An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

Sewage treatment level and flow rates affect polychaete assemblages

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive (UWWTD) aim to improve water quality and reduce the environmental impact of wastewater, by requiring member states to introduce better treatment levels. This study was carried out in order to detect the most suitable treatment type or flow level for reducing benthic environmental impact. Therefore, soft-bottom polychaete assemblages affected by discharges of six treatment plants, with different treatment technologies and flow rates, were analysed over three consecutive years. Polychaete assemblages changed as a result of sewage discharge. These changes were related to treatment level and flow rates. Both disposal quality and quantity are important since changes in soft-bottom assemblages in stations affected by pre-treated sewage with medium and high flow rates are observed. However, the location with a low-flow pre-treated effluent has similar polychaete assemblages with regard to locations with biological treatment or controls.     

Environmental Radioxenon Levels in Europe: a Comprehensive Overview

Activity concentration data from ambient radioxenon measurements in ground level air, which were carried out in Europe in the framework of the International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE) in support of the development and build-up of a radioxenon monitoring network for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification regime are presented and discussed. Six measurement stations provided data from 5 years of measurements performed between 2003 and 2008: Longyearbyen (Spitsbergen, Norway), Stockholm (Sweden), Dubna (Russian Federation), Schauinsland Mountain (Germany), Bruyères-le-Châtel and Marseille (both France). The noble gas systems used within the INGE are designed to continuously measure low concentrations of the four radioxenon isotopes which are most relevant for detection of nuclear explosions: ^131mXe, ^133mXe, ¹³³Xe and ¹³⁵Xe with a time resolution less than or equal to 24 h and a minimum detectable concentration of ¹³³Xe less than 1 mBq/m³. This European cluster of six stations is particularly interesting because it is highly influenced by a high density of nuclear power reactors and some radiopharmaceutical production facilities. The activity concentrations at the European INGE stations are studied to characterise the influence of civilian releases, to be able to distinguish them from possible nuclear explosions. It was found that the mean activity concentration of the most frequently detected isotope, ¹³³Xe, was 5–20 mBq/m³ within Central Europe where most nuclear installations are situated (Bruyères-le-Châtel and Schauinsland), 1.4–2.4 mBq/m³ just outside that region (Stockholm, Dubna and Marseille) and 0.2 mBq/m³ in the remote polar station of Spitsbergen. No seasonal trends could be observed from the data. Two interesting events have been examined and their source regions have been identified using atmospheric backtracking methods that deploy Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling and inversion techniques. The results are consistent with known releases of a radiopharmaceutical facility.     

Analysis of the contribution of natural sources of radiation to the total dose received by workers

People working with ionising radiation are receiving radiation coming from artificial and natural sources. In Spain, as in many other countries, there is a serious control by the national authorities, Spanish Nuclear Safety Council, of the dose the workers receive from artificial sources. However, until the publication of the European Basic Safety Standards Directive, 96/29/EURATOM, the old criteria referring to the “above natural background” were widely used. This directive was incorporated to the Spanish legislation in July 2001 (BOE 178); in its Title VII it recommends to evaluate the dose coming from natural sources and take it into account for establishing the safety criteria. It is noteworthy to assess the natural doses received at homes and the dose received by workers of radioactive installations subject to regulations, and to compare the two results. The social and economical implications of the results derived can be important in the practical application of the recommendations included in the above-mentioned BOE 178 Directive.     

Extension of observed flood series by combining a distributed hydro-meteorological model and a copula-based model

Long flood series are required to accurately estimate flood quantiles associated with high return periods, in order to design and assess the risk in hydraulic structures such as dams. However, observed flood series are commonly short. Flood series can be extended through hydro-meteorological modelling, yet the computational effort can be very demanding in case of a distributed model with a short time step is considered to obtain an accurate flood hydrograph characterisation. Statistical models can also be used, where the copula approach is spreading for performing multivariate flood frequency analyses. Nevertheless, the selection of the copula to characterise the dependence structure of short data series involves a large uncertainty. In the present study, a methodology to extend flood series by combining both approaches is introduced. First, the minimum number of flood hydrographs required to be simulated by a spatially distributed hydro-meteorological model is identified in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates obtained by both copula and marginal distributions. Second, a large synthetic sample is generated by a bivariate copula-based model, reducing the computation time required by the hydro-meteorological model. The hydro-meteorological modelling chain consists of the RainSim stochastic rainfall generator and the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) rainfall-runoff model. The proposed procedure is applied to a case study in Spain. As a result, a large synthetic sample of peak-volume pairs is stochastically generated, keeping the statistical properties of the simulated series generated by the hydro-meteorological model. This method reduces the computation time consumed. The extended sample, consisting of the joint simulated and synthetic sample, can be used for improving flood risk assessment studies.     

Output-only identification of the modal and physical properties of structures using free vibration response

The viability of a complete structural characterization of civil structures is explored and discussed. In particular, the identification of modal (i.e. natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes) and physical properties (i.e. mass and stiffness) using only the structure’s free decay response is studied. To accomplish this, modal analysis from free vibration response only (MAFVRO) and mass modification (MM) methodologies are engaged along with Wavelet based techniques for optimal signal processing and modal reconstruction. The methodologies are evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The simulated data are extracted from a simple elastic model of a 5 story shear building and from a more realistic nonlinear model of a RC frame structure. The experimental data are gathered from shake table test of a 2-story scaled shear building. Guidelines for the reconstruction procedure from the data are proposed as the quality of the identified properties is shown to be governed by adequate selection of the frequency bands and optimal modal shape reconstruction. Moreover, in cases where the structure has undergone damage, the proposed identification scheme can also be applied for preliminary assessment of structural health.     

Anisotropic visco-hypoplasticity

Apart from time-driven creep or relaxation, most viscoplastic models (without plastic and viscous strain separation) generate no or a very limited accumulation of strain or stress due to cyclic loading. Such pseudo-relaxation (or pseudo-creep) is either absent or dwindles too fast with increasing OCR. For example, the accumulation of the pore water pressure and eventual liquefaction due to cyclic loading cannot be adequately reproduced. The proposed combination of a viscous model and a hypoplastic model can circumvent this problem. The novel visco-hypoplasticity model presented in the paper is based on an anisotropic preconsolidation surface. It can distinguish between the undrained strength upon triaxial vertical loading and horizontal loading. The strain-induced anisotropy is described using a second-order structure tensor. The implicit time integration with the consistent Jacobian matrix is presented. For the tensorial manipulation including numerous Fréchet derivatives, a special package has been developed within the algebra program MATHEMATICA (registered trade mark of Wolfram Research Inc.). The results can be conveniently coded using a special FORTRAN 90 module for tensorial operations. Simulations of element tests from biaxial apparatus and FE calculations are also shown.     

High-performance three-horizon composition algorithm for large-scale terrains

This work presents a high-performance algorithm to compute the horizon in very large high-resolution DEMs. We used Stewart's algorithm as the core of our implementation and considered that the horizon has three components: the ground, near, and far horizons. To eliminate the edge-effect, we introduced a multi-resolution halo method. Moreover, we used a new data partition approach, to substantially increase the parallelism in the algorithm. In addition, several optimizations have been applied to considerably reduce the number of arithmetical operations in the core of the algorithm. The experimental results have demonstrated that by applying the above-described contributions, the proposed algorithm is more than twice faster than Stewart's algorithm while maintaining the same accuracy.     

Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge

Abstract

This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year^-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year^-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year^-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity.

Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753.