduction of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg, 1793) along the west European coast

The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was introduced in Europe for commercial purposes in the mid 1960s. It was initially thought that low winter temperatures would restrain this species' reproduction and settlement; however, its present distribution in areas where no introduction has taken place suggests that natural invasion and expansion has occurred. Along the European coast, wild populations of Pacific oysters are already found from northern Germany to southern Portugal. Whether C. gigas will continue to further expand through northern waters will depend on its physiological performance. In this study, the performance of wild oyster populations has been studied in terms of growth and reproduction at three stations: La Rochelle (France; 46°N), Yerseke (Oosterschelde estuary, The Netherlands, 51°N), and Texel (Wadden Sea estuary, The Netherlands, 53°N). The French population had the lowest somatic-shell mass ratio and an increase in maximum shell length, somatic and gonadal mass was observed from France to the Netherlands. In addition, mean oocyte diameter decreased significantly from south to north. The combination of increasing gonadal mass and decreasing oocyte volume suggests an increasing reproductive output in terms of egg numbers from France to The Netherlands. Differences in temperature between locations will at least be partly responsible for the observed patterns; however, other environmental factors (such as food availability, predation pressure, sediment type and/or seston concentration) cannot be excluded. Since smaller eggs (oocytes) are thought to have a longer development time, the environmental conditions along the Dutch coast may result in increased larval dispersal and possibly in further population expansion.     

Growth and reproduction of the bivalve Spisula subtruncata (da Costa) in Dutch coastal waters

The bivalve Spisula subtruncata is usually abundant in shallow coastal waters along the Dutch coast. However, its biomass has been decreasing since 1995. In order to assess whether reproductive failure may be the cause of the observed decline over the last decades, the energy investment in reproduction of a population of S. subtruncata from central Dutch coastal waters was studied. The population studied consisted of individuals of up to four years old. Shell length reached maximum values of around 32 mm and individual total body, somatic and gonadal ash-free dry mass reached maximum values of about 278 mg AFDM, 252 mg AFDM and 76 mg AFDM, respectively. A clear seasonal cycle in somatic and gonadal mass was observed. Somatic and gonadal mass indices increased in early spring and reached maximum values during summer, followed by a decrease to minimum values at the beginning of the following year. Spawning was in June–July and settlement of spat seems to have occurred in July–August. Mean oocyte diameter was 57.43 ± 0.03 μm, corresponding to a volume of 98972 μm³. These results suggested that reproductive failure was not the cause of the current population decline. Most likely, unsuccessful settlement of spat and/or severe predation during the first months of life were responsible for the observed patterns.