A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Impact of irrigated agriculture on groundwater-recharge salinity: a major sustainability concern in semi-arid regions

Intensive irrigated agriculture substantially modifies the hydrological cycle and often has major environmental impacts. The article focuses upon a specific concern—the tendency for progressive long-term increases in the salinity of groundwater recharge derived from irrigated permeable soils and replenishment of unconfined aquifers in more arid regions. This process has received only scant attention in the water-resource literature and has not been considered by agricultural science. This work makes an original contribution by analysing, from scientific principles, how the salinisation of groundwater recharge arises and identifies the factors affecting its severity. If not proactively managed, the process eventually will impact irrigation waterwell salinity, the productivity of agriculture itself, and can even lead to land abandonment. The types of management measure required for mitigation are discussed through three detailed case histories of areas with high-value groundwater-irrigated agriculture (in Spain, Argentina and Pakistan), which provide a long-term perspective on the evolution of the problem over various decades.     

Tidal Stage Changes in Structure and Diversity of Intertidal Benthic Diatom Assemblages: a Case Study from Two Contrasting Charleston Harbor Flats

Benthic microalgae are key contributors to near-shore food webs and sediment stabilization. Temporal variability in microalgal biomass and production throughout the tidal cycle has been well documented; however, due to limitations of traditional methods of analysis patterns of community composition and diversity over such time scales have not been revealed. To explore the latter and better understand how short-term changes throughout the tidal cycle may affect community functioning, we compared benthic diatom composition and diversity over tidal stage shifts. We employed two disparate molecular techniques (denaturing gel gradient electrophoresis with Sanger DNA sequencing of excised bands and high-throughput community metagenome sequencing) to characterize diatom assemblages in representative muddy and sandy intertidal sites in Charleston Harbor, SC, USA. In support of prior studies, we found higher diatom diversity in sandbar as compared to mudflat sediments. Spatial differences were stronger relative to tidal temporal differences, although diversity metrics generally were highest after prolonged tidal immersion as compared to low-tide emersion or just after immersion at flood tide. Composition of the diatom assemblage differed markedly between sites, with species in genera Halamphora, Amphora, and Navicula dominating the sandbar, whereas Cyclotella, Skeletonema, and Thalassiosira were the most prevalent genera on the mudflat. Diatom composition differed by tidal stage, with assemblages during low-tide exposure distinct from samples taken after immersion. Both sandbar and mudflat sediments exhibited increases in relative proportion of epipelic diatoms and decreases in planktonic taxa during low-tide exposure. Our findings of short-term changes in species composition and dominance could inform primary productivity models to better estimate understudied diatom contributions in heterogeneous and highly variable tidal systems.     

Groundwater characteristics within loessic deposits: the coastal springs of Los Acantilados,Mar del Plata,Argentina

The urban growth of the southern neighborhoods of Mar del Plata City provoked significant changes in the groundwater balance of the loessic sequences. These regional loessic levels with a significant portion of volcanic ash layers were reported subject to fluoride and nitrate concentrations. Residential houses pump from sands located 70 m depth and withdraw the sewages to depths less than 5 m. These effects cause significant local and seasonal (summer) increments of the water table outcropping via springs at certain unconformities of the coastal cliffs. A mathematical model was applied to analyze the water level lowering at the productive levels, while there is a decrease in the quality of the upper levels subject to waste discharges. Much of this groundwater flow is concentrated in unconformities between different types of sediments. Human activities have affected the aquifer dynamics increasing the groundwater pumping rates and the return velocity of the sewages. This should be considered in the management strategies of coastal hydric resources.     

Synthesis of monticellite–forsterite and merwinite–forsterite symplectites in the CaO–MgO–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> model system: influence of temperature and water content on microstructure evolution

Homogeneous single crystals of synthetic monticellite with the composition \({\text{Ca}}_{0.88}{\text{Mg}}_{1.12}{\text{SiO}}_4\) (Mtc I) were annealed in a piston-cylinder apparatus at temperatures between 1000 and \(1200\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\), pressures of 1.0–1.4 GPa, for run durations from 10 min to 24 h and applying bulk water contents ranging from 0.0 to 0.5 wt% of the total charge. At these conditions, Mtc I breaks down to a fine-grained, symplectic intergrowth. Thereby, two types of symplectites are produced: a first symplectite type (Sy I) is represented by an aggregate of rod-shaped forsterite immersed in a matrix of monticellite with end-member composition (Mtc II), and a second symplectite type (Sy II) takes the form of a lamellar merwinite–forsterite intergrowth. Both symplectites may form simultaneously, where the formation of Sy I is favoured by the presence of water. Sy I is metastable with respect to Sy II and is successively replaced by the latter. For both symplectite types, the characteristic spacing of the symplectite phases is independent of run duration and is only weeakly influenced by the water content, but it is strongly temperature dependent. It varies from about 400 nm at \(1000\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) to 1200 nm at \(1100\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) in Sy I, and from 300 nm at \(1000\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) to 700 nm at \(1200\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) in Sy II. A thermodynamic analysis reveals that the temperature dependence of the characteristic spacing of the symplectite phases is due to a relatively high activation energy for chemical segregation by diffusion within the reaction front as compared to the activation energy for interface reactions at the reaction front. The temperature dependence of the characteristic lamellar spacing and the temperature-time dependence of overall reaction progress have potential for applications in geo-thermometry and geo-speedometry.