基于GIS/RS的洪涝灾害承灾极限遥感估算方法

利用ＧＩＳ和遥感技术相结合的方式进行洪涝灾害灾情调查和损失评估,可以采用一种新的方法──洪涝灾害承灾极限估算法。洪涝灾害承灾极限是区域稳定性的一种表述方式,而灾害条件下区域的稳定性取决于人－地系统中致灾因中的Ｅ｛ｋ｝和承灾因子的Ｅ｛ｋ｝及致灾因子和承灾因中之间的耦合关系Ｅ｛ｋ,ｋ｝。本文从原理和方法上对此作了阐述,根据承灾极限计算原理,在ＤＥＭ数据的支持下,利用洪水期实时图像和正常水位时期遥感图像提取的信息,可以进行洪涝灾害的灾情评估。     

蒙古国植被自然恢复潜力

植被自然恢复能力评估是生态恢复实践的重要内容。基于蒙古国的MODIS EVI植被指数产品、气象数据及土壤数据,依据相似生境原则,构建了植被恢复潜力计算模式,计算得到蒙古国植被恢复潜力值（VRP,可代表在自然条件下区域植被能够恢复到的最佳状况）及植被恢复潜力指数（VRPI,代表植被生长现状与最大潜力之间的差距）,并用蒙古国纵贯铁路沿线长期围封区的采样分析数据进行了验证。结果表明：（1）蒙古国整体上具有较高的植被恢复潜力,植被自然恢复潜力值0.6—0.9;（2）受降水、气温、土壤等自然要素组配的空间分异影响,蒙古国植被自然恢复潜力具有较大的空间差异性,其中北部及东部地区为VRP高值区和VRPI低值区,植被轻度退化,且较容易恢复;南部及西部地区为VRP中低值区和VRPI高值区,植被退化程度较重,恢复难度相对较大。     

科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险评价

基于气象、土地利用类型与植被覆盖指数等数据,采用层次分析法与加权综合评分法评价了科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险。结果表明：1995、2000、2010年科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险指数平均值分别为0.420、0.428、0.437,16年来科尔沁沙地沙漠化处于高度风险水平。科尔沁沙地沙漠化风险等级在空间分布上表现为北部与西部沙漠化风险等级低,南部与东部为沙漠化高风险区。1995-2010年科尔沁沙地各旗县沙漠化风险等级存在差异,开鲁县的沙漠化风险由高度风险转变为极高度风险等级,扎鲁特旗的沙漠化风险由中度风险转变为低度风险等级,敖汉旗、巴林右旗、科尔沁区与科尔沁左翼中旗的沙漠化风险等级波动变化,其余旗县的沙漠化风险等级未变化。1995-2010年科尔沁沙地沙漠化中度,高度风险等级的面积分别减少了16 544.76、4 223.25 km²,低度,极高度风险等级的面积分别增加了16 544.76、4 223.25 km²。区域沙漠化风险的主要影响因素为年降水量、年均风速、植被覆盖指数、沙漠化土地面积与载畜量,植被覆盖指数增加有助于区域沙漠化风险的降低。     

苔藓结皮复配凹凸棒基高吸水性固沙材料的生理特性

综合性固沙技术在荒漠治理方面有着良好的发展前景。通过研究荒漠苔藓与凹凸棒基高吸水性树脂固沙材料的复配质量比与接种量对苔藓结皮的生长状态与生理特性的影响,探索和优化生物固沙与化学固沙技术相结合的技术途径。结果表明：温度和光照一定时,荒漠苔藓与凹凸棒基高吸水性固沙材料以质量比1∶4复配,以接种量500g·m^-2洒于沙面,所形成的苔藓结皮发育状况最佳。     

基于鲸鱼优化算法的长短期记忆模型水库洪水预报

洪涝灾害是世界主要自然灾害之一,优化洪水预报方案对防洪决策至关重要,然而传统水文模型存在参数多、调参受人为因素影响,泛化能力弱等问题。针对上述问题,本文提出基于改进的鲸鱼优化算法和长短期记忆网络构建自动优化参数的WOA-LSTM模型,通过优化神经网络结构进一步增强该模型的稳定性和精确度,并且建立不同预见期下的洪水预报模型来分析讨论神经网络结构与预报期之间的关系。以横锦水库流域1986—1997年洪水资料为例,其中以流域7个雨量站点的降雨以及横锦站水文资料为输入,不同预见期下洪水过程作为输出,以1986—1993年作为模型的率定期,1994—1997年作为模型的检验期,研究结果表明:(1)以峰现时差、确定性系数、径流深误差和洪峰流量误差作为评价指标,相比较于LSTM模型和新安江模型对检验期的模拟结果表明WOA-LSTM模型拥有更高的精度、预报结果更稳定;(2)结合置换特征值和SHAP法分析模型特征值重要性,增强了神经网络模型的可解释性;(3)通过改变神经网络结构在一定程度避免由于预见期增加和数据关联性下降而导致的模型预报精度下降的问题,最终实验表明该模型在预见期1~6 h下都可以满足横锦水库的洪水预报要求,可以为当地的防洪决策提供依据。     

数值预报产品与天气学结合的体会

文章主要阐述了如何将数值预报产品与天气学预报经验有机的结合起来。天气学着重研究天气系统进入本地区前各方面的动态变化,从中找出它的变化规律,再利用这些规律预测未来如何演变。数值预报从初始场开始,计算它的运动轨迹,着重研究大气环流和天气形势未来变化。虽然它们的研究起点、研究重点不同,但方向一致。把二者有机结合起来,可以形成从过去、现在到未来的一个完整的链条,从而有力的促进了预报质量的提高。     

固沙植被区土壤质地与土壤微生物数量的关系

土壤微生物是荒漠生态系统的重要组分,参与成土过程与生物地球化学循环,其数量反映土壤质量,是判别退化生态系统恢复程度的重要指标。选取沙坡头固沙植被区土壤中的真菌、细菌、放线菌数量进行研究,分析了其时空分布、恢复特征及影响因子。结果表明：土壤微生物数量随固沙年限增加而增加,随土层深度增加而减少,夏秋季显著大于冬春季。三大类群微生物数量恢复曲线均呈现S型,在固沙植被建立18~24 a后恢复速率达到峰值,24~36 a后数量能够达到天然植被区的31.6%~83.7%。土壤微生物数量恢复过程主要受土壤细物质含量的影响,土壤pH是限制因子。土壤微生物对土壤状况与覆被变化敏感,能较早且敏感地指示生态系统功能的变化。     

Variation and relationship between soil moisture and environmental factors in the source region of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2016

This study analyzed soil moisture, soil erosion, and vegetation in the source region of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2016. We found that soil moisture showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2009 but decreased from 2009 to 2016. The surface soil moisture was severely affected by seasonal changes in the source region of the Yangtze River, especially in the soil from 0 to 40 cm. However, seasonal variation of soil moisture deeper than 40 cm was different from that in the upper layer. Soil moisture below 40 cm wasn't affected by the seasonal variation. Soil moisture from 0 to 50 cm and the average thickness of wind deposition showed a positive correlation in the study area from 2005 to 2016. For environmental protection in the source region of the Yangtze River, wind deposition played a role in water retention. Similarly, a positive correlation also existed between the average thickness of wind erosion and soil moisture. Deep-soil moisture was the key factor for vegetation structure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results are also helpful for further understanding the variation of soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau and providing a scientific basis for effectively protecting and controlling the ecological environment in the future.     

The Gas to Dust Ratio in Three Star Forming Regionstwo

Gas to Dust Ratio (GDR) indicates the mass ratio of interstellar gas to dust. It is widely adopted that the GDR in our Galaxy is 100～150. We choose three typical star forming regions to study the GDR: the Orion molecular cloud — a massive star forming region, the Taurus molecular cloud — a low-mass star forming region, and the Polaris molecular cloud — a region with no or very few star formation activities. The mass of gas only takes account of the neutral gas, i.e. only the atomic and molecular hydrogen, because the amount of ionized gas is very small in a molecular cloud. The column density of atomic hydrogen is taken from the high-resolution and high-sensitivity all-sky survey EBHIS (Effelsberg-Bonn HI Survey). The CO J = 1 →0 line is used to trace the molecular hydrogen, since the spectral lines of molecular hydrogen which can be detected are rare. The intensity of CO J = 1 →0 line is taken from the Planck all-sky survey. The mass of dust is traced by the interstellar extinction based on the 2MASS (Two Micron All Sky Survey) photometric database in the direction of anti-Galactic center. Adopting a constant conversion coefficient from the integrated intensity of the CO line to the column density of molecular hydrogen, X_CO = 2.0 × 10²⁰ cm^?2 · (K · km/s)^?1, the gas to dust ratio N(H)/A_V is calculated, which is 25, 38, and 55 (in units of 10²⁰ cm^?2 · mag^?1) for the Orion, Taurus, and Polaris molecular clouds, respectively. These values are significantly higher than the previously obtained average value of the Galaxy. Adopting the WD01 interstellar dust model (when the V-band selective extinction ratio is R_V = 3.1), the derived GDRs are 160, 243, and 354 for the Orion, Taurus, and Polaris molecular clouds, respectively, which are apparently higher than 100～150, the commonly accepted GDR of the diffuse interstellar medium. The high N(H)/A_V values in the star forming regions may be explained by the growth of dust in the molecular clouds because of either the particle collision or accretion, which can lead to the reduction of extinction efficiency per unit mass in the V band, rather than the increase of the GDR itself.     

Metamorphic,deformation, fluids and geological significance of low-temperature retrograde mylonites of Diancangshan metamorphic massif along Ailaoshan-Red River strike-slip fault zone,Yunnan, China

Diancangshan metamorphic massif is one of the four metamorphic massifs developed along the Ailaoshan-Red River strike-slip fault zone, Yunnan, China. It has experienced multi-stage metamorphism and deformation, especially since the late Oligocene it widely suffered high-temperature ductile shear deformation and exhumation of the metamorphic rocks from the deep crust to the shallow surface. Based on the previous research and geological field work, this paper presents a detailed study on deformation and metamorphism, and exhumation of deep metamorphic rocks within the Diancangshan metamorphic massif, especially focusing on the low-temperature overprinted retrogression metamorphism and deformation of mylonitic rocks. With the combinated experimental techniques of optical microscope, electron backscatter diffraction attachmented on field-emission scanning electron microscopy and cathodoluminescence, our contribution reports the microstructure, lattice preferred orientations of the deformed minerals, and the changes of mineral composition phases of the superposition low-temperature retrograde mylonites. All these results indicate that: (1) Diancangshan deep metamorphic rock has experienced early high-temperature left-lateral shear deformation and late extension with rapid exhumation, the low-temperature retrogression metamorphism and deformation overprinted the high-temperature metamorphism, and the high-temperature microstructure and texture are in part or entirely altered by subsequent low-temperature shearing; (2) the superposition of low-temperature deformation-metamorphism occurs at the ductile-brittle transition; and (3) the fluid is quite active during the syn-tectonic shearing overprinted low-temperature deformation and metamorphism. The dynamic recrystallization and/or fractures to micro-fractures result in the strongly fine-grained of the main minerals, and present strain localization in micro-domians, such as micro-shear zones in the mylonites. It is often accompanied by the decrease of rock strength and finally influences the rheology of the whole rock during further deformation and exhumation of the Diancangshan massif.