The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Do we know each other? Bilateral ties and the location of clean development mechanism projects

This paper examines how bilateral ties between developed (home) countries and developing (host) countries influence the location of Clean Development Mechanism projects (CDMs). With the home-host country pair as the unit of analysis (2,058 country-pairs), we employ a logistic regression model to analyze decisions of home countries in selecting the location for their CDMs. We are most interested in examining how home countries’ familiarity with the host country influences CDM location decisions. The familiarity factors are: (1) colonial history; (2) bilateral trade; and (3) bilateral aid. Using a binary logistical model, we find that that bilateral familiarity factors strongly influence CDM location decisions. Further, with respect to host country characteristics, we find that total carbon dioxide emissions and UNFCCC specific domestic institutions influence CDM location decisions, but not general investment institutions or high carbon intensity of host country economies.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Statistical Analysis of Large-Scale EUV Waves Observed by STEREO/EUVI

We statistically analyzed the kinematical evolution and wave pulse characteristics of 60 strong large-scale EUV wave events that occurred during January 2007 to February 2011 with the STEREO twin spacecraft. For the start velocity, the arithmetic mean is 312±115 km?s^?1 (within a range of 100?–?630 km?s^?1). For the mean (linear) velocity, the arithmetic mean is 254±76 km?s^?1 (within a range of 130?–?470 km?s^?1). 52 % of all waves under study show a distinct deceleration during their propagation (a≤?50 m?s^?2), the other 48 % are consistent with a constant speed within the uncertainties (?50≤a≤50 m?s^?2). The start velocity and the acceleration are strongly anticorrelated with c≈?0.8, i.e. initially faster events undergo stronger deceleration than slower events. The (smooth) transition between constant propagation for slow events and deceleration in faster events occurs at an EUV wave start-velocity of v≈230 km?s^?1, which corresponds well to the fast-mode speed in the quiet corona. These findings provide strong evidence that the EUV waves under study are indeed large-amplitude fast-mode MHD waves. This interpretation is also supported by the correlations obtained between the peak velocity and the peak amplitude, impulsiveness, and build-up time of the disturbance. We obtained the following association rates of EUV wave events with other solar phenomena: 95 % are associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), 74 % to a solar flare, 15 % to interplanetary type II bursts, and 22 % to coronal type II bursts. These findings are consistent with the interpretation that the associated CMEs are the driving agents of the EUV waves.     

Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface Zonal Flow

We study the solar-cycle variation of the zonal flow in the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm covering the period from mid-2001 to mid-2013 or from the maximum of Cycle 23 through the rising phase of Cycle 24. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis. The zonal flow varies with the solar cycle showing bands of faster-than-average flows equatorward of the mean latitude of activity and slower-than-average flows on the poleward side. The fast band of the zonal flow and the magnetic activity appear first in the northern hemisphere during the beginning of Cycle 24. The bands of fast zonal flow appear at mid-latitudes about three years in the southern and four years in the northern hemisphere before magnetic activity of Cycle 24 is present. This implies that the flow pattern is a direct precursor of magnetic activity. The solar-cycle variation of the zonal flow also has a poleward branch, which is visible as bands of faster-than-average zonal flow near 50° latitude. This band appears first in the southern hemisphere during the rising phase of the Cycle 24 and migrates slowly poleward. These results are in good agreement with corresponding results from global helioseismology.     

On Dynamics of G-Band Bright Points

Various parameters describing the dynamics of G-band bright points (GBPs) were derived from G-band images, acquired by the Dutch Open Telescope (DOT), of a quiet region close to the disk center. Our study is based on four commonly used diagnostics (effective velocity, change in the effective velocity, change in the direction angle, and centrifugal acceleration) and two new ones (rate of motion and time lag between recurrence of GBPs). The results concerning the commonly used parameters are in agreement with previous studies for a comparable spatial and temporal resolution of the used data. The most probable value of the effective velocity is ～?0.9 km?s^?1, whereas we found a deviation of the effective velocity distribution from the expected Rayleigh function for velocities in the range from 2 to 4 km?s^?1. The change in the effective velocity distribution is consistent with a Gaussian one with FWHM=0.079 km?s^?2. The distribution of the centrifugal acceleration exhibits a highly exponential nature (a symmetric Gaussian centered at the zero value). To broaden our understanding of the dynamics of GBPs, two new parameters were defined: the real displacement between their appearance and disappearance (rate of motion) and the frequency of their recurrence at the same locations (time lag). For ～?45 % of the tracked GBPs, their displacement was found to be small compared to their size (the rate of motion smaller than one). The locations of the tracked GBPs mainly cover the boundaries of supergranules representing the network, and there is no significant difference in the locations of GBPs with small (m<1) and large (m>2) values of the rate of motion. We observed a difference in the overall trend of the obtained distribution for the values of the time lag smaller (slope of the trend line being ?0.14) and greater (?0.03) than ～?7 min. The time lags mostly lie within the interval of ～?2?–?3 min, with those up to ～?4 min being more abundant than longer ones. Results for both new parameters indicate that the locations of different dynamical types of GBPs (stable/farther traveling or with short/long lifetimes) are bound to the locations of more stable and long-living magnetic field concentrations. Thus, the disappearance/reappearance of the tracked GBPs cannot be perceived as the disappearance/reappearance of their corresponding magnetic field concentrations.     

Migration and Extension of Solar Active Longitudinal Zones

Solar active longitudes show a characteristic migration pattern in the Carrington coordinate system if they can be identified at all. By following this migration, the longitudinal activity distribution around the center of the band can be determined. The half-width of the distribution is found to be varying in Cycles 21?–?23, and in some time intervals it was as narrow as 20?–?30 degrees. It was more extended around a maximum but it was also narrow when the activity jumped to the opposite longitude. Flux emergence exhibited a quasi-periodic variation within the active zone with a period of about 1.3 years. The path of the active-longitude migration does not support the view that it might be associated with the 11-year solar cycle. These results were obtained for a limited time interval of a few solar cycles and, bearing in mind uncertainties of the migration-path definition, are only indicative. For the major fraction of the dataset no systematic active longitudes were found. Sporadic migration of active longitudes was identified only for Cycles 21?–?22 in the northern hemisphere and Cycle 23 in the southern hemisphere.     

A Full-Sun Magnetic Index from Helioseismology Inferences

Solar magnetic indices are used to model the solar irradiance and ultimately to forecast it. However, the observation of such indices is generally limited to the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. Seismic maps of the far side of the Sun have proven their capability to locate and track medium–large active regions at the non-visible hemisphere. We present here the possibility of using the average signal from these seismic far-side maps, combined with similarly calculated near-side maps, as a proxy to the full-Sun magnetic activity.     

Combined low-thrust propulsion and invariant manifold trajectories to capture NEOs in the Sun–Earth circular restricted three-body problem

In this paper, a method to capture near-Earth objects (NEOs) incorporating low-thrust propulsion into the invariant manifolds technique is investigated. Assuming that a tugboat-spacecraft is in a rendez-vous condition with the candidate asteroid, the aim is to take the joint spacecraft-asteroid system to a selected periodic orbit of the Sun–Earth restricted three-body system: the orbit can be either a libration point periodic orbit (LPO) or a distant prograde periodic orbit (DPO) around the Earth. In detail, low-thrust propulsion is used to bring the joint spacecraft-asteroid system from the initial condition to a point belonging to the stable manifold associated to the final periodic orbit: from here onward, thanks to the intrinsic dynamics of the physical model adopted, the flight is purely ballistic. Dedicated guided and capture sets are introduced to exploit the combined use of low-thrust propulsion with stable manifolds trajectories, aiming at defining feasible first guess solutions. Then, an optimal control problem is formulated to refine and improve them. This approach enables a new class of missions, whose solutions are not obtainable neither through the patched-conics method nor through the classic invariant manifolds technique.     

Optimized Herschel/PACS photometer observing and data reduction strategies for moving solar system targets

The “TNOs are Cool!: A survey of the trans-Neptunian region” is a Herschel Open Time Key Program that aims to characterize planetary bodies at the outskirts of the Solar System using PACS and SPIRE data, mostly taken as scan-maps. In this paper we summarize our PACS data reduction scheme that uses a modified version of the standard pipeline for basic data reduction, optimized for faint, moving targets. Due to the low flux density of our targets the observations are confusion noise limited or at least often affected by bright nearby background sources at 100 and 160 \(\mu \) m. To overcome these problems we developed techniques to characterize and eliminate the background at the positions of our targets and a background matching technique to compensate for pointing errors. We derive a variety of maps as science data products that are used depending on the source flux and background levels and the scientific purpose. Our techniques are also applicable to a wealth of other Herschel solar system photometric observations, e.g. comets and near-Earth asteroids. The principles of our observing strategies and reduction techniques for moving targets will also be applicable for similar surveys of future infrared space projects.