Pollution history and recovery of a boreal lake exposed to a heavy bleached pulping effluent load

We examined the effects of heavy pulp mill discharges on the Lake Lievestuoreenjärvi ecosystem and the later recovery of diatom and chironomid communities from age-dated short core samples. Beginning in 1927 the lake received a heavy effluent load from a sulphite pulp mill. Except for the recession during the Second World War and the temporary closure of the mill from 1967 to 1971, the industrial load, containing large quantities of nutrients, organic matter and toxic compounds, increased continuously. In the early 1980s, laboratory documents were falsified by the directors of the mill and the systematic illegal effluent overload led to a collapse of the whole lake ecosystem. In 1985, the outdated plant was finally closed down. Based on the assessment of chemical properties and biological remains of the sediment, we distinguished five developmental phases in the ecological state of the lake. In the pre-industrial phase, the pelagic and profundal benthic communities were dominated by species preferring ultraoligotrophic or oligotrophic lakes. Concomitant with the increasing discharge and deposition of chlorine compounds, resin acids, and mercury, as well as strong acidity and hypolimnetic and epilimnetic anoxia, the ecological status changed in a short period from excellent to bad. Finally, in the early 1960s, the majority of the lake was virtually dead and the aquatic life survived only in the uppermost littoral zone. Since 1985, a fast recovery in the water quality has led to a strong, but temporary eutrophy in pelagic communities. The main peak of eutrophication was caused by the invasion of a species new to the lake,Aulacoseira granulata var.angustissima. Later, the pelagic communities shifted towards oligotrophy, but the original, pre-industrial status has not been re-established. The profundal benthic communities have not achieved the pre-industrial structure, but at present indicate mesotrophy.     

Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

A constrained 2D gravity model of the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin, Baja California Sur, Mexico

The subsurface geometry of the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin is obtained from the 2D inversion of gravity data, constrained by a density-versus-depth relationship derived from an oil exploration deep hole. The basin accumulated a thick pile of marine sediments that evolved in the fore-arc region of the compressive margin prevalent along western North America during Mesozoic and Tertiary times. Our interpretation indicates that the sedimentary infill in the Sebastián Vizcaíno Basin reaches a maximum thickness of about 4 km at the centre of a relatively symmetric basin. At the location of the Suaro-1 hole, the depth to the basement derived from this work agrees with the drilled interface between calcareous and volcaniclastic members of the Alisitos Formation. A sensitivity analysis strongly suggests that the assumed density function leads to a nearly unique solution of the inverse problem.